In just under a year we went past another milestone. It's only a rough intra-month calculation. I only try to calculate things accurately at the end of each month. Hope this doesn't jinx it. 😐
The main driver is the insane move in gold this month.
In just under a year we went past another milestone. It's only a rough intra-month calculation. I only try to calculate things accurately at the end of each month. Hope this doesn't jinx it. 😐
The main driver is the insane move in gold this month.
In September, the Australian Dollar rose from USD 0.6540 to USD 0.6613 meaning that USD investment returns are better than AUD investment returns. International stock markets rose yet again, though the Australian market was down (total returns including dividends):
US Dollar Indices
MSCI World Index (gross): 3.66%
S&P 500: 3.65%
HFRI Hedge Fund Index: 0.83% (forecast)
Australian Dollar Benchmarks
ASX 200: -0.52%
Target Portfolio: 2.70% (forecast - depends on HFRI result)
Australian 60/40 benchmark: 0.83%
We gained 3.63% in Australian Dollar terms or 4.79% in US Dollar terms. So we beat all benchmarks!
Our SMSF returned 3.42% beating both Unisuper (0.60%) and PSS(AP) (0.81%).
Here is a report on the performance of investments by asset class:
Things that worked well this month:
What really didn't work:
Here are the investment performance statistics for the last five years:
The top three lines give our performance in USD and AUD terms, while the last three lines give the same statistics for four benchmarks. The middle block gives our performance relative to the indices.Our alpha relative to the ASX200 is 3.0% with a beta of only 0.49. We have much lower volatility, resulting in a information ratio of 1.49 vs. 1.19. We capture much less of the downside moves than the upside moves in the market. We also have very good performance relative to the Vanguard 60/40 portfolio with the same volatility but 4% p.a. more return. We captured 100% of the upside of this portfolio but only 60% of the downside. But as we optimize for Australian Dollar performance, our USD statistics are much worse. We do beat the HFRI hedge fund index in terms of return, but at the expense of far higher volatility. Our USD volatility is at least less than that of the MSCI index, but our return is more than four percentage points lower.
We moved a little bit away our target allocation. Our actual allocation currently looks like this:
About 65% of our portfolio is in what are often considered to be alternative assets: real estate, art, hedge funds, private equity, gold, and futures. A lot of these are listed investments or investments with daily liquidity, so our portfolio is not as illiquid as you might think.
We receive employer superannuation contributions every two weeks. We make monthly concessional contributions to Moominmama's superannuation to reach the annual cap on contributions. We contribute USD 10k each quarter to the Unpopular Ventures Rolling Fund and less frequently there will be capital calls from Aura Venture Fund II. I am now receiving TTR pension payments from both Unisuper and our SMSF and contributing more than the total of these back to my superannuation accounts. I made the following additional moves this month:
Report from Morningstar on investors' returns vs. fund returns. Due to badly timed trading, investors made 1.2% less per year than the funds they invested in. My return in USD terms for the relevant period was 6.83%, which is roughly what the average investor made. My AUD return was 9.81% over the same period!
In August, the Australian Dollar rose from USD 0.6433 to USD 0.6540 meaning that USD investment returns are better than AUD investment returns. It was our second highest spending (in nominal terms, January 2015 was the highest) month ever at AUD 27k. School fees and airfares booking coincided. Stock markets rose again (total returns including dividends):
US Dollar Indices
MSCI World Index (gross): 2.51%
S&P 500: 2.03%
HFRI Hedge Fund Index: 0.54% (forecast)
Australian Dollar Benchmarks
ASX 200: 3.30%
Target Portfolio: 0.86% (forecast - depends on HFRI result)
Australian 60/40 benchmark: 1.37%
We gained 1.07% in Australian Dollar terms or 2.76% in US Dollar terms. So we beat all the US Dollar benchmarks but under-performed relative to two of the Australian Dollar benchmarks.
Our SMSF returned 1.31% beating Unisuper (0.75%) but not PSS(AP) (1.35%).
Here is a report on the performance of investments by asset class:
The asset class returns are in currency neutral terms as the rate of return on gross assets and do not include investment expenses such as margin interest, and so the total differs from the Australian Dollar returns on net assets mentioned above. All asset classes apart from private equity had positive returns. US stocks had the greatest return and hedge funds made the largest contribution to total return.
Things that worked well this month:
What really didn't work:
Here are the investment performance statistics for the last five years:
The top three lines give our performance in USD and AUD terms, while the last three lines give the same statistics for four benchmarks. The middle block gives our performance relative to the indices.
Our alpha relative to the ASX200 is 2.9% with a beta of only 0.48. We still have much lower volatility, resulting in a information ratio of 1.42 vs. 1.12. We capture much less of the downside moves than the upside moves in the market. We also have very good performance relative to the Vanguard 60/40 portfolio with the same volatility but 4% p.a. more return. We captured 100% of the upside of this portfolio but only 60% of the downside. But as we optimize for Australian Dollar performance, our USD statistics are much worse. We do beat the HFRI hedge fund index in terms of return, but at the expense of far higher volatility. Our USD volatility is at least less than that of the MSCI index, but our return is more than four percentage points lower.
We moved a little bit away our target allocation. Our actual allocation currently looks like this:
About 65% of our portfolio is in what are often considered to be alternative assets: real estate, art, hedge funds, private equity, gold, and futures. A lot of these are listed investments or investments with daily liquidity, so our portfolio is not as illiquid as you might think.
We receive employer superannuation contributions every two weeks. We make monthly concessional contributions to Moominmama's superannuation to reach the annual cap on contributions. We contribute USD 10k each quarter to the Unpopular Ventures Rolling Fund and less frequently there will be capital calls from Aura Venture Fund II. I am now receiving TTR pension payments from both Unisuper and our SMSF and contributing more than the total of these back to my superannuation accounts. I made the following additional moves this month:
I waited for all investment returns for the financial year to be in before posting this report, though, in the end, it didn't make much difference. In June, the Australian Dollar rose from USD 0.6431 to USD 0.6559 meaning that USD investment returns are better than AUD investment returns. Stock markets rose (total returns including dividends):
US Dollar Indices
MSCI World Index (gross): 4.53%
S&P 500: 5.09%
HFRI Hedge Fund Index: 2.36%
Australian Dollar Benchmarks
ASX 200: 1.47%
Target Portfolio: 1.95%
Australian 60/40 benchmark: 1.79%
We gained 0.68% in Australian Dollar terms or gained 2.68% in US Dollar terms. So the only benchmark we beat was the HFRI. We under-performed the target portfolio because our returns for private equity and US stocks were a lot below the benchmark returns.
Here is a report on the performance of investments by asset class:
The asset class returns are in currency neutral terms as the rate of return on gross assets and do not include investment expenses such as margin interest, and so the total differs from the Australian Dollar returns on net assets mentioned above. All asset classes but gold and Australian small cap had positive returns with the strongest rate of return and the largest contribution from Australian large cap.
Things that worked well this month:
What really didn't work:
Here are the investment performance statistics for the last five years:
The top three lines give our performance in USD and AUD terms, while the last three lines give the same statistics for four benchmarks. This month, we have added the Vanguard 60/40 ETF portfolio to the set of benchmarks. The middle block gives our performance relative to the indices.
These are now measured from the end of June 2020. Our alpha relative to the ASX200 fell to 3.0% with a beta of only 0.48. We still have much lower volatility, resulting in a information ratio of 1.41 vs. 1.09. We capture much less of the downside moves than the upside moves in the market. We also have very good performance relative to the Vanguard 60/40 portfolio with the same volatility but almost 4% p.a. more return. But as we optimize for Australian Dollar performance, our USD statistics are much worse. We do beat the HFRI hedge fund index in terms of return, but at the expense of much higher volatility. Our USD volatility is at least less than that of the MSCI index, but our return is more than four percentage points lower.
We moved towards our target allocation as I again tweaked the allocation. Our actual allocation currently looks like this:
About 65% of our portfolio is in what are often considered to be alternative assets: real estate, art, hedge funds, private equity, gold, and futures. A lot of these are listed investments or investments with daily liquidity, so our portfolio is not as illiquid as you might think.
We receive employer superannuation contributions every two weeks. We make an annual concessional contribution to Moominmama's superannuation to reach the annual cap on contributions. We contribute USD 10k each quarter to the Unpopular Ventures Rolling Fund and less frequently there will be capital calls from Aura Venture Fund II. I am now receiving TTR pension payments from both Unisuper and our SMSF and contributing more than the total of these back to my superannuation accounts. (around AUD 4k net contribution per month). I made the following additional moves this month:
I was wondering how much each asset class has contributed to our total profits to date. It was easy to compute this number using the spreadsheet I use to compute monthly gains on individual investments and asset classes. The numbers are only estimates. For multi-asset class funds, I assume that each asset class in the fund has the same rate of return. So I multiply each asset class share by the total profit for the fund to get the contributions of that fund to total returns for that asset class. This is also how I compute asset class returns each month. Here are the results:
Private equity has contributed the most followed by Australian large cap and gold. Contributions of bonds and real assets are surprisingly large. They may be an artifact of how I compute the contributions from multi-asset funds like our employers' superannuation funds. Also, Commonwealth Bank is all attributed to bonds, when about half my return was from my investment in the Colonial IPO rather than my later investments in CBA hybrids. Finally, 17% of Regal Investment Fund (RF1.AX) is currently in private credit but most of my returns were made before they even invested in private credit! So, this is biased upwards.
Coincidentally, I am changing the name of the Bonds asset class to Credit. Private credit isn't bonds. It isn't even "fixed income". The category covers both private credit and bonds.
In June, the Australian Dollar fell from USD 0.6559 to USD 0.6433 meaning that USD investment returns are worse than AUD investment returns. Stock markets rose (total returns including dividends):
US Dollar Indices
MSCI World Index (gross): 1.38%
S&P 500: 2.24%
HFRI Hedge Fund Index: 0.27% (forecast)
Australian Dollar Benchmarks
ASX 200: 2.36%
Target Portfolio: 1.82% (forecast - depends on HFRI result)
Australian 60/40 benchmark: 1.90%
We gained 3.38% in Australian Dollar terms or 1.38% in US Dollar terms. So the only benchmark we didn't beat was the S&P 500. It seemed that some stocks that were beaten down at the end of the last Australian financial year rebounded strongly. A good example is Regal Partners (RPL.AX), which gained 35%. Maybe a classic case of selling for tax losses. In absolute Australian Dollar terms it was our fourth best month ever gaining AUD 203k. November 2024 was the best ever month with a gain of AUD 335k followed by January 2025 (280k) and March 2024 (229k).
Our SMSF returned 4.59% beating Unisuper (1.67%) and PSS(AP) (2.08%). This was a welcome change after five months of under-performance.
Here is a report on the performance of investments by asset class:
The asset class returns are in currency neutral terms as the rate of return on gross assets and do not include investment expenses such as margin interest, and so the total differs from the Australian Dollar returns on net assets mentioned above. All asset classes had positive returns. Australian small cap had the greatest return and hedge funds made the largest contribution to total return.
Things that worked well this month:
What really didn't work:
Here are the investment performance statistics for the last five years:
The top three lines give our performance in USD and AUD terms, while the last three lines give the same statistics for four benchmarks. This month, we have added the Vanguard 60/40 ETF portfolio to the set of benchmarks. The middle block gives our performance relative to the indices.
Our alpha relative to the ASX200 is 3.2% with a beta of only 0.49. We still have much lower volatility, resulting in a information ratio of 1.46 vs. 1.12. We capture much less of the downside moves than the upside moves in the market. We also have very good performance relative to the Vanguard 60/40 portfolio with the same volatility but 4% p.a. more return. We captured 100% of the upside of this portfolio but only 60% of the downside. But as we optimize for Australian Dollar performance, our USD statistics are much worse. We do beat the HFRI hedge fund index in terms of return, but at the expense of far higher volatility. Our USD volatility is at least less than that of the MSCI index, but our return is more than four percentage points lower.
We moved a little bit away our target allocation. Our actual allocation currently looks like this:
About 65% of our portfolio is in what are often considered to be alternative assets: real estate, art, hedge funds, private equity, gold, and futures. A lot of these are listed investments or investments with daily liquidity, so our portfolio is not as illiquid as you might think.
We receive employer superannuation contributions every two weeks. We make monthly concessional contributions to Moominmama's superannuation to reach the annual cap on contributions. We contribute USD 10k each quarter to the Unpopular Ventures Rolling Fund and less frequently there will be capital calls from Aura Venture Fund II. I am now receiving TTR pension payments from both Unisuper and our SMSF and contributing more than the total of these back to my superannuation accounts. I made the following additional moves this month:
Generation Global Fund is one of our longest held investments. I first invested in April 2008. It was a good fund but has been weaker recently. I also invested in the Acadian Global Long-Short Fund back in April 2008. But I exited in 2012 because it had underperformed and we needed the cash for our house-buying fund.
It turns out that that was about when the fund started to outperform. Its overall track record since inception has now been very good with a beta of 0.3 to the MSCI All Country World Index and an alpha of 7.7%. In the last 5 years it has done even better:
Beta has been 0.3 over the last five years too, while alpha has been even higher. I noticed because of an article in The Australian. I then went and downloaded the data from Colonial First State (CFS) and did the analysis. So, I am switching from Generation to Acadian. This will tilt the portfolio away from an overweight on US stocks and back towards hedge funds. Though this hedge fund has a strong weight on US stocks itself.
P.S. 14 June 2025
I have also decided to switch from Aspect Diversified Futures to this Acadian Fund in our SMSF. Aspect was flagged as an underperformer in our Investments Review.
I haven't managed to do either transaction yet. I found that the manager still has Moominmama's old mobile number and to change your phone number you need to use your existing phone as authentication. You can log into the account using email for authentication. So I placed a secure request inside the account to change the number. They are just refusing to do the switch at "this time" in the SMSF account. Will try again on Monday and phone them if it doesn't work.
P.P.S. 17 June 2025
I phoned CFS and they called me back. It turns out that CFS's "mezzanine" investments each have separate PDSs (prospectuses) for each fund manager. So, I had to make a new application for the Acadian Fund rather than a switch. I have now done that. So, we are halfway there. By the way, this new hedge fund investment means I am again tweaking the target portfolio to make sure it remains a good benchmark. I am raising hedge funds to 15%, reducing RoW stocks to 4%, Australian large cap to 9% and Australian small cap to 4%.
In May, the Australian Dollar rose from USD 0.6392 to USD 0.6431 meaning that USD investment returns are a bit better than AUD investment returns. Stock markets rose (total returns including dividends):
US Dollar Indices
MSCI World Index (gross): 5.81%
S&P 500: 6.29%
HFRI Hedge Fund Index: 1.30% (forecast)
Australian Dollar Benchmarks
ASX 200: 4.38%
Target Portfolio: 3.70% (forecast - depends on HFRI result)
Australian 60/40 benchmark: 3.17%
We gained 2.27% in Australian Dollar terms or gained 2.90% in US Dollar terms. So the only benchmark we are expected to beat is the HFRI. We underperformed the target portfolio because of the very high private equity returns of 14% for venture and 11% for buyout that fed into it. By comparison we earned 0.89% on our private equity investments.
Here is a report on the performance of investments by asset class:
The asset class returns are in currency neutral terms as the rate of return on gross assets and do not include investment expenses such as margin interest, and so the total differs from the Australian Dollar returns on net assets mentioned above. All asset classes but gold had positive returns with the strongest returns from Australian small cap and the largest contribution from hedge funds, mainly due to a rebound in Pershing Square Holdings.
Things that worked well this month:
What really didn't work:
Here are the investment performance statistics for the last five years:
The top three lines give our performance in USD and AUD terms, while the last three lines give the same statistics for four benchmarks. This month, we have added the Vanguard 60/40 ETF portfolio to the set of benchmarks. The middle block gives our performance relative to the indices.
These are now measured from the end of May 2020. Our alpha relative to the ASX200 fell to 3.1% with a beta of only 0.48. We still have much lower volatility, resulting in a information ratio of 1.43 vs. 1.11. We capture much less of the downside moves than the upside moves in the market. We also have very good performance relative to the Vanguard 60/40 portfolio with the same volatility but 4% p.a. more return. But as we optimize for Australian Dollar performance, our USD statistics are much worse. We do beat the HFRI hedge fund index in terms of return, but at the expense of much higher volatility. Our USD volatility is at least less than that of the MSCI index, but our return is more than three percentage points lower.
We moved strongly towards our target allocation as we completed redeployment of cash from the sales in April. Our actual allocation currently looks like this:
About 70% of our portfolio is in what are often considered to be alternative assets: real estate, art, hedge funds, private equity, gold, and futures. A lot of these are listed investments or investments with daily liquidity, so our portfolio is not as illiquid as you might think.
We receive employer superannuation contributions every two weeks. We make an annual concessional contribution to Moominmama's superannuation to reach the annual cap on contributions. We contribute USD 10k each quarter to the Unpopular Ventures Rolling Fund and less frequently there will be capital calls from Aura Venture Fund II. I am now receiving TTR pension payments from both Unisuper and our SMSF and contributing more than the total of these back to my superannuation accounts. (around AUD 4k net contribution per month). It was another busy month. I made the following additional moves this month:
US Dollar Indices
MSCI World Index (gross): 0.98%
S&P 500: -0.68%
HFRI Hedge Fund Index: 0.18% (forecast)
Australian Dollar Benchmarks
ASX 200: 3.63%
Target Portfolio: 0.58% (forecast - depends on HFRI result)
Australian 60/40 benchmark: 0.48%
We lost 0.93% in Australian Dollar terms or gained 1.49% in US Dollar terms. So we outperformed the US Dollar indices and underperformed the Australian Dollar benchmarks.
Here is a report on the performance of investments by asset class:
The asset class returns are in currency neutral terms as the rate of return on gross assets and do not include investment expenses such as margin interest, and so the total differs from the Australian Dollar returns on net assets mentioned above. Performance was mixed, with rest of the world stocks having the worst rate of return and the most negative contribution to overall return followed by Australian small cap in terms of rate of return. Gold performed best, but private equity made the most positive contribution to total return (with gold in second place).
Things that worked well this month:
What really didn't work:
Here are the investment performance statistics for the last five years:
The top three lines give our performance in USD and AUD terms, while the last three lines give the same statistics for three indices. The middle block gives our performance relative to the indices.
These are now measured from the end of April 2020 and so are quite different to last month's data as they include one month of the post-pandemic rebound in the baseline value. Our alpha relative to the ASX200 fell to 3.15% with a beta of only 0.49. We still have much lower volatility, resulting in a Sharpe ratio of 1.12 vs. 0.93. We capture much less of the downside moves than the upside moves in the market. But as we optimize for Australian Dollar performance, our USD statistics are much worse. We do beat the HFRI hedge fund index in terms of return, but at the expense of much higher volatility. Our USD volatility is at least less than that of the MSCI index, but our return is almost three percentage points lower.
We moved away from our target allocation partly because we changed the allocation and partly because of our trades. Our actual allocation currently looks like this:
About 70% of our portfolio is in what are often considered to be alternative assets: real estate, art, hedge funds, private equity, gold, and futures. A lot of these are listed investments or investments with daily, monthly, or quarterly liquidity, so our portfolio is not as illiquid as you might think.We receive employer superannuation contributions every two weeks. We make an annual concessional contribution to Moominmama's superannuation to reach the annual cap on contributions. We contribute USD 10k each quarter to the Unpopular Ventures Rolling Fund and less frequently there will be capital calls from Aura Venture Fund II. I am now receiving TTR pension payments from both Unisuper and our SMSF and contributing more than the total of these back to our superannuation accounts. (around AUD 4k net contribution per month). I made the following additional moves this month:
US Dollar Indices
MSCI World Index (gross): -3.90%
S&P 500: -5.63%
HFRI Hedge Fund Index: -0.91% (forecast)
Australian Dollar Benchmarks
ASX 200: -3.12%
Target Portfolio: -2.04% (forecast - depends on HFRI result)
Australian 60/40 benchmark: -2.45%
We lost 3.20% in Australian Dollar terms or 2.72% in US Dollar terms. So we out-performed the international stock indices, roughly matched the ASX 200 but underperformed HFRI and the target and 60/40 benchmarks. The SMSF lost 3.94%. Better than the previous month but still bad.
Here is a report on the performance of investments by asset class:
The asset class returns are in currency neutral terms as the rate of return on gross assets and do not include investment expenses such as margin interest, and so the total differs from the Australian Dollar returns on net assets mentioned above. All asset classes lost money apart from gold, which gained 7.4% in AUD terms. Australian small cap was the worst loser, down 16.5%.
Things that worked well this month:
What really didn't work:
Here are the investment performance statistics for the last five years:
The top three lines give our performance in USD and AUD terms, while the last three lines give the same statistics for three indices. The middle block gives our performance relative to the indices.
Because these are measured from the pandemic crash bottom in March 2020 the numbers have changed significantly from last month. Both our performance and that of the benchmarks jumped strongly. But the ASX performance was particularly strong and we now underperform the index. We still have much lower volatility, resulting in a Sharpe ratio of 1.24 vs. 0.98. Our alpha relative to the ASX200 fell to 3.65% (from 4.48%) with a beta of only 0.49. We capture much less of the downside moves than the upside moves in the market. But as we optimize for Australian Dollar performance, our USD statistics are much worse. We do beat the HFRI hedge fund index in terms of return, but at the expense of much higher volatility. Our USD volatility is at least less than that of the MSCI index, but our return is three percentage points lower.
We moved away from our target allocation in large part due to the switch out of TIAA Real Estate but also due to losses at Pershing Square and other hedge funds. Our actual allocation currently looks like this:
About 70% of our portfolio is in what are often considered to be alternative assets: real estate, art, hedge funds, private equity, gold, and futures. A lot of these are listed investments or investments with daily, monthly, or quarterly liquidity, so our portfolio is not as illiquid as you might think.
We receive employer superannuation contributions every two weeks. We contribute USD 10k each quarter to the Unpopular Ventures Rolling Fund and less frequently there will be capital calls from Aura Venture Fund II. I am now receiving TTR pension payments from both Unisuper and our SMSF and contributing more than the total of these to the SMSF (around AUD 4k net contribution per month). I made quite a lot of additional moves this month:
February was the first down month after positive months. In dollar terms it was our third worst investment result after June 2022 and March 2020. The Australian Dollar fell from USD 0.6237 to USD 0.6208 meaning that USD investment returns are slightly worse than AUD investment returns. Stock indices and other benchmarks performed as follows (total returns including dividends):
US Dollar Indices
MSCI World Index (gross): -0.57%
S&P 500: -1.30%
HFRI Hedge Fund Index: 0.77% (forecast)
Australian Dollar Indices
ASX 200: -3.60%
Target Portfolio: -0.97% (forecast)
Australian 60/40 benchmark: -0.68%
We lost -4.11% in Australian Dollar terms or -4.40% in US Dollar terms. So we underperformed all benchmarks.
Here is a report on the performance of investments by asset class:
The asset class returns are in currency neutral terms as the rate of return on gross assets and do not include investment expenses such as margin interest, and so the total differs from the Australian Dollar returns on net assets mentioned above. Gold gained most while RoW stocks, futures (including bitcoin), and Australian Small Cap all had terrible performances.
Things that worked well this month:
What really didn't work:
Here are the investment performance statistics for the last five years:
The top three lines give our performance in USD and AUD terms, while the last three lines give the same statistics for three indices. The middle block gives our performance relative to the indices. Our rate of return remained higher than the ASX200 despite such a disastrous month and we have much lower volatility, resulting in a Sharpe ratio of 0.99 vs. 0.58. Our alpha relative to the ASX200 fell to 4.46% (from 4.94%) with a beta of only 0.47. We capture much less of the downside moves than the upside moves in the market. But as we optimize for Australian Dollar performance, our USD statistics are much worse. We do beat the HFRI hedge fund index in terms of return, but at the expense of much higher volatility. Our USD volatility is at least less than that of the MSCI index, but our return is more than three percentage points lower.
We moved towards our target allocation due to the poor performance of the overweighted asset classes, which previously had performed well. Our actual allocation currently looks like this:
We receive employer superannuation contributions every two weeks. We contribute USD 10k each quarter to the Unpopular Ventures Rolling Fund and less frequently there will be capital calls from Aura Venture Fund II. I am now receiving TTR pension payments from both Unisuper and our SMSF and contributing more than the total of these to the SMSF (around AUD 4k net contribution per month). I made the following additional moves this month:
In January, the Australian Dollar rose slightly from USD 0.6196 to USD 0.6237 meaning that USD investment returns are a little better than AUD investment returns. It was our second best month ever in absolute Australian Dollar terms (after November 2024). Stock indices and other benchmarks performed as follows (total returns including dividends):
US Dollar Indices
MSCI World Index (gross): 3.38%
S&P 500: 2.78%
HFRI Hedge Fund Index: 1.35% (forecast)
Australian Dollar Indices
ASX 200: 4.57%
Target Portfolio: 2.82% (forecast)
Australian 60/40 benchmark: 2.19%
We gained 4.59% in Australian Dollar terms or 5.12% in US Dollar terms. So we outperformed all benchmarks.
The SMSF returned 6.11%, compared to Unisuper at 2.16% and PSS(AP) at 1.72%.
Here is a report on the performance of investments by asset class:
The asset class returns are in currency neutral terms as the rate of return on gross assets and do not include investment expenses such as margin interest, and so the total differs from the Australian Dollar returns on net assets mentioned above. RoW stocks (mostly Defi Technologies) gained 8.4% and made the largest contribution to returns followed by gold. Several asset classes lost money, futures including bitcoin lost the most and made the most negative contribution to returns.
Things that worked well this month:
What really didn't work:
Here are the investment performance statistics for the last five years:
The top three lines give our performance in USD and AUD terms, while the last three lines give the same statistics for three indices. The middle block gives our performance relative to the indices. Our rate of return is now higher than the ASX200 and we have much lower volatility, resulting in a Sharpe ratio of 1.01 vs. 0.53. Our alpha relative to the ASX200 increased to 4.95% with a beta of only 0.46. We capture much less of the downside moves than the upside moves in the market. But as we optimize for Australian Dollar performance, our USD statistics are much worse. We do beat the HFRI hedge fund index in terms of return, but at the expense of much higher volatility. Our USD volatility is at least less than that of the MSCI index, but our return is more than two percentage points lower.
We moved further away from our target allocation this month as "futures" and rest of the world stocks allocations continued to grow. We are now most overweight rest of the world stocks followed by futures, which includes bitcoin. Our actual allocation currently looks like this:
We receive employer superannuation contributions every two weeks. We contribute USD 10k each quarter to the Unpopular Ventures Rolling Fund and less frequently there will be capital calls from Aura Venture Fund II. I am now receiving TTR pension payments from both Unisuper and our SMSF and contributing more than the total of these to the SMSF (around AUD 4k net contribution per month). I made the following additional moves this month:
This post breaks down the investment returns for 2024 at a very granular level. Other costs and benefits like interest and fees and exchange rate gains and losses are not included here. I also don't go down to the level of the very small individual investments inside the Masterworks and Unpopular Ventures boxes. All numbers are in Australian Dollars.
The grey shaded investments are ones we no longer hold (some were short term trades or investments). The numbers in yellow are total wins and losses and in green the total investments return. Last year's results are here. Some of the same investments were again major winners this year: 3i (III.L), gold, Unisuper, and PSSAP. Pershing Square Holdings (PSH.L) moved down the league table a bit this year. There are two newcomers in the top three: Defi Technologies (DEFI.NE) and Bitcoin. Gold also returned nearly three times the amount it did in 2023. These pushed 3i down from the top spot to fourth place.
Some of the same investments were again losers this year. On the other hand, the Cadence funds, Regal Partners, Aura VF2, and APSEC moved from losing last year to gaining more than $10k this year.
The top investments are mostly our biggest. 3i is relatively small though at 4% of the portfolio and our Pershing Square position is slightly bigger than our Defi Technologies position but did not perform as well this year.
I said that I would update the annual performance numbers after receiving all private investment returns for the year. The final number for 2024 in AUD terms was 23.30% up from 23.18%. Aura Venture Fund II made a nice gain in the final quarter but Aura Venture Fund I was marked down a little due to ongoing management costs probably.
The Australian reports on the best performing super funds for 2024. They focus on lifecycle, balanced, and sustainable options. I am sure there is some retail super option invested in international shares that did better than these. How did we do? I compute our SMSF returns pre-tax, while super funds report post-tax results. But anyway, our SMSF gained 34.1%! Estimated pre-tax numbers for Unisuper and PSS(AP) balanced options were 14.3% and 13.4%, respectively.
We are still waiting for the Aura venture funds to report, but I am guessing their values will be unchanged. So, now we can compute reasonably accurate annual accounts. All $ signs in this report indicate Australian Dollars. I'll do a separate report on individual investments. I do a report breaking down spending after the end of the financial year. I'll probably do another report on our SMSF performance then.
Overview
Investment returns were positive and net worth again increased. We did a lot better than in 2023. This was a direct result of my dis-satisfaction with the 2023 result and my determination to do better. We came in way ahead of the best case net worth projection I made in the 2023 report of $6.7 million with an end of year total of $7.4 million. We took a vacation in Maroochydore, Queensland in July and in December we travelled overseas for the first time since before the pandemic to China and Thailand. I did some short business trips to Sydney during the year as well. My 60th birthday was in December and I started a transition to retirement pension in that month.
Investment Return
In Australian Dollar terms we gained 23.1% for the year while in USD terms we gained 12.1%. The big gap is because the Australian Dollar fell. The MSCI gained 18.0% and the S&P 500 25.0% in USD terms while the ASX 200 gained 13.2% in AUD terms. The HFRI hedge fund index gained 9.6% in USD terms. Our target portfolio gained 19.2% in AUD terms. The new Vanguard 60/40 AUD benchmark only returned 12.4%. So, we under-performed the US Dollar stock indices but outperformed the other benchmarks.Investment Allocation
There were significant changes in asset allocation over the year:
Accounts
Here are our annual accounts in Australian Dollars:
Projections
Last year my best case scenario for 2024 was for an increase in net worth of $500k to $6.7 million. We actually reached $7.4 million. For this year, my base case scenario is simply a 10% increase in net worth to $8.2 million. The bear case is for a 10% decline to $6.7 million. In 2022, our net worth only fell by 0.7%, so this is very bearish. What about the best case scenario? This is going to seem crazy but I project double the percentage increase of 2024 for a net worth of $10 million. Told you it was crazy.Notes to the Accounts
Current account includes everything that is not related to retirement accounts and housing account income and spending. Then the other two are fairly self-explanatory. However, property taxes etc. are included in the current account. Since we notionally converted the mortgage to an investment loan, mortgage interest is counted in current investment costs. So, the only item in the housing account now is increases or decreases in the value of our house. This simplified the accounts a lot but I still keep a lot of cells in the spreadsheet that might again be used in the future.A year ago, we reconfigured Big Moomin's portfolio, which is managed by my brother, to provide better investment returns. This really paid off this year with a return of 34.4% in Australian Dollar terms. He now has AUD 73,230 in his account overtaking Little Moomin, who was ahead but now has only AUD 63,650. Little Moomin's pre-tax return is estimated at 15.0%, which at least beat the ASX200. But you have to take off the 30% investment bond tax to find out what he actually received, which is nearer 10%.* I am wondering if my balanced investment strategy is too conservative for Little Moomin.
* Actually, I take the reported 10.3% after-tax return and add back the 30% tax to get an estimated pre-tax return. The latter is definitely exaggerated because franking credits on some funds reduce the tax paid.
The numbers in this report may change a little once all data on private investments becomes available. I will write an annual report after all the data are in. In December, the Australian Dollar fell from USD 0.6515 to USD 0.6196. Stock indices and other benchmarks performed as follows (total returns including dividends):
US Dollar Indices
MSCI World Index (gross): -2.33%
S&P 500: -2.38%
HFRI Hedge Fund Index: -0.20% (forecast)
Australian Dollar Indices
ASX 200: -3.10%
Target Portfolio: 0.57% (forecast)
Australian 60/40 benchmark: -0.67%
We gained 1.50% in Australian Dollar terms or -3.48% in US Dollar terms. So we underperformed the USD benchmarks and outperformed the AUD benchmarks.
The SMSF returned 3.58%, compared to Unisuper at 0.43% and PSS(AP) at 0.05%.
Here is a report on the performance of investments by asset class:
The asset class returns are in currency neutral terms as the rate of return on gross assets and do not include investment expenses such as margin interest, and so the total differs from the Australian Dollar returns on net assets mentioned above. RoW stocks (mostly Defi Technologies) gained 8.4% and made the largest contribution to returns followed by gold. Several asset classes lost money, futures including bitcoin lost the most and made the most negative contribution to returns.
Things that worked well this month:
What really didn't work:
Here are the investment performance statistics for the last five years:
The top three lines give our performance in USD and AUD terms, while the last three lines give the same statistics for three indices. The middle block gives our performance relative to the indices. Our rate of return is now higher than the ASX200 and we have much lower volatility, resulting in a Sharpe ratio of 1.00 vs. 0.54. Our alpha relative to the ASX200 increased to 4.71% with a beta of only 0.46. We capture much less of the downside moves than the upside moves in the market. But as we optimize for Australian Dollar performance, our USD statistics are much worse. We do beat the HFRI hedge fund index in terms of return, but at the expense of much higher volatility. Our volatility in USD terms is now a little lower than the MSCI World Index, but our rate of return is much lower.
We maintained our distance from the target allocation this month. We are now most overweight rest of the world stocks. Our actual allocation currently looks like this:
We receive employer superannuation contributions every two weeks. We contribute USD 10k each quarter to the Unpopular Ventures Rolling Fund and less frequently there will be capital calls from Aura Venture Fund II. I am now receiving TTR pension payments from both Unisuper and our SMSF and contributing more than the total of these to the SMSF (around AUD 4k net contribution per month). I made the following additional moves this month: