Friday, May 25, 2007

Persistent Overbought State Clearing?

It's looking like the market will begin a new upswing about Wednesday next week. It's also looking like the persistently overbought rally we've been in the last couple of months, where downwaves are very limited in duration is coming to an end. I don't know if the next wave down will be bigger than the current one, or whether we'll enter into a more volatile sideways market. But it does look like that the strong low-volatility rally is at an end. At least that is what I can tell from the model. Other indicators both technical and macro-economic would suggest that this is just the beginning of a bigger correction. I'm looking forward to some day getting the "upcoming correction" behind us, so I can establish some new long-term investments in higher beta stocks and funds. Today I was a bit early in covering my positions but still got some nice gains. I couldn't believe how strong the decline was. Especially, after the headfake after the housing numbers were released. The bond market slumped in reaction but by the end of the day is back to flat. The initial reaction was that home-sales were up strongly and that meant yields would head up. But then people seemed to notice the steep fall in average house prices. Home-sales were only up because prices were down strongly.

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