Monday, October 12, 2020

Adjusting Home Price Down


In the last couple of years I have used the Corelogic house price indices to update the value of our house. But this price has gotten more and more out of touch with sales prices in our development. Well, there was only one this year and it was a lot lot lower. So, I have now redone a regression analysis of all the comparable sales since we bought here. The dependent variable is the percent premium over the original sale price when the development was new and the explanatory variables are dummy variables for each year (0,1 variables that take the value one in the relevant year). This re-values our house at AUD 810k down from 852k last year. We paid 740k at the beginning of 2015 and so this hasn't been great investment-wise as it has appreciated a lot less than the average home in this city supposedly has.

This graph shows how the premium over the original price has changed over time:

In the last year prices have fallen quite a bit. I am not sure why there has been this trend, which is out of step with the rest of the city. One possibility is that the ongoing construction of a new large denser neighboring housing development in place of low rise offices has reduced the value of our development.

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