Moomin Valley

Personal Finance, Investing, and Economics

Wednesday, January 31, 2007

A More Sophisticated Approach to Portfolio Construction

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I don't think this article is as novel as the author and the blogger are making out. All it really says is build a balanced portfolio o...
2 comments:
Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Merger Mania

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Two of my stocks are now in merger talks: Powertel - a small Aussie telecom firm - and Symbion Health - an Aussie healthcare firm (what el...
2 comments:
Monday, January 29, 2007

Indexing vs. Active Management Again

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New research attempts to do a better job at assessing whether indexing or active management performs better for long-only mutual funds. The...
Sunday, January 28, 2007

Don't Worry So Much About Saving Enough for Retirement

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The NY Times discusses something I have commented on from time to time. Most people in the US end up saving enough for retirement. Poverty ...
5 comments:
Friday, January 26, 2007

Overnight Trading Proving its Worth

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I'd credit a signficant portion of the rising profits I blogged about in yesterday's post to adoption of the overnight trading tac...
3 comments:
Wednesday, January 24, 2007

IB Account Profit and Loss Curve

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The chart shows the cumulative profit in my Interactive Brokers account since I opened it in late October 2006 trade by trade. All closed tr...
2 comments:
Tuesday, January 23, 2007

Cushion of Profits

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I've managed to build my Interactive Brokers account which I use for trading futures up to $12,000. I originally put $10k into the accou...
Sunday, January 21, 2007

Small Caps and Small Funds

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Following up from the discussion about mutual fund costs , Friday's WSJ had an article about top performing small cap funds (pointed out...
Wednesday, January 17, 2007

Five Things You Probably Don't Know About Me

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I finally got tagged by Clifford with this so-called "meme" that is all over the blogosphere. So here goes: 1. I was born on the ...
3 comments:

Blame it on the Nucleus Accumbens

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My insula must be very active!
Monday, January 15, 2007

Mutual Fund Costs are not Important!

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I'm fed up with hearing how people should look at the expense ratios of mutual funds when deciding which to invest in as if that was the...
6 comments:
Sunday, January 14, 2007

The Croesus Mining Saga Continues

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It now looks like Croesus mining shares will again be traded on the Australian Stock Exchange. A reverse split of 1 for 15 and a new capita...
Friday, January 12, 2007

Nobody Ever Went Broke by Taking a Profit, or Should you Let Your Winners Run?

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Beginning (and more experienced traders too) are often confused by the conflicting advice they get from different sources. Some argue that b...
Thursday, January 11, 2007

Annual Report 2006: Part V

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I promised that yesterday's post would be the last in this series, but then I came up with a new idea: the contribution of each security...
Wednesday, January 10, 2007

Annual Report 2006: Part IV

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This is the final part of the annual report where I review my current investment allocation and strategy: This is a screen shot of part of t...

Weak Economy, Low Inflation, Record Low Bond Yields?

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John Mauldin forwarded his subscribers (subscription is free) an interesting article by Hoisington and Hunt today. They point to low inflat...
Monday, January 08, 2007

Annual Report 2006: Part III

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The following table compares my rates of return on investment to the MSCI World Index and the S&P 500 Total Return Index: Both those ind...

Sold Telecom NZ

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I sold all my shares in Telecom NZ . I've owned this stock since 2000 when they took over AAPT - an Australian telecom start-up which I ...

Annual Report 2006: Part II

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A focus of many who seek financial independence is building passive income. Payments that come without you having to do any work for them. M...
Sunday, January 07, 2007

Annual Report 2006: Part I

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This is my first annual report. I covered some basics a few days ago . Here are the more or less final numbers for income, expenditure, and ...
2 comments:

Changing Distribution Method

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I've decided to stop reinvesting the distributions from my non-retirement Australian mutual funds managed by Colonial First State and re...

December Report

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Got back Friday from a long trip to Vermont and am getting up to speed - the coming week will be spent mainly on preparations for teaching t...
Monday, January 01, 2007

Accounts Restatement

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As I am tidying up my accounting spreadsheets for the end of 2006 I am also fixing some issues from the last several years. The major issue ...
2 comments:
Sunday, December 31, 2006

Missing Retirement Contribution

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My missing retirement contribution is now showing up on TIAA-CREF's website. But it's been parked in a money market fund despite my ...

TFS Capital Distribution

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So far I am very happy with my investment in TFS Capital's Market Neutral Fund . The fund distribution for 2006 has just been announced:...
4 comments:

Initial Assessment for December and 2006

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It will take quite a while it seems till I have final figures for December and 2006. One reason is that my supplemental 403b plan isn't ...
Friday, December 29, 2006

Hedged Trading

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Another new idea. Seem to be a lot of these as I struggle to find a method that fits my psychology well and uses the model signals. Trade 1 ...
Thursday, December 28, 2006

Buy Signal?

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NDX stock futures ran up a lot overnight but are now retreating. NDX needs to be about +5 from the close to trigger a crossing of the moving...
Wednesday, December 27, 2006

Pair Trade Update

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Just checking how the "pair trade" is working out. The concept was fine but if I think of just NCT and IYR in isolation I shorted...

NQ Chart

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A possible Elliott-Wave interpretation of the market action of the last month (using the NQ futures chart) ... we would be currently in wave...

Oversold!

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I just realized that in fact we are now in "oversold" conditions - the stochastic oscillator is below 20. This hasn't happened...
Monday, December 25, 2006

How Could I Add $105k to Net Worth?

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2006's results (to be reported in detail after January 1) were helped by foreign exchange gain and a small ($6-7k) inheritance amount. ...
Sunday, December 24, 2006

2007 Net Worth Goal

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Though we haven't yet completed 2006 I have added my 2007 net worth goal to the sidebar. $470,000. At this point I look like reaching $3...
3 comments:
Saturday, December 23, 2006

Overnight Trading

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I'm struggling to develop a trading strategy which won't involve me staring at the market all day. The idea behind developing the ...
2 comments:

Santa Rally?

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The market has been going up since July so maybe it is rather late in the day to talk about the "traditional" year-end "Santa...
Thursday, December 21, 2006

Don't Add to Successful Positions?

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Brett Steenbarger writes in his blog to take some profits when a trade works out. This seems to run counter to the idea of letting winners...
Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Volatile Weather and Markets and the Demise of Mutual Funds?

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This morning there was snow on the ground here in Burlington, VT and there were occasionally snow showers throughout the day. The markets op...
Tuesday, December 19, 2006

Closing the Australian Beta Trade

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As the model has now switched to sell, I closed out the Australian positions I opened to increase my portfolio's beta. The results are ...
3 comments:

Early Reversal

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Today's action resulted in a new downtrend starting earlier than expected.... though my old acquaintance Ground Zero was already short ....
Saturday, December 16, 2006

SEC Plans to Increase Net Worth Required to Invest in Hedge Funds

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To $2.5million . I don't understand why the U.S. authorities want to keep hedge funds as a club only for the rich, which is the opposite...
2 comments:

Perfect Storm

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This morning's CPI and wage data. Stocks and bonds soared and the US Dollar dropped on the news. Perfect for more my portfolio. But will...
Friday, December 15, 2006

Two More Australian Positions

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Just bought 1000 shares of NWS.AX and WDC.AX . The former - the News Corporation - is one of my favorite trading vehicles and it was down a...
Thursday, December 14, 2006

Bullish?

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After the market managed to close up slightly and stay within the triangle the model is still forecasting upside for the next several days. ...
2 comments:

Surprisingly Strong Retail Sales

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U.S. retail sales were up 1.1% in November . The consensus forecast was 0.2%. As a result, stocks and the U.S. dollar are up and bonds down....
Wednesday, December 13, 2006

FOMC Day

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And I gingerly stepped back into the market... So far, just one NQ Mar 07 contract @ 1805.50. If an uptrend takes hold I may add to it. Thou...
Tuesday, December 12, 2006

I Know What's Going to Happen...

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but don't do anything about it.... same story as last week. The model forecast today as a down day, but my read of the intraday (and dai...
Monday, December 11, 2006

Hyperopia

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Interesting academic article which I found from today's New York Times Magazine . I've pondered whether some PF bloggers, particula...
3 comments:
Saturday, December 09, 2006

Risk Aversion

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Seems I've become very risk averse. That's why I set such a tight stop yesterday morning. But that resulted in me losing money on a ...
Friday, December 08, 2006

Ouch - Stopped Out!

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So far it looks like I predicted the direction of the market correctly yesterday. Had a meeting from 9-11 this morning and I set a stop. The...
1 comment:
Thursday, December 07, 2006

Model Switches to Sell

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The model switched to sell at today's close. If the NDX had closed above 1802 the model would have remained on buy. This is a rather neg...
Saturday, December 02, 2006

November Report

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Investment Performance Investment return in US Dollars was 2.67% vs. a 2.88% gain in the MSCI World Index, which I use as my overall benchma...
Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Model Forecasts - Trading Diary

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At this point the NDX futures are up 5. If this holds or even if the index were to fall 12 points or so today the model is calling for a cha...

Tuesday Update

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The market rebounded a little today. Friday remains the likely timing for a more substantial upswing. That is unless we get to oversold cond...
Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Trading Update

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I've been short NDX for a while and losing money. In strongly overbought situations it is hard to use "the model". Each time i...
2 comments:
Monday, November 27, 2006

Forex Update

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I've been successful so far trading the Aussie Dollar on the long side - making $US814 so far (this is just futures contracts not gains ...
Saturday, November 25, 2006

Thanksgiving Conversation

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As many other bloggers mention, we often find ourselves having conversations about finances with people we don't usually talk to about f...
5 comments:
Tuesday, November 21, 2006

Investment Decisions

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I have made the three investment decisions I've been discussing recently: 1. I am investing $7000 in the Hussman Strategic Growth Fund ...
3 comments:
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mOOm
I'm an economist and an active investor and currently live in Australia. I'm a global investor though I focus on investments in the Anglophone world and particularly in Australia. This blog tracks investment performance and discusses personal finance, investing, and trading from an economic perspective. In the picture, Moomin is looking for treasure.
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