After a couple of hours of coding and debugging I got the first little bit of the model decision tree to work and spit out buy and sell decisions. The output looks like this:
4895 6584.58008 1 0.00000 Stay long
4896 6653.29004 0 1.00000 R Sell Confirmed by pdD
4897 6676.62988 0 1.00000 Go long
4898 6677.93994 0 0.00000 Stay short
4899 6662.66016 0 0.00000 Stay short
4900 6708.49023 0 0.00000 Stay short
As the decision tree is far from complete, only the first two orders – long and then short – make any sense. The first number is a code for the date, the second is the closing value of the NASDAQ 100 index on the previous day (so that it's easier for me to work out where I am than the obscure date codes). Then there are codes for buy and sell and then a verbal description of the decision and why it was taken.
Luckily, writing computer code is a core practical skill for professional economists (or you should have these skills if you don't!) we took programming courses as part of our first year undergrad study.
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