Moomin Valley

Personal Finance, Investing, and Economics

Tuesday, December 25, 2018

What's Your Forecast for the Stock Market?

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My brother asked me what my forecast for the stock market was. Here is what I wrote to him: "Well, I’ve been surprised how weak it ha...
Friday, December 21, 2018

No Interest on More Than $2 Million Deposit?

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My brother and I have between us more than USD 2 million in cash in an account at UBS – most of the money we inherited – that we have been ...
Monday, December 17, 2018

Will Listed Investment Companies Restructure if Labor Eliminates Refundability of Franking Credits?

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As you probably know if you live in Australia, Labor plans to abolish the refundability of franking credits - the tax credits attached to di...
Sunday, December 09, 2018

Was It a Good Decision to Switch to Defined Contribution Superannuation?

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Back in 2009 when I started with my current employer, I carried out a cost-benefit analysis to see whether it made sense to stay in the ...
Saturday, December 08, 2018

Target Portfoilo Performance November 2018

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The target portfolio gained 0.22% in AUD terms. Offsetting losses in Ausrtalian shares, gold, and unhedged foreign shares there were gains i...
Tuesday, December 04, 2018

FIRE?

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I just read what was a controversial blogpost at Financial Samurai:" Why $5 Million Is Barely Enough To Retire Early With A Family ...
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Monday, December 03, 2018

November 2018 Report

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Volatility in financial markets continued this month but I hardly traded at all and for us it was a fairly quiet month financially with mo...
Thursday, November 29, 2018

Put Writing Strategy

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ERN recently posted again about his put writing strategy. Despite the market falls in October he ended up for the month. This seems to be ...
Saturday, November 24, 2018

Trust Accounts

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As I mentioned before , my mother's will leaves money for each of her grandchildren – currently six of them including Moomin. They ca...

Self Managed Superannuation

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I am exploring setting up a self managed superannuation fund (SMSF). I want to do this so that I can implement our target portfolio investm...
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Wednesday, November 14, 2018

Regal to Float Hedge Fund LIC on ASX

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Regal Funds Management plans to float a hedge fund LIC (closed end fund) on the ASX in March or April next year. Regal was on my future pot...
Sunday, November 11, 2018

Got Online Access to My US Bank Account

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I couldn't get online access to my account at Keybank because they required a US phone number as a security measure. This meant I also c...
Saturday, November 10, 2018

Private Equity and Venture Capital Indices

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I commented that I didn't have a good proxy for private equity and venture capital. So, I went and found one and came up with these ind...
Thursday, November 08, 2018

Target Portfoilo Performance

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In October the target portfolio lost 2.83% in Australian Dollar terms. In USD terms the model portfolio lost 3.43%. This model portfolio d...
Wednesday, November 07, 2018

Model Performed Badly Since I Stopped Trading

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Since I decided to temporarily stop trading the model has performed badly losing about 9% while the NASDAQ 100 index is down about 4%. It s...
Saturday, November 03, 2018

October 2018 Report

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As I'm sure you know, this month was very volatile, which is good for trading but not for the performance of investments generally. Thi...
1 comment:
Wednesday, October 24, 2018

Hearts and Minds IPO Oversubscribed?

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I just got an email with my allocation of shares in this IPO . It's 82% of what I requested and the settlement dates and first trading ...
Friday, October 19, 2018

Overfitted

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When I started trying to backtest the model with my new program the performance was bad, worse than I expected and worse than backtests I...
Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Hearts and Minds IPO

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Another Australian IPO of a listed investment company (closed end fund). This one has a twist – there are no management fees and the direct...

Results for the S&P 500

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These are the results of the year to date for the S&P 500 model, again without stops. As volatility is lower than the NASDAQ index, re...
Tuesday, October 16, 2018

More Progress on Programming the Trading Model

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Now this is a nice equity curve! This was produced by the computer making daily decisions for each day this year so far, using the full ...

Firetrail Cancels IPO

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I looked at the prospectus but decided not to invest . Apparently they got more than the minimum funds raised but claim that there aren'...
Sunday, October 14, 2018

NQ Equity Curve

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This is the equity curve trading NQ futures since the beginning of the trading experiment. It starts at about USD 4k because that was the...
Saturday, October 13, 2018

Started to Code the Decision Tree

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After a couple of hours of coding and debugging I got the first little bit of the model decision tree to work and spit out buy and sell d...

Should Have Done the Long Trade

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Market went up strongly. Model is still long for Monday. But I'm still not in. I needed to take a break from trading. This is why I need...
Friday, October 12, 2018

Rescued the Bad Trade

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I stayed up and closed at 7119.75 the bad trade where I went long at NQ = 7145. So in the end I only lost USD 500 on that trade and am still...
Thursday, October 11, 2018

Great at Analysis No Good at Trading

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I'm great at analysis and no good at trading. Just like this guy . This is why I need a computer to trade for me. That will now be the t...

Australian Corporation Tax

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The Australian government has lowered the rate of corporation tax on small businesses and planned to lower the rate on larger businesses t...

I Will Do What the Model Says to Do

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Maybe today will finally knock my tendency to not follow the model out of me, but I kind of doubt it. I am getting better though. Today, ...
Wednesday, October 10, 2018

New Investment: Pershing Square Holdings

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I made a small (1% of net assets) investment in Pershing Square Holdings (PSH.L). This is a closed end fund trading on the London Stock ...
Thursday, October 04, 2018

Generation Global Share Fund Closed to New Investors

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It turns out that the Generation Global Share Fund is closed to new investors and so I couldn't do the fund switch I tried to do yesterd...

Moominmama Allocation

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Following up from yesterday's post on delevering in my retail superannuation (retirement) account, here is the desired allocation compar...
Wednesday, October 03, 2018

Delevering

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I just made a big switch in my Colonial First State superannuation account to reduce risk. Stock markets still look bullish but the Fed sho...
Tuesday, October 02, 2018

September 2018 Report

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The Australian Dollar rose from USD  0.7201 to USD 0.7228. The MSCI World Index rose 0.48% and the S&P 500 rose 0.57%. The ASX 200 fell...
Tuesday, September 25, 2018

Internal Rate of Return and Private Equity

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Private equity funds like to report the returns on their investment using the internal rate of return metric. The IRR is the discount rate ...

Firetrail IPO

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Another hedge fund IPO in the coming month. This one is also managed by Commonwealth Securities and so I could participate via the broker f...
Sunday, September 23, 2018

2017-18 Taxes

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Here are my taxes for another year: A lot of items are down on last year. Foreign source income and unfranked distributions are up becaus...
Saturday, September 22, 2018

Longer Term Planning

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I was rejected for the two jobs I recent applied for. One in Australia after interview and one in the UK pre-interview. So, it looks like we...
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mOOm
I'm an economist and an active investor and currently live in Australia. I'm a global investor though I focus on investments in the Anglophone world and particularly in Australia. This blog tracks investment performance and discusses personal finance, investing, and trading from an economic perspective. In the picture, Moomin is looking for treasure.
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