Showing posts with label Investments. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Investments. Show all posts

Monday, August 10, 2026

Charter Hall Direct Life Sciences Fund

I got an email today about this new fund. It is an investment in a building hosting a Sonic Health Care lab.

At first glance, it sounds attractive. They are advertising a 13% projected rate of return. Before performance fees. Performance fees would only knock 0.5% off that, so still sounds attractive. But actually, the 13% target is based on the capitalization rate declining from 5.25% to 4.75%. 5.25% is already a lot below current office cap rates. If that change in cap rate doesn't happen, they expect a 9.4% IRR. Of course, if the cap rate rises, the return will be less than 9.4%. They project that the distribution rate will be 7.5% per year. Only half of that will come from net income. The rest will come from increasing the loan against the property as rent rises (it rises at CPI with a cap of 3.5% p.a.) and distributing some of the unrealised capital gains in that way. They do seem to have a very low interest rate on the mortgage. Don't know how. This is tax deferred income, but means most of the expected returns on this investment are capital gains, which will be subject to a 30% minimum tax rate going forward. The fund is locked up for 5 years, after which, if they decide to stay invested, some liquidity might be available. The tenant has a 20 year lease.

After all these considerations, this looks a lot less attractive to me. To lock money up I need to think there might be an above market gain. Like 13%. I am pretty doubtful of that outcome here. The minimum investment is $100k. So, I will probably pass on this one. 

Monday, August 03, 2026

Got Out of Berkshire Hathaway Again!

I bought 200 shares of Berkshire Hathaway B just after Warren Buffett announced that he would retire as CEO. This was around the time of the "Tariff Tantrum". My thesis was that the stock would rise as Greg Abel deployed the huge cash pile. He has made some moves, but the stock has gone sideways. In the meantime, I sold half the position and today the rest of it. I have better ideas for the money, namely ZIM. At least I think it is a better idea.

I guess I am just not patient enough to be a Berkshire shareholder. I have been in an out of the stock many times. Overall, my IRR is 7.4% and AUD 21k in profit, though this recent period lost AUD 4k.

Wednesday, July 29, 2026

Switching from WAM Capital to WAM Active


I first invested in WAM Capital (WAM.AX) in April 2025 during the "Tariff Tantrum". This has mainly been an investment in our SMSF. But the portfolio performance over the last year has been disappointing, with a 10.5% portfolio loss before fees etc. This vastly underperformed the market. All the WAM small cap funds apart from WAM Active (WAA.AX), had a similar performance. 

WAM Active was up 75% and up an average of 26% in each of the previous two years. It is managed mainly by Shaun Weick, while the overall small cap strategy is overseen by Oscar Oberg. The fund takes a more active trading stance. It had a 10x portfolio turnover in FY 26 and they participated in 87 capital raises! Three years ago, its strategy was separated from the other small cap funds.

So,  I have sold my WAM position of 110k shares and bought 150k shares of WAM Active. Overall, we made AUD 19k on WAM Capital with an IRR of 9.9%. So, we still made money despite the poor performance of the underlying portfolio. But I think we can do better.

Thursday, July 16, 2026

Another 1/4 Million Shares

I bought another 1/4 million shares and am now up to 1.75 million shares of URF. I forgot to mention that if you wait to get distributions from the fund, you probably won't pay any tax. If you sell before, you'll have to pay capital gains tax. There shouldn't be any tax because this fund has a disastrous history and so all distributions are returns of capital. My initial investment was at 80 cents per share, which was already a lot below the IPO price, and we haven't received 65 cents of distributions since then 😀.  I'm up to 4% of net worth in this fund, maybe I should stop accumulating.

Wednesday, July 15, 2026

Increased URF Position to 1.5 million shares

I bought another 500k shares of the US residential property fund, URF.AX. They have sold almost all the portfolio and most of the remaining stock is under contract or attorney review. The NAV is 18.5 cents a share and today's price is 16 cents. The Australian Dollar would need to rise to 80 US cents for the profit to be wiped out. I doubt that will happen by the end of the year.

My first purchase of URF shares was just 10,000 shares in August 2019.


My internal rate of return is now 9.5%. In the best case scenario, this will rise to 13.3% by December and the position will gain AUD 37.5k in value.

Monday, July 13, 2026

Bitcoin and URF

After paying off most of my margin loan, I decided to redraw about half to buy 1/2 million shares in URF (US residential property fund listed on ASX). I already held that number in the SMSF, so I am doubling the position. The managers are in the final stages of selling down the portfolio, but the share price is still below the NAV, which already takes sales costs into account. The main thing that can go wrong is that the Australian Dollar could rise sharply, reducing the NAV in AUD terms, but I think this is a quite safe bet that should beat the margin interest I need to pay for the net 6 months or so till they wrap up.

I also bought 30% of a bitcoin in shares of the IBTC ETF listed on the ASX. Didi Taihuttu is saying to dollar cost average in and so that's what I am doing. 

Tuesday, July 07, 2026

Large Distribution from Macquarie Winton Global Alpha

I didn't realise, but the Winton Global Alpha Fund (managed futures) rose 22% this Australian Financial Year. And then on 30 June they paid out most of the gain as a distribution. Almost AUD 36k for us! On the spot, I decided to reinvest AUD 20k. The fund has been doing well, so, we don't really want to greatly reduce our position. On the other hand, it might make sense to take some chips off the table, and eventually we need cash. But this is enough to pay my current SMSF pension for almost 11 months... So, keeping a 7% yield and reinvesting the rest sounded about right. This fund is in the SMSF because of its propensity for big non-tax advantaged payouts like this. 

Friday, July 03, 2026

Starting the Big Restructure

I have started restructuring our portfolio in response to the new tax laws. The first step is to make contributions to our SMSF's Interactive Brokers account. I plan to use up all the available contributions. The step after that will be to sell shares in the PMGOLD gold ETF at CommSec and then transfer some of that money back to our offset account to replace the contributions to the SMSF. We'll then buy a futures contract in the SMSF, reduce our margin loan at CommSec, which has a very high interest rate, and also make some new investments. This first stage will only sell less than half of our gold. 

Monday, June 15, 2026

More Gold Exposure

I brought my gold exposure back up to 10% of gross assets. But instead of investing in the PMGOLD ETF I invested in the L1 Gold Fund. This is a hedge fund invested mostly in gold mining stocks. I am lumping this in with gold metal as the price of gold is the main driver of gold mining stocks. If the government's capital gains tax changes are implemented, it will be better to have a franked dividend paying fund instead of a gold metal ETF in my personal name.

I also sold some Regal Investment Fund (RF1.AX) and bought some more Pengana Private Equity (PE1.AX). Despite the success of the SpaceX IPO, which is its largest holding, it dropped sharply today! One possible reason is that Pengana is launching a new AI fund, Maybe some people are selling this to buy that?

Saturday, June 06, 2026

Things I Don't Invest In

For every investment I do make, there are a lot that I look at and decide against. A recent example that I blogged about is the Pabrai Funds

I'm sent more and more invitations to invest in start-ups. One I saw today was Venice AI. Some complicated story about a privacy oriented LLM (but uses resources from other LLMs maybe?) plus two different crypto tokens. I couldn't understand the pitch and deleted it. In general, I like to see some attention to the "economics" - what is the route to profitability. If it is not discussed at all, I tend to pass on the opportunity.

And then there are more mature opportunities including two upcoming IPOs. One is the IPO of SpaceX. CommSec has provided an Australian version of the prospectus. I already have exposure via Pengana Private Equity (PE1.AX) and if I wanted more I could buy more shares in that fund, which are trading at a discount to what the NAV would be with the SpaceX IPO price. SpaceX is their largest holding by far. S&P have decided not to change their index rules to allow unprofitable and new companies to join their indices. NASDAQ on the other hand will be including it in the NASDAQ 100 index very quickly. I am sceptical of the idea that there will be a pop in price at the IPO beyond the already crazy price–the price is near 100 times 2025 sales. With USD 75 billion of shares being issued in the IPO, most people who want them will probably get them? Most IPOs do not perform well in the short term if you buy at the IPO price.

The other IPO I looked at was a new fund from Pengana focusing on 20 private AI related companies–AIX. Bytedance and Handshake are the two seed assets. They will also be investing in "picks and shovels" and applications companies not just LLM providers. But most closed end funds definitely don't trade well following their IPO. My preference is to be invested in related resources (e.g. via Tribeca Global Resources, TGF.AX) and in earlier stage firms that have routes to profitability (see above).

Thursday, June 04, 2026

Treasury Wines Investor Day

Two days after I bought into Treasury Wine Estates (TWE.AX), the company had an investor day where they announced that they would focus on luxury and trendy wines and greatly reduce the number of brands and product lines. They also said that they were reviewing their US operations and were getting good sales growth in China–better than other wine producers. Investors were very happy with this presentation and the stock is currently up 13%. I bought another 7,500 shares to get to 17,500.


 

 

Tuesday, June 02, 2026

Having Another Run at Treasury Wine Estates

I did well on my trade last time. Stock is beaten down but rebounding a little. I sold 50 shares of Berkshire Hathaway to fund this.

 Daou Vineyard, California

Friday, May 22, 2026

Fixing Margin Loan Interest Rate?

A year ago, I fixed most of my CommSec margin loan at a constant rate for the year ahead. The rate I got was 7.54% compared to a variable rate of 9.4%. I just got an email from CommSec asking whether I want to fix my rate again. The fixed rate is now 9.2%, but the variable rate has only increased to 9.65%. Clearly, I made the right choice to fix my loan, but this doesn't look like a good option going forward. Instead, I will reduce my borrowing probably by selling my gold ETF holdings, or at least some of them, especially if the recent budget CGT measures are passed by Parliament. The Greens hold the balance of power, but they think that nominal gains should be taxed at ordinary income tax rates and that there should be no grandfathering, so they might yet derail things for Labor.

Friday, May 15, 2026

54 Wellington

The Liberman Family ended up liquidating their property fund as a result of developing this office building. And ASA Diversified Property Fund, which our SMSF is a unitholder of, ended up buying it for a bargain price that is much less than replacement cost.


Monday, May 04, 2026

Pabrai Funds

Monish Pabrai is a well-known value investor who is often interviewed. He recently launched an actively managed ETF: WAGN listed on NASDAQ. After watching the interview and hearing about the ETF, I was curious about his performance. I found online his investor letter from 2020. PIF2, which started in 2000, returned 15.4% per year up to 2019 compared to the S&P 500's 7.1%. This sounds good, but the fund had extreme volatility, and so its information ratio was 0.54 compared to 0.48 for the S&P 500. You might still want to invest on this basis but PIF3, which started in 2002 returned 10.3% vs 8.2% for the S&P 500 with even higher volatility and PIF4 underperformed the S&P 500 also with extreme volatility. PIF4 has continued this pattern since 2020. The mutual fund and ETF have done well since inception in 2023 but I think it is likely that this pattern of high volatility continues. So, for now, I decided not to invest.

Saturday, May 02, 2026

Education Bonds

I just discovered an investment structure I had never heard of: Education Bonds. These are an Australian investment structure that is similar to investment bonds but with some twists. We have an investment bond in Little My's name at Generation Life. We used it to invest the money he inherited from my mother. 

First, I will describe an investment bond again. It is an investment that pays tax in the fund nominally at 30%. If you hold it for 10 years and then withdraw the money you don't pay any additional tax. If you withdraw it before 10 years you owe tax on the earnings at your regular tax rates but get a 30% tax offset. You can reset the 10 year term by contributing a new investment of more than 125% of the previous year's investment. Why would you want to do that? If your tax rate or a child who you made the beneficiary end up having a tax rate below 30%, you'll pay less tax then if you withdraw the money.

Most of this applies to an education bond too. These are the differences:

1. You can withdraw the contributions without tax or penalty at any time. Only the earnings are locked up for 10 years.

2. You can make a claim to pay for education expenses and withdraw earnings to do so. When you do this, you get the tax paid added onto the amount you withdraw. So, there is no tax in the fund on these withdrawals. This can be done at any time, not just after 10 years.

3. The twist is that the beneficiary whose education you are paying for is liable for tax on the earnings. Children under 18 have very high penalty tax rates (one reason we used an investment bond for Little My). So, beyond the tax-free $416 per year this really wouldn't make sense. Once they turn 18, the regular adult rates apply including the tax free threshold.

4. Here is the really interesting part: You can keep any education bills incurred since you started the education bond and claim them in a later year. So, you could claim school tuition from 2026 in 2036 say!

5. If you withdraw all your contributions and then want to withdraw earnings without valid education bills, the standard investment bond rules apply.

6. The downside is you are limited to the investment options the provider has and an additional administration fee. After all, they have to deal with all these education claims... For Australian Unity this additional fee is 0.7% p.a. 

There are only a few providers and so far Australian Unity seems most attractive. Generation Life don't offer this product.

Basically, this is a way of tax-sheltering some investment income in a similar way to income splitting through a family trust. But it is much more restrictive on investments and possibly has higher fees (our SMSF pays 0.3% p.a.). You are only really going to be directly paying for higher education expenses using this.

For someone in my position, it might make sense after you have maxed out your tax free super pension and you are already above the tax-free bracket of income tax on your non-super earnings, which is true in my case. The problem is that actually trying to reclaim all the children's private school fees during the 3 or so years they are in Uni would push them into the 30% marginal tax bracket, which is probably where I will be myself. If they are working part time they might already use up the tax free allowance (currently AUD 18.2k), which would make the tax savings small. And this is assuming they go to Uni. With these considerations, the 0.7% annual fee, and limited investment options, I am undecided if this is worthwhile.

 

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Masterworks Reverses Changes to Secondary Market

I recently reported that Masterworks had redesigned their secondary market. How exactly the new market would work was unclear, but you needed to make a new phone call with them before doing any trading and it seemed that they would send you opportunities to buy shares rather than their being a market with openly posted prices. Now, they have announced via email that they are reversing these changes:


"Hi everyone,

We recently announced changes to how secondary market trading works on Masterworks. We didn't get this one right, and we're sorry for the confusion. Based on your feedback, we've reversed or cancelled those planned changes and the secondary market is back to working the way it did before.

Our goal remains to make the secondary market more effective and user-friendly for all investors. We're continuing to work on improvements and will keep you updated as things develop.

In the meantime, if you'd like help navigating the trading platform, our secondary market advisory services are available to you. You can schedule a call to receive personalized guidance from our team here.

Thank you for your patience and your feedback."

I will take a look and see how things are going before deciding on whether to do some more trades. One of the paintings that I did buy last month has now had an exit above the price I paid, which provides some support for my approach to selecting secondary investments.
 

Saturday, April 04, 2026

USVC

AngelList have announced a new mutual fund investing in venture capital called USVC. You can invest as little as USD 500. I have been thinking about investing in this via our SMSF. Previously, I wanted to invest in Unpopular Ventures on the AngelList platform using the SMSF but SuperGuardian, our administrator, said it wasn't allowed because of the partnership structure. Instead, we invested in Moominmama's name. This isn't a partnership, so it should be OK. It seems to be open to non-US investors despite the mutual fund structure. On the other hand, I feel I am too contrarian to be happy investing in all these US AI companies at this stage. At least 80% of the fund will be in US venture. That is why I like Unpopular Ventures because it is truly global. In retrospect I would have done much better with my investments if I had been less contrarian. But it is just this fundamental character trait. So, I try to work with it rather than against it. I feel uncomfortable going with the majority.

Friday, March 13, 2026

Masterworks "Redesigns" Secondary Market

I recently invested USD 5,000 in paintings I bought at large discounts on the Masterworks secondary market. I was thinking to do more such purchases now and then and gradually build up a more diversified portfolio. I targeted offerings that had appreciated since their initial offering and so were more likely to have a near term exit, which were selling at large discounts - up to 50% of appraised value.

Bracco di Ferro by Basquiat

Masterworks was only allowing buy orders to be placed for one day at a time. I think the idea was to force buyers to buy at the offer price and so maybe push prices up. But the result was that someone casually looking at the site saw piles of sell orders and no buy orders and would conclude that this was not a good investment. 

Then today we got an email from Masterworks saying that in future sellers will need to discuss their planned sales with Masterworks and buyers will be offered curated offers. You need to sign a new agreement to participate. From my reading of the agreement, they will charge an extra 2% p.a. AUM fee for participating. I've emailed the firm for clarification on that. If so, I won't participate. I am guessing they plan to buy shares at a discount from sellers and then sell them at a marked up price to buyers.

Recently, I talked to their sales guy who offered me investments in funds. These funds consist of shares in paintings which Masterworks has received as annual management fees. They are offered at a 10% discount to appraised value. The minimum investment for one fund was USD 100k and for the other 25k. I told him I preferred to buy in the secondary market. I guess a bunch of people have told them that. Now maybe the 25k fund looks a little attractive but it also includes paintings that are trading way below their initial offering price that I think might never be exited.

P.S. 16 March 2026

I got an email back from Masterworks saying that they didn't intend to add an additional 2% fee and they will change the wording of the agreement.

Friday, February 27, 2026

Switching to Gold in Little My's Portfolio

 

Little My (our younger child) has an investment bond managed by Generation Life. Now and then I decide to tweak the portfolio allocation. I just noticed that iShares Physical Gold is now an option. So, I am switching from Magellan Global (soon to be managed by L1 instead) to gold. Gold is in the target portfolio and my own portfolio and we already have more than 1/3 of the portfolio managed by L1. So this is the new allocation:

iShares Physical Gold: 9%

Atlas Infrastructure: 8%

L1 Long Short Fund: 35%

Generation Life Tax Effective Australian Shares: 20%

Dimensional 70/30 World Allocation: 28% 

So, in terms of asset classes:

Australian Shares: 30%

International Shares: 10% 

Hedge Funds: 35% 

Credit 8% 

Real Assets: 8%

Gold: 9%

The gold position is not quite one ounce (shown in the picture above). 

The portfolio is more aggressive than the target portfolio, which makes sense as Little My is very young.