Moomin Valley

Personal Finance, Investing, and Economics

Tuesday, September 25, 2018

Internal Rate of Return and Private Equity

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Private equity funds like to report the returns on their investment using the internal rate of return metric. The IRR is the discount rate ...

Firetrail IPO

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Another hedge fund IPO in the coming month. This one is also managed by Commonwealth Securities and so I could participate via the broker f...
Sunday, September 23, 2018

2017-18 Taxes

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Here are my taxes for another year: A lot of items are down on last year. Foreign source income and unfranked distributions are up becaus...
Saturday, September 22, 2018

Longer Term Planning

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I was rejected for the two jobs I recent applied for. One in Australia after interview and one in the UK pre-interview. So, it looks like we...
1 comment:
Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Mean Reversion vs. Momentum Strategies

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This is an interesting interview. About half way through he makes a deep point that if you use an oscillator type indicator and sell it whe...
Monday, September 17, 2018

How Many Households in Australia are Rich?

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Every couple of years the Australian Bureau of Statistics surveys the distribution of household wealth in Australia. The most recent data is...

If You Follow This Advice You Won't Be Able to Buy a House

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If you follow this advice from Ramit Sethi , you won't have any money to buy a house or start a business, unless you have a lot left ove...

Mercantile's Bidder Statement Provides No Rationale for 9 Cent Offer Price

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Mercantile (MVT.AX) released a bidder statement for Yellow Brick Road (YBR.AX) which provides no justification whatsoever for the 9 cent per...
Wednesday, September 05, 2018

August 2018 Report

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The Australian Dollar fell from USD 0.7432 to USD 0.7201. The MSCI World Inde x rose 0.83% and the S&P 500 rose 3.26%. The ASX 200 rose...
Thursday, August 30, 2018

Yellowbrickroad and Tribeca Natural Resources

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Yellow Brick Road (YBR.AX) is an Australian mortgage broker and financial planning company. Mercantile Investment Company (MVT.AX), who...

Just Follow the Model

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Yesterday, based on looking at the candlestick patterns and Oscar Carboni's caution about a possible "holiday reversal" , I...
Saturday, August 25, 2018

That Worked Pretty Well

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The model passed the test . We are now back to a positive return from trading for the month.
Friday, August 24, 2018

Started Trading Again on the Long Side

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Following up on this post , I took the next long signal from the model, which was yesterday. I got in at NQ=7418.75, which was almost the l...
Sunday, August 19, 2018

NetWorthShare

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NetWorthIQ seems to have died. So, following up on EnoughWealth's blogpost , I have opened an account with NetWorthShare . It's surp...

Does it Ever Pay to Go Short?

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I did some tinkering with the model to avoid the kind of false buy signal that resulted in the stop out last week . I applied Hodrick-Presco...
Thursday, August 16, 2018

Stopped Out...

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My long position was stopped out on Wednesday. Now back to more or less zero profit on this account - still have a positive overall result f...
Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Losing Model Trade and Trading Badly

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The downside didn't last long... Model switches back to long this morning. The short trade lost the model 0.4%. Due to bad timing - clos...
Saturday, August 11, 2018

Turkey Turns the Outlook Bearish

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The down day on Friday in response the Turkish crisis switched the model to short going forward. Based on the 3 hour stochastics, there coul...
Thursday, August 09, 2018

Looking Bullish

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The model state is almost identical with that on 10 January this year. That's presumably pretty bullish for the next week or so... Of co...
Wednesday, August 08, 2018

Backtesting and Hedged Portfolios

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So, I backtested for all of 2017 using the latest model rules. The model makes money for the year, but there are several losing months, and ...

Soybeans

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To try something different I tried a soybean daytrade. Made $107 in 17 minutes, so not bad :) But I only got the beginning of a much big...
Tuesday, August 07, 2018

Volatility and Return

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The graph shows the average true range (ATR) divided by the closing NQ futures price for all 14 day periods in 2018 so far and the averag...
Friday, August 03, 2018

Trading on 2nd August

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The market came with 4 points of stopping out the long position but then took off to the upside as soon as the New York market opened. Gain...
Thursday, August 02, 2018

July 2018 Report

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This month was the fourth month of the futures trading experiment. The first month was the model development phase, while May and June were...

Back to the Long Side

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Closed short and opened long @ 7261.5. Stop is @ 7211. The model switched to long today but the signal is close to remaining short and the...
Saturday, July 28, 2018

Friday 27th July Trading

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Finally we had some good downside on Friday with the NQ futures falling 126 points to 7299.75 – each point is $20 per contract. I had a stra...
Friday, July 27, 2018

Trading in 2018 is Objectively Better

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I computed my average gain per NQ contract traded in 2006-2008 compared to in 2018. In 2006-08, on average I gained 0.46 points per contrac...
Tuesday, July 24, 2018

Tactical and Strategic Trading

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After seeing a big profit disappear again a few times, I think I am going to adopt a combination of strategic and tactical trades now that I...
Monday, July 23, 2018

The Kelly Criterion

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There is a lot of incorrect information on the web about applying the Kelly criterion in the stockmarket. It is very different to applying ...

Very Good Service from Interactive Brokers

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We phoned Interactive Brokers about the login problem. They have a system issue. They set up the account so it can accept a temporary securi...
Sunday, July 22, 2018

Can't Log Into Account

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As of Saturday morning I am not receiving the test messages from Interactive Brokers that I need to log into the account. I sent a text to m...
Friday, July 20, 2018

Switching to Short

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The model has switched to short as at the open of today's Globex session (8am Eastern Australian Time, 6pm New York Time). I went short ...
Thursday, July 19, 2018

Selling Everything

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Well, in my mother's former account. Apparently the main (international) bank doesn't care that we the estate hasn't yet complet...
Tuesday, July 17, 2018

Stopped Out Again

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So, I put on my second trade of the month - long NQ - and was stopped out again, losing $1100 this time. The stop actually saved about $300 ...
Monday, July 16, 2018

Model Decisions for the Year So Far

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The chart shows each short and long decision the model has made in the NASDAQ 100 index since the beginning of the year. The letter S or ...

New Investment: BlueSky Alternatives Fund

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I had read back in April about BlueSky's battle with activist hedge fund Glaucus . As a result, the share price of the management com...
Sunday, July 15, 2018

Position Size

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One of the main ideas in traditional momentum trading wisdom is that as volatility increases your position size should decrease. This is one...

Turtle Trading

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I have been reading the Complete Turtle Trader , trying to get some inspiration. Back in the early 1980s, futures trader Richard Dennis h...
Saturday, July 14, 2018

The Index Gives Better Trading Signals than Futures Prices Do

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It turns out that the NASDAQ 100 Index gives better trading signals than the NQ futures prices themselves do. I think the reason for this is...
Wednesday, July 11, 2018

Futures Prices vs. Index Values

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I didn't trade while I was in Japan because my mobile phone wasn't receiving the text messages I needed to log in to my trading acco...
Tuesday, July 03, 2018

June 2018 Report

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This month was the third month of the futures trading experiment. The first month was the model development phase, while last month was abo...
Monday, July 02, 2018

Trading Update: Tokyo Edition

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So far it looks like the "old" more systematic model won today. US stocks are down. I'm not trading as I was flying to Japan a...
Sunday, July 01, 2018

Changing the Model Back and Researching the Model

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I'm not happy with this model rule that I added on 27th April. It's not very systematic. So, I dropped it, while keeping rules adde...
Saturday, June 16, 2018

Gold 2048: The Future of Gold

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This report seems bullish for the price of gold over the next 30 years. Continued growth in India and limited gold discoveries recently see...
1 comment:
Wednesday, June 06, 2018

Mercantile Makes Offer to Take Over IPE

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Mercantile Capital (MVT.AX) has made an offer to take over IPE.AX at AUD 0.0775 per share. I've discussed Mercantile's interest in I...
Sunday, June 03, 2018

Tax Optimization for Trading

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I still have some capital losses left over from the financial crisis. I will probably use them up for this tax year ending 30 June. After th...
Friday, June 01, 2018

May 2018 Report

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Another very active month financially. The Australian stock market rebounded quite strongly but then turned over as other markets did. This...
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About Me

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mOOm
I'm an economist and an active investor and currently live in Australia. I'm a global investor though I focus on investments in the Anglophone world and particularly in Australia. This blog tracks investment performance and discusses personal finance, investing, and trading from an economic perspective. In the picture, Moomin is looking for treasure.
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