Showing posts with label Planning. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Planning. Show all posts

Sunday, March 30, 2025

Investment Action Plan

This is the action plan resulting from the Investments Review:

Immediate Action

1. Stop re-investing distributions at Winton Global Alpha.

2. Stop re-investing distributions at Aspect Diversified Futures. 

3. Stop re-investing distributions at ASADPF.

4. Switch from TIAA Real Estate to CREF Social Choice in my US retirement account.

Longer Term

5. Monitor and sell: Bitcoin, URF, Defi Technologies, TGF

6. Monitor and reduce: WAR, CDO, WMA

7. Add? CD3, WCMQ, Domacom if the management company looks more stable. 

 

Friday, March 21, 2025

Another Perspective on the UK Pension

Here is another way of looking at the UK pension, which I have applied to contribute to. Our net worth not counting our house is about AUD 6 million. Using the 4% rule, we could withdraw AUD 240k per year. Currently, our spending is below that, which is why I have been thinking about retirement. The pension would add almost AUD 20k per year to that.* And the contributions would only be around 1/2% of the 6 million.

* This depends on how much tax we end up paying in retirement. Based on last year's tax return, if I stopped working I would earn AUD 56k p.a. So, my marginal tax rate would be 32%, which would apply to this additional income. That seems like a really high rate at such a nominally low income.

Thursday, March 20, 2025

UK Pension

 

This was totally not on my radar. When procrastinating on Wednesday, I saw an article in the Fin Review about how Australians who had worked 3 years+ in the UK could claim a UK pension by making extra contributions from overseas. The article explained that UK citizens in Australia could also do this. You need a minimum of 10 years of contributions to get the pension. If you have 35 years of contributions, you get the full pension of £11,500 per year currently. Unlike Australia, there is no means testing.

More than 35 years ago, I got letters from National Insurance in the UK, (I was living in Israel most of the time then) asking whether I wanted to make voluntary contributions to the UK pension. At the time, I was an undergrad student and the payment was a good chunk of money for me. I discussed it with my father. He argued that I could make more payments later and anyway who knew if there would be a state pension when I was ready to retire. So, I didn't make any contributions. So, I knew about voluntary contributions, but didn't realize I could be making them now. Most importantly, I didn't realize what a fantastic investment this is!

The main point in the AFR article is that up to 19 April this year it is possible to make contributions for the 12 years between 2006 and 2018. After this date, it will only be possible to contribute for the previous six years.

So, Wednesday evening I set up a digital ID on Government Gateway - the UK's equivalent of Australia's MyGov. It turned out that I could use my Australian passport to identify myself. My UK passport expired in 2024... This allowed me to check my record of contributions. Then, this afternoon, I submitted my application to make voluntary contributions. They will process the application and then send me payment details. Mainly, I had to enter information about my last UK employer and the employers I have had since I left the UK. Luckily, there are only three of these and I have a good idea of the dates I started and finished at each one.

Who knows whether they will process the application by the deadline for adding the extra 12 years of contributions, but at least I tried.

It turns out that I have 7 full years of contributions. They even counted years when I was over 16 and in high school! So, if I could add the 12 extra years, the most recent 6 years, and the 7 years till I am 67, I will have a total of 32 years, which will give me 91% of the full pension! Even without the extra 12 years I would have 57% of the full pension.

OK, so why is this such a fantastic investment? Each additional year of contributions buys £11,500/35 per year in extra pension or £329. The most recent years cost only around £900 in contributions! So, you are buying an annuity that starts at age 67 paying an annual dividend of 37%! All your contributions will be paid back by the time of your 70th birthday, and the payments after that are pure profit! If I live to the same age as both my parents did then the internal rate of return would be a real (i.e. assuming zero inflation) 17%. That's not far behind our track record with 3i (III.L).

This is a no-brainer investment.  

P.S. 21 March 2025

My brother says that if they get back to you after the deadline they will still let you pay as long as you lodged before the deadline. Good news if true.

Sunday, March 02, 2025

Where We Are at With the VSS

The latest episode. I met the director on Thursday. They didn't try to discourage me from doing it (I didn't expect they would). They even noted that they have at least a couple of other people who teach and research in my exact field. We are the top place for this in Australia. We also discussed other options included a transition to retirement plan, where you work part-time till a set retirement date at a maximum 3 years in the future. The director saw this plan as tied to a specific "project", which isn't something in the plan as described by the university. The key aspect in the university description is that the university keeps paying employer contributions to Unisuper at the full time rate even though the worker is now working part time. This is critical for people on the defined benefit scheme who otherwise lose a lot of money if they switch to part-time work.

The other option we discussed is simply working part-time. The director wouldn't commit to a specific reduction in salary that I need to take in order to reduce my teaching load. Instead, they said I should talk to my department head (HoD).* But they did say that all expectations needed to be adjusted and not just the teaching expectation. What does this mean? Academic staff are allocated a nominal percentage workload. In my case it is 40% teaching, 40% research, and 20% service. So, the director is saying that each of those percentages need to go down, not just the teaching one. This is totally expected. Having been a HoD myself, I knew that they couldn't make this decision by themselves. But what they can do is look at their teaching plans and see how it would work.

So, on Friday I talked to the HoD on the phone, who was very positive about the part-time plan and said there are two people who would be interested in teaching one of my courses. The HoD will now go back to the director to negotiate the percentage cut in FTE. The HoD is going to argue for a 30% cut. I think the director wants 50% but wouldn't say so. Maybe I'll end up at a 40% cut?

On Tuesday, there is an information session on the VSS, which I'll attend.

I have discussed this a lot with Moominmama. At one extreme we talked about taking the VSS and moving somewhere cheaper and doing homeschooling. In Australia, the lower the cost of living the worse the quality of public schools and there might not be a suitable private option.** At the other extreme we are looking at doing the part-time option.

I've debugged my simulations more and the VSS is equivalent financially to working part time to the end of 2028. After that, one year of part-time work adds 1.1% to net worth. Full time work adds 0.8% per year on top of the part-time option. The differential is because of progressive taxation.

So, why not just take the VSS? The main reason comes down to going cold turkey from an AUD 200k plus salary to depending entirely on investment returns.*** This month has been our worst in investment returns since June 2022. I have been very stressed out by the combination of that and the need to make this career decision. Moominmama thinks I will be very stressed out and maybe make bad decisions if I take the VSS. So, the lowest stress path is to ease into retirement gradually. In theory, the VSS gives you a pile of cash, so that you don't need to depend on investment returns for more than a year. But the temptation is to chase yield on that too...

* The director heads a "school" that comprises 4 academic departments. 

** In particular, coastal areas outside the big cities are notoriously areas of low socio-economic status and high unemployment. Here are the socio-economic profiles of our nearest public high school in Canberra:


and Bateman's Bay High School, on the coast near Canberra:

These numbers are relative to Australia as a whole. The main private school tbere only has 28% of its students from the top quartile and its performance is similar to the average school in Australia. At our children's school 80% of students are from the top-quartile! I think that is likely too far in the opposite direction 😀
 

*** Around AUD 245k pre-tax including employer superannuation contributions.

 

Wednesday, February 26, 2025

VSS Update

I now have a meeting lined up with my boss and discussed the whole thing with a colleague who took a similar package in 2020. He said that there weren't anything to know really that isn't on the website and the main thing are the psychological issues involved in retirement in general but also the sudden and fast pace of retiring under a scheme like this. I have been debugging and improving my simulation. Now there is no financial difference between taking the package and working half time from the middle of this year till the end of 2027. After that, each additional year of half-time work adds 1% to net worth!

The university has an existing "transition to retirement scheme" as well. Under this you commit to retire at a date not more than 3 years out and then step down your hours while the university pays your superannuation contributions at the full time rate. That wouldn't be much different to taking the package. Maybe 0.5% extra net worth and a lot of work....

The website mentions that there might also be an early retirement scheme but that the ATO needs to approve of it still. So, I sent an email to HR asking what that would be like.

 

Tuesday, February 25, 2025

VSS

VSS stands for "Voluntary Separation Scheme". The details were announced this afternoon. There are three weeks to apply for it from today. They are offering 3 weeks pay per year of service as a severance payment. That means I'd get about 3/4 a year's pay in a tax advantaged way. So maybe a year's after tax pay. I estimate now that net worth in 2029 would be only 5% lower than it would otherwise be. It's beginning to look like a no-brainer. Next step would be meeting with my director.

P.S. 8:50pm

I sent the email to my director about discussing the VSS and other options. Apparently, there is also a retirement scheme they are progressing with the ATO and the FAQ discusses working part time etc. I ran the numbers on the payout calculator they provided. Including annual leave and long-service leave, my estimated pay out is AUD 269k. There would be an estimated AUD 40k of tax on that.

Friday, February 21, 2025

1997

I feel that 1997 might be a good analogy to 2025. After an aborted recession in 1994 (2022) the stock market went up strongly in both 1995 (2023) and 1996 (2024). But when I left the US in 1996 for Australia the mood was that the economy was struggling and maybe another recession was coming. There was also a feeling that the stockmarket was overvalued. Alan Greenspan first mentioned "irrational exuberance" in December 1996. But the stockmarket, or at least tech stocks, went up for three more years to crazy heights in 1999 (2027) before the tech wreck. Then the boom was mainly internet related stocks, now AI and maybe quantum computing. Oscar Carboni, who is very slightly older than me, often says: "This boom is just getting started." 

So, does that mean we should go all-in on tech stocks? There are no guarantees, and so I always diversify. My largest exposures to tech are through my venture capital exposures. If I am right, venture capital should do well for a while and maybe we can get some exits. And then I have WCM Global (WCMQ.AX), Generation Global, and Hearts and Minds (HM1.AX). Pershing Square Holdings (PSH.L) has investments in Google and Uber. Unisuper has some exposure through the Sustainable Balanced Option I am mainly invested in. But overall it would only add up to around 15% of net worth (and less of gross assets). On the other hand I have 18% of net worth in crypto-related assets that tend to move with tech stocks. Given that, perhaps my exposure is big enough?

Thursday, February 20, 2025

Voluntary Redundancy

So my employer announced a couple of days ago in the weekly newsletter that there will be a voluntary redundancy scheme. The details won't be announced until next week. Up till now they said that redundancies would be based entirely on determining work needs and budgets going forward and there would be no voluntary redundancies. Moominmama might also be made redundant mid-year, as her employer is also cutting and she is under-employed in her organization currently.

So, I did a simulation of what would happen if we both quit mid-year,* I got an AUD 75k payout (1 week's pay per year of service + 25k for long service leave etc.) and retired putting my transfer balance cap into pension mode. At the end of 2025 there is no real difference, as my pay is largely replaced by the payout. At the end of 2029 our net worth is 7% lower than it would otherwise be if I followed my original plan to work half time from next year until then.**

At first, when I told Moominmama this result she said: "Why are we working anyway then?" When I mentioned that I needed to stress test the result for different rates of return etc. she began to say it was too scary that we wouldn't have a salary coming in and I shouldn't take voluntary redundancy. But with that attitude I wouldn't retire till our youngest child completes grade school in 2037 when I will be 73!

In any case, I might yet be made compulsorily redundant. Our school (group of departments) has been given a salary budget for this year that is around 10% lower than the salaries we are paying... 

* To get a rough estimate you don't need a simulation. Just work out the after tax salary and superannuation you are giving up by retiring now net of the redundancy payment and divide it by current net worth. That tells you how much more % you would have in net worth at the end of the period of foregone salary.

** Net worth in 2029 would still be AUD 1 million higher in real terms than at the end of 2025 despite being retired. This is because our current spending is only 2.9% of our net worth (not including housing equity), which is well below the classic 4% rule.

P.S. 21 February 2025

Heard today that the window for applying for voluntary redundancy will only be three weeks from 25 February when the details will be released.

Saturday, January 18, 2025

Went Over the Transfer Balance Cap

Intramonth, I've blasted through the transfer balance cap. This is the limit of AUD 1.9 million that you can transfer from an Australian superannuation account into a tax free pension when you retire or reach 65 years old. I'm now nearer AUD 2 million. The important thing is that when you exceed this limit you can no longer make "non-concessional" (post-tax) contributions to superannuation. However, I can continue to make recontributions to superannuation from my transition to retirement pension until the end of June this year. This is because this rule depends on your balance at the beginning of the current financial year, which in Australia starts at the beginning of July. But if I do stay over the AUD 1.9 million level on 30 June this year, I won't be able to make non-concessional contributions to my account next financial year. Instead, I will make them to Moominmama's account.

P.S. 20 January

The Australian is reporting today that the transfer balance cap is likely to be raised to AUD 2 million next July.

Wednesday, November 20, 2024

Regal Funds Share Purchase Plan

Regal Investment Fund (RF1.AX) is doing a share placement and a share purchase plan (SPP). Under the SPP you can buy up to AUD 30k of shares at the recent NAV of AUD 3.41. They have made an official 20% average rate of return since inception. My internal rate of return is higher than this. So, I think I should take up all of this, but don't have anything I want to sell in the SMSF's brokerage accounts. I could either make an additional AUD 30k non-concessional superannuation contribution to my account or withdraw something from one of the SMSF futures investments. It's probably the last chance to make non-concessional contributions to my account, as I could hit the balance transfer cap of AUD 1.9 million by 30 June 2025. Also, the futures investments have been weak recently, so I think they might see a return to the mean in terms of performance and selling now might not be a good move.

Wednesday, October 23, 2024

Transition to Retirement

I am thinking of setting up a transition to retirement pension (TTR pension). This allows you to receive regular payouts from your superannuation once you reach the age of 60 even though you are still working. I will be 60 years old in about 6 weeks time! There are lots of strategies this can be used. In my case, I am thinking to continue working full time at least for the next year and to recontribute all the payout to superannuation as non-concessional contributions (post-tax contributions). This has two advantages: 

  1. It will convert money that was contributed as concessional contributions (at the 15% or 30% contributions tax rate) and earned as investment returns into non-concessional contributions. If my children inherit some of my superannuation when they are past the age of 18 they then won't need to pay tax on this part of the payout. The "death tax" is only on concessional contributions and fund earnings.
  2. Once I hit the transfer balance cap, of currently $1.9 million, I can contribute the money to my wife's superannuation instead. I am currently at $1.7 million and she is at $800k. So, there is still a lot of unused capacity there. 

When you retire or reach age 65 you can transfer money up to the transfer balance cap into a zero taxed pension account. Money over the limit stays in an accumulation account where earnings are taxed at 15% (10% for long term CGT). The TTR pension does not affect the calculation of the transfer balance cap unless you are still holding it at age 65 when it becomes a regular tax free pension account.

My Unisuper account is close to 100% concessional contributions and earnings. So, I would start with that and transfer $600k to a pension account and pay out 10% of it each year, which is the maximum withdrawal rate. You have to leave some money in the accumulation account to receive new contributions... But actually 60% of my SuperGuardian account is also concessional contributions and earnings, and so it would make sense to transfer $400k from that into a TTR pension account too. So I would be withdrawing $100k per year and recontributing. The reason I wouldn't withdraw the maximum annual non-concessional contribution level of $110k is because my employer contributes more than the allowed cap on concessional contributions each year and the excess becomes non-concessional contributions.*

The downside to recontributing to my wife's superannuation is that I could make those contributions from non-superannuation money resulting in getting even more money into super. After all, even if you have more than $1.9 million in super, the amount above the limit is concessionally taxed compared to non-super investments.** But right now I am not making those contributions. Instead, I have been building up a pile of cash offsetting our mortgage. This is partly to reduce our interest bill but also part of a plan to buy a more expensive house in the future. So, as long as I was planning on saving to buy a house, I wouldn't make non-concessional contributions to her account.

Anyway, I sent an email to Unisuper yesterday expressing my interest in TTR pensions and asking what the next step is. 

Originally, I planned on switching to half time work when I reached 60 years old, but I seem to have fallen victim to the one more year syndrome. Seems silly to sacrifice $120k in pre-tax salary and superannuation just to have a bit easier time in the teaching half of my year. Also, my university is enacting a major cost-cutting exercise that likely will see more than 500 jobs cut in total. Academic jobs will not be cut till next year. They are not putting in a voluntary redundancy scheme. But I figure that if I am made redundant then I will get a bigger payout if I am still working full time. I could be wrong about that.

* That's why my Unisuper account isn't 100% concessional contributions and earnings.

** The government plans to tax superannuation in excess of a $3 million threshold at higher rates that include unrealised capital gains. But I think the senate will not pass that legislation and we are still a long way from the $3 million level.

Saturday, July 27, 2024

June 2024 Report

I was dissatisfied with my investment return of only 5.69% last year and so decided to eliminate some of my boring funds and take on more risk. Well, this month we got a lot of intra-month volatility, so at least it wasn't boring!

In June, the Australian Dollar rose from USD 0.6650 to USD 0.6671 so US Dollar returns are slightly better than Australian Dollar returns this month. Stock indices and other benchmarks performed as follows (total returns including dividends):

US Dollar Indices

MSCI World Index (gross): 2.26%

S&P 500: 3.59%

HFRI Hedge Fund Index: -0.20%

Australian Dollar Indices

ASX 200: 1.08%

Target Portfolio: 1.59%

Australian 60/40 benchmark: 1.04%.

We lost -0.51% in Australian Dollar terms or -0.19% in US Dollar terms. So, we underperformed all benchmarks.

Here is a report on the performance of investments by asset class:

The asset class returns are in currency neutral returns as the rate of return on gross assets and so the total differs from  the Australian Dollar returns on net assets mentioned above. Returns varied radically across asset classes. Futures (including bitcoin) lost the most and detracted the most from total return. RoW Stocks gained the most (mostly due to Defi Technologies) and contributed the most to total return.

Things that worked well this month:

  • Defi Technologies (DEFI.NE) was the top performer, gaining AUD 29k. The next three best were 3i (III.L, 11k), Pershing Square Holdings (PSH.L, 11k), and Unisuper (10k).

What really didn't work:

  • Bitcoin lost AUD 45k and is one of the main reasons we underperformed this month. Tribeca Global Resources (TGF.AX) lost 13k.

Here are the investment performance statistics for the last five years:

The top three lines give our performance in USD and AUD terms, while the last three lines give results for three indices. Compared to the ASX200 we have a slightly lower average return but also lower volatility, resulting in a higher Sharpe ratio of 0.87 vs. 0.61. But as we optimize for Australian Dollar performance, our USD statistics are much worse and worse than either the MSCI world index or the HFRI hedge fund index. We do beat the HFRI in terms of return, but at the expense of much higher volatility. We have a positive alpha relative to the ASX200 of 3.45% with a beta of only 0.45.

We moved away a bit from our target allocation. We are most underweight private equity and futures and large cap stocks and overweight RoW stocks and hedge funds. Our actual allocation currently looks like this:

About 70% of our portfolio is in what are often considered to be alternative assets: real estate, art, hedge funds, private equity, gold, and futures. A lot of these are listed investments or investments with daily, monthly, or quarterly liquidity, so our portfolio is not as illiquid as you might think.

We receive employer contributions to superannuation every two weeks. We are now contributing USD 10k each quarter to Unpopular Ventures Rolling Fund and less frequently there will be capital calls from Aura Venture Fund II. It was another busy month. We made the following additional moves this month:

  • I sold 500 shares of 3i (III.L), which brought our invested capital close to zero.
  • I sold 50k shares of Cadence Capital (CDM.AX). Another example of a boring fund, though in this case it is boring in practice, not theory. I added 18k shares of Cadence Opportunities (CDO.AX) instead, though recently it hasn't performed much differently to CDM.
  • I sold 25k shares of Tribeca Global Resources (TGF.AX) and bought the same amount in a different account realising a capital loss. This has been a very underperforming fund since inception, with one good year, but I haven't given up yet.
  • I sold 50k shares of the US Residential Property Fund, URF.AX.
  • I sold 2k shares of WCMQ.AX.
  • I sold 5k shares of Hearts and Minds (HM1.AX).
  • I sold 7k shares of Platinum Capital (PMC.AX).
  • I sold AUD 7.5k of the Longwave Developing Companies Fund. This was once CFS and then FS. The manager has changed now to Longwave. I plan to run down the holding in my wife's account to fund capital calls for venture capital funds and her retirement contribution for next year.
  • I bought 1,000 shares of the gold ETF PMGOLD.AX.
  • I bought 15k shares of Defi Technologies (DEFI.NE).
  • I bought 7k shares of Regal Partners (RPL.AX). This hasn't turned out to be a good move so far.
  • There were also some largely unsuccessful futures trades.




Sunday, June 23, 2024

Revisiting Inflation vs. Investment Returns

In January, I posted about how much of investment returns were being taken up to cover the effects of inflation. I fitted a quadratic curve to monthly investment income to smooth it out and compared that to the current inflation rate multiplied by our net worth. It didn't look good. How are things looking now that inflation has come down a bit?

On this graph, I have also added fitted saving and an alternative calculation of expected investment returns. To calculate this one, I fitted a linear trend to the monthly percentage rate of return and multiplied that by net worth. It doesn't include any gain in the value of our house, and turns out to be relatively more conservative. On the other hand, the "boiling point" where investment returns exceeded saving was still around 2012.

The picture has improved in the last few months as inflation has declined. Using the more conservative measure of projected investment income we have a surplus above inflation of around AUD 15k per month, which is in the ballpark of our current spending not counting taxes. If inflation stayed low, retirement should be feasible. But there is still huge uncertainty around future inflation, investment returns, and spending, which continues to make me cautious.


Saturday, May 25, 2024

Chosing a Fixed vs. Variable Interest Rate Again

I fixed the rate of my CommSec margin loan over the last year. I now have a choice for next year. The variable rate is 9.65% while the fixed rate is 7.79%. For the variable rate to pay off, the Reserve Bank would have to cut its interest rate by more than 1.86% on average over the course of the next year. So, for example, if they don't start cutting interest rates till the middle of the year they would need to cut by 3.75% in total. I can't see that happening and so it makes sense to choose the fixed rate again.

Sunday, March 03, 2024

Life Insurance and Cash Buffers


This post follows up on EnoughWealth's comments on my previous post on Ramit's Conscious Spending Plan. In that post, I commented that I should have more cash in our offset account, in case I die or something, as otherwise bills might start to bounce (like the bill for tuition for the term for two children... or an AUD 25k capital call from Aura), especially once my salary was stopped. Even though I now have my salary coming into our offset account I am finding I have to shuffle money around quite frequently to able to pay the bills. This is because investments like in Unpopular Ventures are also coming out of this account. We are earning the mortgage rate implicitly on money in the offset account. But as that is less than our top margin rate that we are paying I have been reluctant to just put a lump of tens of thousands in the offset account.

EnoughWealth said that that is the purpose of life insurance. Yes, we both have life insurance attached to our employer superannuation. But getting life insurance paid out could take weeks. Only in 50% of cases is it within 2 weeks. My death cover is AUD 168k. This number seems to be falling as I get older.

So, probably I should hold more cash in our offset account despite the interest cost. I also need to write an "operating manual" and get Moominmama who has no interest in finances to read it... 

I recently learned that I have an above average probability of getting a heart attack for my age (59). I am taking statins now to try to reduce that rate, but who knows how effective that will be.

 

Tuesday, January 30, 2024

Projected Retirement Income

If we retired today, how much would our retirement income be? To answer the question, I updated an analysis I did a few years ago and came up with this graph:

Passive income is what our combined tax returns would be in each year if we had not received a salary nor made any work related deductions. I also added back charitable deductions and personal concessional superannuation contributions to our SMSF as these aren't costs in the same way that margin interest is, for example. So, it is not 100% passive as it includes realised capital gains and losses. I also plot how much a 4% withdrawal from our superannuation accounts and US retirement fund would amount to under the assumption that we apply the 4% rule to these accounts. My thinking is that unrealised gains on the non-retirement funds would be sufficient to maintain purchasing power. Taxes are likely to be very low, so I just ignore them.

Last tax year our income would have been AUD 154k. Our spending not including mortgage interest and life insurance was AUD 152k. So, this is one reason why I don't feel comfortable retiring as we are spending very close to our sustainable income and spending is likely to continue to rise. On the other hand, if we apply the 4% rule to our entire portfolio at 30 June 2022, it would yield AUD 175k. But maybe the 4% rule is not conservative enough. My recent analysis of how much of our returns is needed to compensate for inflation, was much more pessimistic than this.

If we were forced to stop working we could easily slash spending by taking the children out of private school, which accounts for an expected 30% of our budget.


Sunday, January 21, 2024

How Much Investment Income Do We Need to Compensate for Inflation?

 


This chart compares the fitted investment income curve from my previous post about the "boiling point" with the monthly loss of value of our portfolio (including our house) due to inflation. I just took the monthly percentage change in Australia's consumer price index and multiplied by the value of our portfolio that month. The gap between the blue and orange curves is a naive estimate of how much can be spent each month in retirement mode.

Currently, projected investment income is only just enough to cover the loss from inflation. Smoothing inflation over twelve months tells a similar story:

Here I divide the CPI by its value twelve months earlier, take the twelfth root and subtract one before multiplying by the value of the portfolio. This shows that inflation is coming down a little but is still high. We really need to boost our rate of return relative to inflation in order to retire and maintain the real value of the portfolio. It is hard to think about retiring until in inflation is more under control.

Investment income accounts for superannuation taxes, but assumes that the only tax on investments outside superannuation is exactly equal to the franking credits paid.* In retirement, the superannuation tax would go away, but there would be capital gains and other taxes on investments outside superannuation. So, probably it is in the ballpark.

* This is because the series is computed as the change in net worth minus saving and inheritances. Saving is computed after tax including superannuation contribution taxes and income tax.


Friday, June 09, 2023

Fixed My Margin Loan Interest Rate

I fixed my margin loan interest rate for the next year at 7.69% instead of a variable rate 9.15%. I am paying the interest in arrears. At the moment I can't see the RBA really cutting interest rates by an average of 1.5% over the next year. It's the first time I have done this. One reason for that is that my balance is relatively low at the moment and I expect it will increase, so I won't have the problem of early termination. I am withdrawing AUD 15k every quarter to invest in the Unpopular Ventures Rolling Fund.

Wednesday, September 21, 2022

Not Renewing Wholesale Investor Status

I got a message from Interactive Brokers that I needed to renew my wholesale investor status as two years had passed since I submitted an accountant's certificate. They currently only allow retail investors to borrow a maximum of AUD 50k in margin loans. The accountant agreed to do it again and I sent her all the relevant material to prove my net worth was more than AUD 2.5 million that took me 2-3 hours to put together. I came up with a number of AUD 3.7 million – the test is done on an individual not family basis – and so thought it would be easy. But now she has come back and said she can't include any superannuation in the number! So she estimates my net worth for the purpose of the test is AUD 2.4 million. She suggested I get a professional valuation of my house to prove the higher number I suggested for it (AUD 1.25 million).

It doesn't make any sense to me that an SMSF would be excluded but home equity included.

Anyway, I looked carefully at my Interactive Brokers account. Currently, I could borrow a maximum of AUD 96k. The saving in interest per year for the amount above 50k compared to CommSec is about AUD 5k. But I am unlikely to borrow that much, as I don't want to get a margin call if things go pear-shaped. So, I've decided not to do the property valuation, because it might come in lower and I still wouldn't qualify. I will wait till when I actually want to borrow more or make a new venture capital investment in Australia and I am closer to qualifying. 

Of course, it is much easier to qualify as an accredited investor under US rules. Moominmama qualified in order to participate in AngelList even though her net worth including super is definitely under AUD 2.5 million.

Monday, August 29, 2022

Transfer to HSBC Australia Didn't Work

I transferred USD 1,000 from Interactive Brokers to the HSBC Everyday Global Account. I was surprised to find that they converted it to Australian Dollars. I am confused about whether I did something wrong or not. I posted a question about it in the mobile chat and the app said it was still learning and didn't understand and a consultant would get back to me.

P.S. 30Aug22

So, the consultant explained that first you have to add the US Dollar "product" to your account before you can transfer US Dollars to your account. I now applied and was approved.

Even if I get this working properly this is a slow method of converting currency. First I need to transfer money to IB, then wait before I am allowed to withdraw it again, then wait while the transfer to HSBC happens, then do another transfer. Of course, we could simply have lots of US Dollars lying around at HSBC just in case, but there is an interest cost to doing that... So all this might be too much hassle.

For September's investment in Unpopular Ventures, I'm planning to sell some shares at IB and then transfer US Dollars to HSBC and see how it goes.

P.P.S. 30Aug22 

So now I know when you get the 2% cashback on debit card purchases. You need to deposit at least $2,000 a month into the account. That is a tremendous rate of return compared to passing that spending money through our offset account - about 5 times the rate of return. So, I am going to get Moominmama's salary deposited to this account in future. I'm not sure about opening one myself as I have a lot lower rate of spending on a debit/credit card.