Performance Update

I stopped reporting these five year performance figures in my monthly reports, but I'm still tracking them, and I've added the target portfolio to the list of benchmarks.

The top panel in the table shows our portfolio performance over five years of monthly data in AUD and USD terms. Due to the fall in the AUD over this timeframe, the AUD performance is better. Also, AUD performance is far less volatile, which is part of our portfolio design.

The middle panel shows our performance relative to the five benchmarks and the bottom panel the performance of the five benchmarks. The benchmarks are the MSCI All Country Index (Gross, USD), the ASX 200 Index (including estimated franking credits), the HFRI hedge fund index (fund weighted), a monthly rebalanced portfolio of two Vanguard ETFs - VDBA and VDGR, and the Target Portfolio. Alpha and beta are estimated in regressions of our excess returns relative to either the US Fed or the RBA interest rate on the excess returns of the benchmark. The MSCI and HFRI benchmarks are in USD and the other three in AUD.

Of course the two equity indices are more volatile. The typical hedge fund is very conservative actually with very low volatility. In risk adjusted terms hedge funds return more than the other benchmarks, which is shown by the information ratio. 

We have positive alpha and lower "downside capture" relative to the three AUD benchmarks. Relative to the Target Portfolio we have a beta or almost one - meaning that a 1% increase in the excess return of the Target Portfolio is typically associated with a 0.97% increase in the excess return of our portfolio. But we also actually have a positive alpha, which shows that active management beyond tracking the target adds value. 1.5% p.a. is worth around AUD 100k per year. Actually, given the composition of the Target Portfolio, it is impossible to track it passively, as there aren't hedge fund or private equity ETFs. You need to pick specific funds.