Moomin Valley

At this point the NDX futures are up 5. If this holds or even if the index were to fall 12 points or so today the model is calling for a cha...

The market rebounded a little today. Friday remains the likely timing for a more substantial upswing. That is unless we get to oversold cond...

I've been short NDX for a while and losing money. In strongly overbought situations it is hard to use "the model". Each time i...

I've been successful so far trading the Aussie Dollar on the long side - making $US814 so far (this is just futures contracts not gains ...

As many other bloggers mention, we often find ourselves having conversations about finances with people we don't usually talk to about f...

I have made the three investment decisions I've been discussing recently: 1. I am investing $7000 in the Hussman Strategic Growth Fund ...

I went to my employer's annual benefits fair on Friday. The fair is on the first day of the open enrollment period that runs till Decemb...

Today, I received a letter from the Australian Tax Office regarding my past holding of IYS . This investment sold by Deutsche Bank is in the...

Claire is blogging again about money from family . I'm the first commenter on this post. After reading some of the other comments on C...

Pair trades are one of the strategies commonly used by hedge funds. The idea is to buy a stock that is expected to perform well and short an...

Finally, I get to actual practical hedging strategies. But, first, I'll explain something about forex futures contracts. These are the c...

Diversifcation makes sense in currency trading in the same way it makes sense in stock trading and investing. For example, in the last coupl...

Most investors don't think about currency exposure and leave their portfolio in the currency of their home country. When they invest in ...

I am considering investing in the Hussman Strategic Growth Fund . This is effectively a long-short equity hedge fund in mutual fund format a...

Seems I was too hasty in lowering my goal for the year to $350,000 from $370,000. I have passed a net worth of $US350k and $A450k. So I am ...

The chart shows the last day's trading in Globex Australian Dollar Futures. I sold my position on Sunday evening when the market seemed ...

I bought into this Aussie telecom firm where the green arrow is on the chart. This was based on a tip from a Hong Kong based investor I kno...

Made $US64.30. Got in @ 0.7683 and out @ 0.7690. Each 0.0001 is worth $US10 on a single contract trade. Hopefully this won't follow the ...

I forgot to mention this, but October saw me exceed 1/3 million Dollars for the first time. US Dollars that is. I reached 1/3 million Austra...

I closed my first futures trade (short NQ (NASDAQ 100 E-Mini)) and went long (and long QQQQ and QQQQ calls too). Made 10 points on that firs...

Investment Performance Investment return in US Dollars was 2.70% vs. a 3.27% gain in the MSCI World Index, which I use as my overall benchma...

By this afternoon I felt comfortable enough with the IB software and with the market to do my first real futures trade - selling a NASDAQ 10...

I spent some time last night getting used to the IB system and making paper trades in NASDAQ 100, 10 year bond, and Australian Dollar future...

Bought 13 Australian Dollar contracts @ 0.7675. IB gives you $1M in imaginary play money and the underlying value of an Australian Dollar fu...

Paying money overseas gets easier and easier as credit card payments get more widespread internationally. But sometimes you need to pay in f...

a good trading day. I closed out the MSFT trade for a profit which was the only good thing that happened. HCBK was downgraded by Merrill Lyn...

In my existing accounts I bought some Microsoft shares this morning in anticipation of this evening's earnings release. I remain long QQ...

After faxing a copy of my driver's license to IB yesterday my IB account is finally operational. All I've done so far is log in, loo...

I just did the online retirement preparedness quiz . Like most such questionaires it didn't ask the big question about inheritance. Do p...

NetWorthIQ have a new release . The new version splits out non-owner occupied real estate. I think that is a great improvement. They also ha...

At this point there doesn't look like any way I am going to meet my original goal of getting to $370,000 by the end of this year. So I a...

Eric Falkenstein, a hedge fund manager in Minneapolis with a PhD in economics, has written a fascinating paper (warning: grad-level economi...

A Zillow for renters: Rentometer . Very cool. Oh and both my apartment and my girlfriend's are very good deals, not surprisingly :)

An interesting article in the NY Times today discusses the implications that now a minority of US households consist of married couples wit...

Again the model was stopped out today. I lost a lot of money. The majority of my profits from this experimental trading period have been los...

The old model won today as NDX ended up a couple of points and even the new "averaged stochastic" rose. But really the market didn...

I noticed today that the standard slow(5,3) stochastic began to decline today while my preferred full(5,5,3) stochastic increased steeply. T...

Million Dollar Countdown asked for some advice on introductory books on technical analysis. There are only two technical analysis books I h...

I finally got around to submitting an application for an account with Interactive Brokers . Security checks are now running before I can act...

Has anyone else noticed that Zillow hasn't updated any house prices for the last three weeks (since 9/15/06)? What's up over there?...

I upgraded to the new Beta Blogger, so that I could get faster publishing and add labels to my posts. I have long wanted to be able to categ...

If this count is correct then there could be some more upside left. But the Full(5,5,3) stoch can only rise at most to 64 tomorrow. If the i...

Investment Performance Investment return in US Dollars was -0.77% vs. a 1.19% gain in the MSCI World Index, which I use as my overall benchm...

The model stopped out. If this level holds then the model will reverse to the long stance again. The fluctuations in the last couple of week...

Yes there was a new intraday all time high (ATH) and a new closing ATH on the Dow. NDX was up a bit on the day but totally within model expe...

Not a good month, but not a terrible one either. The model gained 6.23% compared to an NDX gain of 4.71% but my trading accounts lost 3.94%....

On Tuesday the S&P 500 made a strong advance and went beyond the upper trend line of a bearish wedge that bears have been following and...

As I begin to realize that maybe I can realize my dream of financial independence much faster than I ever thought possible, I am beginning t...

Mayne Pharma is to be acquired by Hospira . It has been in a trading halt for a couple of days pending a transaction. Yesterday most comment...

Croesus Mining's administrators have provided an update on the state of negotiations to either sell Croesus' assets or recapitalize...

It ain't pretty: The chart shows the running total of profits from short term trades so far this year. As you can see I got a nice profi...

This scenario has now played out. The model is switching to short at the close today. The S&P 500 index has now had 3 weeks of sell sig...

I am reading the two books on taxes for traders that I ordered . Green's book is not as well written, but his strategies are simpler an...

Why do I keep trying to trade against the model? It doesn't make sense. I don't understand why I am doing it. But for some reason it...

Yup. The model is still long but probably Friday will turn out to be the last day of the uptrend in the stochastic. The stochastic can still...

Fin_Indie asked for me discuss how I reconcile being an economics professor and an active trader. I assume he is thinking about the efficie...

The model has now been long for a day and I am again aligned with the model and up on the month a little. This feels better. The uptrend sho...

A beautiful day here today - trying to appreciate it a little in between the things I have to do. The market has been making me nervous too ...

Yes, I am feeling very confused by the market today, even though so far I guess it is playing out the chart I posted in my last post. Just i...

For the first time today I estimated a model with weekly data. Again, I was stunned by the results - the high correlation between the foreca...

Just ordered a couple of books about tax for traders. The Tax Guide for Traders by Robert Green and The New Traders Tax Solution by Ted Te...

August was another good month. Net worth increased by $14,000 to $330k, investment return was 3.61%, and total investment income $11380. Ex...

Another month has gone by trading "the model". I have further improved my trading rules and produced a decent performance for bot...

This rally is looking pretty dead here . Based on the prices earlier this morning my model would have switched to long, and I got close to p...

My indicators derived from the stochastic were in exactly the same pattern as they are now twice in 2005. Once in mid to late February and o...

Bulls and bears both seem confused at this point. One bear calls for a week of sideways action. This morning the Federal Reserve did a mass...

Seems this weekend there is stuff everywhere on the bursting housing bubble. Too much to post! One of the best is this powerpoint slide show...

It might seem like all I've been doing lately is trading. But I also have been adjusting my long-term investment positions. I am cutting...