tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22517597.post8774683173037673034..comments2024-03-03T11:13:39.377+11:00Comments on Moomin Valley: Thanksgiving ConversationmOOmhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03440274434662150925noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22517597.post-30889363240197023302006-11-27T14:04:00.000+11:002006-11-27T14:04:00.000+11:00Moom,
Thanks for the additional perspective. Just...Moom,<br />Thanks for the additional perspective. Just shows that the future is never clear:-) I will take a look at the VIX and the VXN indices.Super Saverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11172939501208456194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22517597.post-47623666761707566842006-11-27T11:30:00.000+11:002006-11-27T11:30:00.000+11:00Seems you are assuming that because we didn't see ...Seems you are assuming that because we didn't see weakness in September-October it's not going to happen. There was weakness in May-July but the Dow and S&P 500 did not make a 10% correction. Therefore, by the standard definitions the bull market that started in 2002 is ongoing and becoming one of the longest ever. The only bull markets longer than this one ended in 1962, 1987, and 1998 (saw this somewhere on Safehaven.com) with sharp crashes. This doesn't mean that this will happen again but that we shouldn't be too bullish just because the correction didn't occur in Presidential Year 2 yet. Another fact is that the yield curve remains inverted and getting more so. The 1987 and 1998 crashes did not result in recessions or major bear markets. The same outcome could occur here... or maybe not. <br /><br />Friday BTW saw a jump up in the VIX and VXN volatiltiy indices... maybe suggesting that the decline in the US stockmarket wasn't just random noise? The model is very unclear here, so I'm not invoking it.mOOmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03440274434662150925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22517597.post-18669352159987616972006-11-27T11:18:00.000+11:002006-11-27T11:18:00.000+11:00Moom,
Thanks for the update. I was interested in ...Moom,<br />Thanks for the update. I was interested in your assessments because I am expecting a bullish market for the next 6-12 months, barring any unforseen event. My prediction is based on qualitative factors, which I posted earlier this month.<br /><br />Agree fully with you on index funds. I know the statistics but I prefer to invest using my own approaches. Like you, I am tracking slightly ahead of the S&P, learning, and having fun :-)<br /><br />Good luck in 2007.Super Saverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11172939501208456194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22517597.post-30173591863647208132006-11-27T09:12:00.000+11:002006-11-27T09:12:00.000+11:00Hi Super Saver
Thanks for your nice comments. Yes...Hi Super Saver<br /><br />Thanks for your nice comments. Yes I am still using the model but market conditions haven't been good for it and my discipline and focus rather shaky and so I lost most of the profit I made earlier in the summer. I am still trying to get my act together on this though. This market rally has gone on much longer than I imagined possible so I decided not to make any more predictions. Because I am diversified across investing and trading and across currencies etc. though I am up about 14% ytd at this point which about matches the S&P 500. Sure, I could have done the same in an index fund, but I've had more fun this way :P (more importantly learnt a lot).<br /><br />moommOOmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03440274434662150925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22517597.post-59577510703243563622006-11-27T08:42:00.000+11:002006-11-27T08:42:00.000+11:00Moomin,
Had a similar experience at a holiday gath...Moomin,<br />Had a similar experience at a holiday gathering. Folks were talking about staying out of stock market because of the losses they experienced in 2001-2002. Of course, others were advocating being fully invested.<br /><br />By the way, I enjoy your discussions of the market and your model predictions. I haven't seen an update on the model recently. Are you still using it?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com