Moomin Valley

Personal Finance, Investing, and Economics

Thursday, January 31, 2008

Dumped the Hedge

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Too late, but hopefully it was the correct move. Market still seems to be rallying at this point. I should still have a positive trading mon...
Tuesday, January 29, 2008

NNDS Releases Great Results

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One of my recent investments, NDS, released great quarterly results . With a record of rapidly growing earnings and free cash flow close to ...

Hedged

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Today's moves: 01/28/2008 15:02:21 Sold 100 XLF @ 27.7801 01/28/2008 15:03:16 Sold 100 IBKR @ 33.18 01/28/2008 15:06:33 Sold Shor...
1 comment:
Monday, January 28, 2008

NASDAQ 100 / Russell 2000 Divergence and the CBI Indicator

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Rob Hanna presents lots of interesting studies on his blog Quantifiable Edges . His latest analysis has highly bullish implications. His CB...

U.S. Tax Rebate Calculator

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I found a link to this tax rebate calculator on Boston Gal's blog. It calculates how much of a rebate you should get under the U.S. st...

Symbion Talks to Resume?

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Talks between Primary Health Care (PRY.AX) and Healthscope (HSP.AX) are likely to start soon on what to do about Symbion (SYB.AX). I follow...

Short Term Trends: Asia vs. America

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Though my US (NDX and SPX) models switched to short at Friday's close, the Australian and Japanese models are still long with no possibi...
Sunday, January 27, 2008

Ten Year Low in Bullishness

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Ten year low in bullishness . As you'll see these low levels of bullishness tend to be at market bottoms not tops. The contrarian approa...

Is Apple a Bargain?

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After the recent fall in price of AAPL, which I suffered from (but only with a 25 share position - my initial position in any single industr...
3 comments:

Recession and the Stock Market

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According to the NBER the 1990 U.S. recession lasted from July 1990 to March 1991 . This is what the U.S. stockmarket did during this period...
2 comments:
Saturday, January 26, 2008

Stimulus

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Not only does a large part of the stimulus package go to groups who are unlikely to spend it , but by the time they send out the checks any ...
1 comment:

Market Update

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I should explain that what I've been trying to do the last several days is position myself in some longer term investments while trying ...
2 comments:
Friday, January 25, 2008

Update

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We've bounced another $4k off the low point and are now only down $16k for the month. I've now made a profit of about $US750 in trad...
Thursday, January 24, 2008

Game Plan

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Next Wednesday's FOMC meeting is one day beyond the forecast horizon of my model. At this stage the model is saying to be long till the ...

Boulder Total Return Fund

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Is today's purchase . I used up the spare cash in my Roth IRA. I had been trying to trade that cash but the amount is small and it's...
Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Shift in Allocation

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Things don't look as bad today as yesterday . At this point I've shifted 10% of the portfolio into stocks as well as a little into ...

After Hours Stock Trading is Dangerous

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My stop order on AAPL didn't work. I then tried to sell and nothing happened. This was with IB. This is too dangerous. I doubt I try tha...

Bought LTR, FF, and BWLD

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Was thinking about SHLD but decided against it. Short-term (at least) mistake. Thought about the bounce spread trade - long XLY and XLF and...
Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Strong Weak Sector Pair Trade

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An interesting idea - one could do this with sector SPDR's .

Net Worth and Portfolio Update

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Our net worth is down around $US39k (AUD 36k) month to date. The portfolio has lost 9.7% in USD terms or 7.8% in AUD terms. On the other han...

Focusing My Effort

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Trading SPI (Australian futures) and the Nikkei futures under simulation today. Again, I make money trading the Aussie index but can't s...
2 comments:
Monday, January 21, 2008

Tried to Trade the Nikkei with Real Money

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Did two trades. Both lost. I think I was overenthusiastic to put the trades on despite not very strong signals. Luckily I used stops properl...
1 comment:
Sunday, January 20, 2008

Solution to the Trading Puzzle

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A week ago I put up a "Trading Puzzle" on the blog, asking what simple strategies resulted in the blue and green equity curves. T...
2 comments:

Investment Returns in the Millennial Decade

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The source of this table is this week's edition of Barron's, which I subscribe to. US stocks have not been a good investment so far ...
Saturday, January 19, 2008

Leucadia National

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I bought some shares in Leucadia National, which has long been on my watchlist. Essentially it is a listed private equity firm. They should ...
Friday, January 18, 2008

Should I Go to Live Daytrading?

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My last two weeks of simulated trading have gone very well. I'm trading in a disciplined and profitable fashion. Here are the results of...

AAPL Trade

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Doing a small long AAPL trade. Price should rise into options expiry in theory after being beaten down - traders redeeming ITM put options p...
Thursday, January 17, 2008

First European Stock Investment

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I bought 40 shares of Bekaert - a Belgian firm that mainly focuses on steel wire products (including tyre wires) as well as some high tech ...

New Private Equity Investment

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Yup, another new investment. ING Private Equity Access . I heard about this one from Enough Wealth . He sold 20,000 shares and still holds 8...

New Investments

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PeopleSupport and NDS . PeopleSupport is a takeover play. There is an offer for $17 on the table and it could be raised... maybe. The compa...
Wednesday, January 16, 2008

No Takers for the Trading Puzzle?

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So far no-one has commented on the trading puzzle . The strategies are very simple . At the end of the week I will reveal all, whether I ha...
Sunday, January 13, 2008

How Much Does it Cost to Get Married?

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You hear a lot about $30k plus weddings. Our wedding will be small and simple. Having few guests obviously reduces costs. That's not on ...
4 comments:
Saturday, January 12, 2008

Trading Puzzle

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The red in the chart is the NASDAQ 100 index. The blue and green are two simple trading strategies. The blue strategy has a beta of 0.84 to ...
2 comments:
Friday, January 11, 2008

What is My Trading Niche?

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I can't handle overnight trading. At least not any time soon. It makes me way to anxious. Wanting to stay up all night watching the US m...

Dumb Tricks with Order Entry

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I woke up this morning to find I had a short position in the NASDAQ futures I didn't know about! Unfortunately, the market was up. I clo...
Thursday, January 10, 2008

Jumping the Gun

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I jumped the gun and went long the Nikkei and Australian Index before their models formally signalled to do so. I guess I was overenthusiast...

Annual Report: Asset Allocation

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The table shows our asset allocation at the account and security level at the end of 2007 (before my recent flurry of trades). The split by ...

Thursday Trading Update

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The NASDAQ didn't disappoint . So I sold my remaining BZH put, bought 100 NCT and 1000 SPI (Australian Index) call warrants. This is my ...
Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Another Trading Update

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Just bought my first Nikkei Futures contract - a mini contract that is worth $13,000 or so. This is a model based trade, which I'll hold...

Using the Model to Trade Australian Warrants?

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I've been papertrading the Australian Stock Index Futures and I think I am beginning to get the hang of it. This is daytrading. The cont...

Trade Update

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I sold half the SBUX position to take some profits and got stopped out of the QQQQ position. Before I went to bed I moved my stop up from $4...
Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Cramer Revisionism

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Cramer's revisionism . Cool video pastiche.

First Real Trade of 2008

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The slow stochastics crossed over on NDX so the model is long at the close. My models have been doing very well recently. I now have four: ...
1 comment:
Monday, January 07, 2008

Annual Report: Income, Expenditure, and Net Worth Gain

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Here are last year's number for comparison. Compared to last year we spent more than twice as much (even though we were only spending a...
Friday, January 04, 2008

Annual Report: Investments and Trades

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I've already reported on annual investment and trading cash flows and rates of return . Today, I break things down into how much was ma...
Thursday, January 03, 2008

Move is Complete

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Snork Maiden's stuff arrived today, finally, after quarantine delays. They found some insect in the container. Now our apartment looks l...
1 comment:

December 2007 Report

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All figures are in US Dollars (USD) unless otherwise stated. This month saw a fall in net worth in US Dollar terms partly due to the fall in...
Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Stops: The Key to Success in Day Trading

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I wanted to give this post a positive title. All experienced traders know that the key to being profitable is to set stop losses and use the...
3 comments:

U.S. Restaurant Stocks

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Take a look at the charts of these U.S. restaurant stocks: Starbucks Cheesecake Factory Darden Ruth's Chris Ruby Tuesday Buffalo Wild Wi...
Tuesday, January 01, 2008

Goals for 2008

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Yesterday, I reported on performance relative to my goals for 2007. I've discussed why I think my earlier goals for 2008 were unrealis...
2 comments:

Trading Consistency

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A very interesting blogpost about trading consistency. The bottom line is that you need to take as many trades as possible within your syst...
1 comment:
Monday, December 31, 2007

2007 Goals Review

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We didn't meet any of the goals we set for the year but we did go a considerable way in the right direction: 1. Increasing net worth fr...
1 comment:
Sunday, December 30, 2007

Trading in the Zone: Review

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I've now read Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas. There are lots of reviews that give the book high praise. My review sounds very crit...
Saturday, December 29, 2007

Phoenix Market Neutral Fund Changes Managers

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A follow up to the story I reported earlier this year about TFS Capital's approach to the directors of the Phoenix Market Neutral Fund,...
Friday, December 28, 2007

Capitulation on Symbion

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Primary Health Care (PRY.AX) extended their takeover offer for Symbion Health (SYB.AX). The takeover is for $4.10 in cash but Symbion is tra...
3 comments:
Thursday, December 27, 2007

Trading vs. Investing

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Snork Maiden commented on Tuesday's post "If we earned so much more from passive investments and long-term capital gains than from...
Tuesday, December 25, 2007

Trading and Investing Cash Flows for 2008

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I'll be doing comprehensive reporting on the year's activity and performance later in January but as the mutual fund distributions a...
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mOOm
I'm an economist and an active investor and currently live in Australia. I'm a global investor though I focus on investments in the Anglophone world and particularly in Australia. This blog tracks investment performance and discusses personal finance, investing, and trading from an economic perspective. In the picture, Moomin is looking for treasure.
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