Showing posts with label Investments Review. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Investments Review. Show all posts

Sunday, March 30, 2025

Investment Action Plan

This is the action plan resulting from the Investments Review:

Immediate Action

1. Stop re-investing distributions at Winton Global Alpha.

2. Stop re-investing distributions at Aspect Diversified Futures. 

3. Stop re-investing distributions at ASADPF.

4. Switch from TIAA Real Estate to CREF Social Choice in my US retirement account.

Longer Term

5. Monitor and sell: Bitcoin, URF, Defi Technologies, TGF

6. Monitor and reduce: WAR, CDO, WMA

7. Add? CD3, WCMQ, Domacom if the management company looks more stable. 

 

Investments Review 8: Developing Alternative Investments

The last installment of the Investments Review, though, actually, there will be an action plan coming up!

Bitcoin Portfolio share: 11.9% IRR: 40%. We hold Bitcoin across the SMSF and our individual Interactive Brokers accounts. I first got into Bitcoin in 2019 when CME futures were introduced, thinking it would be good to trade it. I made some money and gave some back. Then last year, when the spot ETFs were launched I decided to do longer term trading. I got in a bit late and made things worse for myself by buying more when the price had already risen into the $70k range. Then the late 2024 surge generated some profit, which has been partially given back at this stage. The current game plan is to sell the ETFs sometime this year, based on market indicators. I am beginning to think of switching then to shorter term trading again, we will see.

Winton Global Alpha Portfolio share: 3.3% IRR: 4%. This is my larger managed futures investment. We hold it in the SMSF as it is not tax efficient. It didn't do well when interest rates were low and especially going into the pandemic. Then there was a big surge, as interest rates increased. These investments do well in high interest rate/high inflation environments. Recently, I redeemed some of the investment. Possibly, I should set distributions to be paid out rather than re-invested.

Masterworks Portfolio share: 2.6% IRR: 3%. I started investing through this fractional art investing platform in 2018. I have had a three profitable "exits" but the remainder of the portfolio is mostly down and I haven't added more. The IRR is pretty low. I will wait for this to gradually wind down I think.

Aspect Diversified Futures Portfolio share: 1.9% IRR: 12%. I invested in this (through Colonial First State) to diversify my managed futures holdings. We hold this in the SMSF too. The period of rising interest rates was good, but it is not doing so well since interest rates started to decline. Possibly, I should set the distributions to be paid out rather than be re-invested.

CD3 Portfolio share: 1.6% IRR: 13%. This ASX listed fund mostly invests in US private equity. It is also in the SMSF. It is trading at a large discount to NAV and has a good IRR. The portfolio is quite mature and exits are occurring. So, I think this is a good investment that I will continue to hold and maybe add more to.


Saturday, March 29, 2025

Investments Review 7: Developing Real Estate Investments

The smaller investments have done better here, which is not optimal...

TIAA Real Estate Portfolio Share: 3.3% IRR: 4%.  I don't have a chart for this one. Currently this is the only holding in my US retirement account (403b). I would have done better investing in a balanced fund instead. The advantages of this fund are that it has very low volatility and it is possible to predict when it is going to go up or down. So, I have switched between this and the CREF Social Choice Fund. But just sticking with the latter would have given a better return. So, perhaps I just should switch back to that.

ASADPF Portfolio Share: 1.9% IRR: 3%. This fund was originally run by Australian Unity, had a fair degree of leverage and had performed well. It was one of the initial investments in our SMSF. It also has low exposure to office property. Most Australia property funds are office-centric. But profit peaked in February 2023 and the unit value has declined 14% since then. Australian Unity made a various attempts to sell or merge the fund. In the end. ASA took it over. It is very illiquid, though we could get the distributions paid out instead of reinvested. I have been thinking of doing that.

 


URF Portfolio Share: 1.0% IRR: 10%. This is a listed fund invested in residential real estate in the New York metro area. The managers are gradually selling off the assets. The original investors in the fund lost lots of money. I came in when it was already distressed. The fund continues to trade a lot below net asset value but has caught up quite a bit recently and so we have reduced our holding. The fund NAV does not take into the selling costs of the inventory. So probably fair value is near 50 cents rather than the stated 60 cents per share. It currently trades at about 40 cents. I would sell the rest if it got nearer to 50 cents.


 

Domacom Investments Portfolio Share: 0.8% IRR: 13%. Domacom is a platform for making fractional investments in real estate etc. The company, which I have also invested in, has struggled to build a big enough portfolio to be profitable and is perpetually on the brink of bankruptcy. It is in the process of re-inventing itself as Assetora. But some of the investments on the platform, which are in segregated funds, have been quite profitable. I have bought into investments after they traded below their original offer prices. Initially, I invested in a farm, which has now been sold, then in two properties near the new Sydney airport, and two NDIS properties in Perth and the Sunshine Coast. All of these are doing well.


Sunday, March 23, 2025

Investments Review 6b: More Developing Stock Investments

Because of the delay in completing this review, the last of these is now an unprofitable investment!

WCM Global (WCMQ.AX): 1.7% of net worth, 1RR 15%. This is an actively managed ETF that targets global "quality" stocks. It is managed by US manager WCM but is listed on the ASX.


There is a history of using this stock to fund other new investments (Bitcoin I think) and then more recently re-investing in it as it has a good track record:

 

The ASX gained 66% in this period and the MSCI 90%. Seems good to me.

WAM Strategic Value (WAR.AX): 1.6% of net worth, IRR 1%. This fund specializes in mainly investing in other listed funds that trade below NAV. We invested at the IPO (a mistake):


While overall it has done nothing much, it has done well in the last 1-2 years. I think this should be monitored. Maybe can be a source for investing in other things...

Regal Partners (RPL.AX): 1.4% of net worth, IRR -8%. This is a leading Australian alternative asset manager, which I normally include in the Australian small cap asset category. I thought this company was doing well, but since the release of the most recent earnings report, the market doesn't agree:

 

I think in the long-term they should do well or be acquired by a larger fund manager, so am inclined to hold. Of six analysts who follow this stock, five rate it a strong buy. Morningstar Quantitative value it at $3.16, about 10% above the current stock price.

Investments Review 6a: Developing Stock Investments

I decided to rename this category "developing" as opposed to the mature investments we considered earlier. This section covers five Australian funds and stocks. The first two are in this post. Graphs are all in Australian Dollars.

First Sentier Imputation Fund: We now have 1.6% of net worth in this fund. This is the last remaining investment in an account, which was once my core investment. The fund aims to combine long-term capital growth with tax-effective income by targeting Australian growth companies with a high level of franked dividends. It aims to outperform the S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index over rolling three year periods before fees and taxes.

The fund has consistently outperformed its benchmark:

Our IRR is 16%. The only downside of this fund is that the unlisted unit trust structure is not very tax efficient, as all gains are paid out in distributions. An alternative is Wilson Asset Management's Leaders Fund (WLE.AX), which is more tax efficient. We have held that for a while in the past but ended up selling to raise cash for other investments. It has done better over three and five years than FS Imputation but much worse in the last year.

This was one of my earliest investments but then I didn't hold any for 20 years until 2021 when I began to consolidate other funds in the account into it. Distributions gradually pay back our investment.

Cadence Opportunities Fund (CDO.AX): 2.5% of net worth. IRR is only 3.5%. It is a long-biased listed Australian equity hedge fund. I recently consolidated my investment in sister fund CDM.AX into this one. 


CDO has more flexibility to quickly trade in and out of positions. Initially, the fund did extremely well. Then it became practically a twin of CDM. However, recently it has again begin to diverge in a positive way from CDM. It's not really doing well though. It's still way below the 2022 peak, unlike CFS Imputation above. Unless it starts to do a lot better soon, I don't think there is a good reason to hold it.

Thursday, February 20, 2025

Investments Review 5: Mature Stock Investments

We usually classify the first of these investments as a hedge fund and the rest as stock investments, but here we can bundle them together as stock investments. The first two are very successful while the second two are questionable. 

We start with our fifth biggest investment currently, Pershing Square Holdings (PSH.L) managed by Bill Ackman:

Scale: Pounds Sterling

We gradually ramped our investment up to 5,000 shares and then have let our net investment decline with dividend payouts. In the meantime, profit continued to increase. The fund trades 28% below NAV. So, part of our investment thesis is that the gap to NAV will reduce over time. Pershing Square went through a period of under-performance in the years before we invested. Since then they revised their strategy and have done very well. Our IRR is 24%. The question here is whether we should add to the investment. On the one hand, it is 7% of net worth already. On the other hand, it has performed well, is below NAV, and our net investment is only about 1/3 of the total value.

Our sixth largest investment (6.1% of net worth) is Defi Technologies (DEFI.NE and DEFTF):

Scale: US Dollars

This shows that a mature investment is not the same thing as an investment held for a long time if you get lucky! Our IRR is a crazy 378%. We invested roughly 2% of net worth in this company.

We first invested in Generation Global Share Fund, which is a Colonial First State offering, back in 2008 when it was called the Generation Global Sustainability Fund. The fund is closed to new investors, which is one reason why I never sold out of it, but also it has performed well historically returning an above average 13% IRR. However, at the previous review in 2021 it had an IRR of 16.5%. So what happened since then? I ramped up our investment in 2021. This was good timing as you can see profit soared. However, it round-tripped back to 2020 values in 2022. We have let our net investment decline since then as distributions were paid out. But profit has rebounded to new highs.


Scale: Australian Dollars

This is now the only remaining investment in the Colonial First State account I set up for Moominmama in 2008 soon after we moved to Australia. We now have 1.8% of net worth in this investment. So how is this fund doing now compared to benchmarks?

While it outperformed the benchmark over the last 10 years, it has underperformed in more recent periods. So, this isn't a clearcut decision. We need to compare this to our other international share funds. One reason to hold would be to maintain diversity of managers.  Maybe this manager will increase performance in the future again while others will decrease... Because funds like this end up distributing most gains we don't need to worry about CGT.

Finally, we have Hearts and Minds (HM1.AX). This is an Australian listed investment company that invests globally using the highest conviction ideas of an array of fund managers. 35% of the holdings are based on stocks spruiked by fund managers at the annual Australian Sohn Investment Conference. The positions are then closed by the next conference. That is a good idea, but one year may be too short for all these investments to work out. And, sometimes, the conference has strayed off the path of sensible investments. Also, the management fees are donated to charity. I invested at the IPO.

Scale: Australian Dollars

I have been gradually reducing our exposure and moving the money to what I perceived as better opportunities. We have only 1.1% of net worth in this stock now. On the other hand, the fund has improved its performance in the last couple of years:Overall, our IRR has been 9%. Our net investment is now close to zero, so I am inclined to hold our position and see what happens. On the other hand, we could simplify things by eliminating this small position.

Investments Review 4: Mature Private Equity Investments

3i (III.L) is one of our more successful and larger investments with an IRR of 24% and a net worth share of 4.4%. Note that the scale on the graph is in Pounds Sterling. They are a UK based private equity manager. Most of the capital they manage now is proprietary capital and so you are investing in the combo of fund manager and fund. I first invested in 3i in 2008 but the position was very small until we started ramping up our investment in 2018 peaking at 5,000 shares in 2022. Since then, I sold off 1,500 shares because I was concerned that the majority of their portfolio was in a single company - Action, a European chain of discount stores. This took our net investment down to zero. A classic mature investment.😀 Obviously in retrospect we would have done better by just sticking with 3i.

 

Pengana Private Equity (PE1.AX) did well for a while but then went sideways since early 2023. Overall it has achieved an IRR of 19%. With good timing, I reduced my investment dramatically at the start of the sideways period. The money was redeployed in another undervalued PE fund - CD3.AX. Since then I have added some back when it seemed a lot undervalued relative to NAV. It's now at 1.6% of net worth, which isn't that big. Hopefully, it will close more of the undervaluation gap and private equity will again do better.


Aura VF1 is a conventional Australian venture capital fund that preceded Aura VF2. Net worth share is 2.8% and IRR is 15%. Both the ramp up and now down in invested capital is dictated by the fund manager. The fund has one big success story - Shippit - and a mix of smaller successes and failures. Management fees will erode the value gradually if there are no mark ups... So we just need to wait for an exit from Shippit to get our money back. Unfortunately, exits from venture capital are still relatively few and far between.



Tuesday, February 18, 2025

Investments Review 3: Mature Alternative Investments

We start with our best investment ever in dollar terms: gold. 

I first invested in gold back in 2006. Then there was a long period where there was no gold investment or trading till 2018 when I inherited a gold sovereign. Maybe this sparked my interest in investing in gold again starting in 2019. We invest via gold ETFs. We gradually ramped up our investment as cash became available to the end of 2021. Since then we have maintained the gold allocation at around 10% of gross assets and withdrawn cash of around AUD 350k in total. This has gone primarily to funding venture capital investments. Total AUD profit has been almost $500k and it now constitutes 9.9% of net worth with an IRR of 16.9%. At this point this beats our venture capital investments hands down. So, on a short-term basis we should have stuck with gold. In the long term, who knows? On the other hand, this remains a large investment.

Next is our investment in Regal Investment Fund (RF1.AX). It now includes hedge funds, venture investments, real assets, and private credit. We bought at the IPO and then doubled our investment a little while later. We cashed out around the post-pandemic peak and then bought back in. However, the fund has not replicated its amazing performance of 2020-21 but on the other hand has not done badly and so we have been content to let our net investment drift down with dividends and occasional trades. More recently we have added to our position again including through a share placement:

At this point, I am happy to wait and see, as it has gained 26% over the last year. Lifetime IRR is 26.5% and net worth share is 3.6%. 

Wilson Alternative Assets (WMA.AX) is another diversified alternatives fund. Unlike RF1 it continues to trade at a large discount to NAV. We ramped up our investment into 2021 and then let it drift down with distributions paid out. As a result the value of the investment has been constant for a few years but profit has slowly increased. Here I am waiting for some more closing of the gap to NAV, as when Wilson took it on they promised to close the gap or put the future of the fund to a vote.

IRR has been 10.7% and currently it makes up 3.0% of net worth.

Monday, February 17, 2025

Investments Review 2: Mature Superannuation Fund Investments

We each have an employer superannuation fund. Moominpapa has Unisuper (Sustainable Balanced Option) and Moominmama PSS(AP) (Balanced). Each is a diversified fund. PSS(AP) has more private equity, hedge funds, and real assets, while Unisuper is more public stock focused, particularly international stocks. These are two of our biggest investments. Unisuper is 10.0% of net worth and PSS(AP) 8.3%. And they have performed fairly well. Unisuper has an IRR of 10.5% and PSS(AP) 8.9%. We need to keep making contributions into these funds if we want to get the full employer superannuation contribution (I think). But we could roll over some of the money to our SMSF if we wanted. In fact, I have begun to do that using a transition to retirement pension. You can already see the effect in this graph:

 

That's the move down in the red line (net investment) on the right. This is classified as a mature investment, because profit (golden line) exceeds the red line. Back in the 1990s I contributed to Unisuper (or SSAU in the early days). You can see that saving at the left. But then I rolled it over into Colonial First State's retail fund, which allowed me to invest in a geared share fund, greatly expanding my investment. Eventually, I rolled that over into the SMSF. As will usually be the case, almost all the profit has been made since 2012 and the majority since the pandemic low.

We have "only" been investing in PSS(AP) since 2007. Again, we made no money till 2012 and the majority since March 2020:


 

The net investment or input curve is now sloping down because:

  • Moominmama is now working part-time
  • We only make employer contributions to the fund and make additional contributions for her to the SMSF.
  • Profit is computed pre-tax and in order for the value (green) to be equal to the sum of profit and input we need to deduct the imputed tax from the input series.

So, we are kind of divesting from this fund too. 

This is what mature investments will look like - profit is still climbing though we are pulling money out of them.

Sunday, February 16, 2025

Investments Review 1: Unprofitable Investments

We have six unprofitable investments:

  • Tribeca Global Resources Fund (TGF.AX)
  • Unpopular Ventures
  • Aura VF2
  • Dash Technologies/IPS
  • Domacom (DCL.AX)
  • Pershing Square Tontine Holdings (PSTH) 

We can only sell the first of these... You are going to see a lot of graphs like this during this investment review:

 

The red line is the net cash we have invested, the green line is the current value of the investment, and the golden line is profit. I bought this investment at the IPO (a mistake). I reviewed TGF in the previous investments review here. The investment was marketed on the basis of the high returns the team got with this strategy prior to launch. But unfortunately that performance has not been replicable. Instead, their performance has been erratic to the up and down side. I ramped up my investment by "buying the dip" until 2021 but then missed the chance to cash out at the top. Since then, net investment has declined as dividends have been paid out. But net profit has also drifted down. I guess I am hoping the managers have another bout of erratic out-performance allowing me to cash out at a profit, but I seriously wonder if I should just sell instead. Our internal rate of return (IRR) is -0.5% and the investment is 2.8% of net worth

What's up with all the other unprofitable investments that we can't do anything about?

Unpopular Ventures is a venture fund on Angellist. We contribute USD 10k per quarter to their "rolling fund" and occasionally invest in some of their syndicates. The investments have so far generated a little net profit. But the fund is managed on a 2 and 20 basis and you pay ten years of 2% annual management fees up front! So, each investment in the Rolling Fund is immediately marked down by 20% or so.

Our internal rate of return is -7% indicating the underlying profitability. And their funds from the years immediately prior to our initial investment have done very well. So, we could stop making new contributions here, but I think we can continue until the fund is at 5% of net worth say. We are now at 3.5%.

Aura VF2 is a conventional Australian venture fund that is still making capital calls. One of their early investments, Lygon, went bust but has been restructured. This is the main reason the investment is down. Some of their other investments are doing well. The IRR is -3% and the investment is 2.6% of net worth.

Dash Technologies took over Integrated Portfolio Solutions, which was an Aura Venture investment. Unfortunately, IPS didn't manage to make the breakthrough they hoped for when we invested in the syndicate. The takeover was for a mix of cash and shares in Dash. Half the cash has been distributed, the rest is coming later this year. The remaining investment is 0.6% of net worth. The IRR has been -5%.

Domacom provides fractionalised investments in real estate in Australia. It is currently suspended from the ASX. My investment thesis was that the company was likely to be acquired by a larger financial institution that could leverage the investment through its distribution network. But that never happened and I missed the opportunity to get out during the previous period when the company was relisted on the exchange. It has gone through a lot of recapitalizations and things are again looking up. It is only 0.1% of net worth with a -36% IRR!

Finally, PSTH was a SPAC vehicle set up by Pershing Square Holdings. It tried to acquire Universal Music Group but was blocked. Ackman has restructured the company and claims to be still looking for targets. So, it has zero carrying value and it is a case of wait and see. The IRR has been -13%.

Investments Review: 2025 Edition

I have been closing some investments that I wasn't happy with, but it's several years since I systematically reviewed my investments. Currently, we "only" have around 30 investments if we bundle micro-investments with Unpopular Ventures and Masterworks into two single investments. But it could still be too many. This time I want to look at things in a different way. Instead of looking at asset classes, I will look at investments based on their maturity.

A mature investment has total profit that is greater than the net cash invested. This could be because either it has been super-successful or because we have pulled out part or all of our original investment. The remaining investments are either profitable or unprofitable. It looks like we have 12-13 investments in each of the mature and profitable baskets and 6 in the unprofitable basket. I think I'll start with the unprofitable basket as it is easiest to deal with.

Wednesday, July 24, 2024

Sold All My Shares in Platinum Capital

The company announced the result of its strategic review: They will merge the listed investment company PMC.AX and their ETF PIXX.AX. The price jumped on the news to the $1.45-1.46 range. This leaves about a 5% potential gain to the current NAV of PMC.AX. But we have to wait probably till the end of the year for the plan to come fruition, and if PMC.AX continues to underperform as it has recently, the NAV can fall. So, I sold all my shares today.

It was one of my oldest investments. I first invested in 2001 but sold during the dot.com crash. I then reinvested in 2005 and have held varying amounts of shares since then. The internal rate of return has been 12.02%, which was enhanced by trading the shares. Total profit AUD 100,530.



Friday, April 12, 2024

APSEC Update

I invested in the APSEC hedge fund back in 2020 just after they outperformed strongly in the COVID19 crash. They have managed to about match the ASX 200 over time with somewhat lower volatility:

They tend to outperform in bear markets and under-perform in bull markets. Since investing, I have only gotten a 5.9% internal rate of return, which is below average. The median IRR of my current investments is 9%. I would have done better by investing more in the Aspect Diversified Futures Fund instead, which has similar hedging properties, where I have had a 22% IRR. We have 2.47% of net worth in the fund all of it within the SMSF. I submitted a redemption notice for all of our holding today.


Wednesday, April 10, 2024

... and The China Fund

Also sold out of The China Fund (CHN) at a huge loss for this account (SMSF) though we only lost a little (USD -1.7k) in the long-term as we previously had positions in other accounts that did well. Should have gotten out a long time ago, of course. Internal rate of return to date was -0.75%.

Sold Berkshire Hathaway

I sold my 100 shares of BRK/B. The last earnings report raised questions about the performance of several major Berkshire businesses. My target asset allocation said I could reduce my exposure to US shares and I wanted to do something else with the money. Yeah, I bought more bitcoin. Munger would have been horrified.


Total profit on Berkshire to date was USD 18k and the internal rate of return was 11.09%.

Monday, June 14, 2021

Investments Review: Part 8, Managed Futures

Managed futures have not performed well in recent years, but I am betting that they will make a bit of a comeback.

Macquarie Winton Global Alpha Fund. Share of net worth: 3.53%. IRR: -0.3%. This is a Macquarie Bank fund that provides access to the Winton fund management firm. Winton, Aspect, and Man AHL are all offshoots of the same original Adam, Harding, and Lueck team. Our profits in this fund peaked in August 2019 at AUD 29k and then fell to a minimum of AUD -19k in November 2020. Since then they have recovered to near break even.


Aspect Diversified Futures. Share of net worth: 2.04%. IRR: n.a. We hold this recent investment via the Colonial First State platform. It has performed better than Winton recently:



Investments Review: Part 7, Bonds

MCP Income Opportunities Fund (MOT.AX). Share of net worth: 1.75%. IRR: 14.8%. This fund invests in Australian private credit. It yields around 7% per annum. It performed better than other similar listed funds during the COVID crash. We use this to park cash that we don't need immediately as it pays more than our margin loans cost.

Ford. Share of net worth: 1.46%. IRR: 2.1%. We own two Ford bond issues that mature later this year. This is the tail end of the bond investments we made with the inherited money while we decided how to deploy it.

Ready Capital (RCB). Share of net worth: 0.77%. IRR: 5.3%. This is a so-called baby bond. These trade on US stock exchanges and usually have an issue and redemption price of $25. The distributions are considered to be interest but they have none of the other peculiarities of actual bond issues. They usually have high yields. This issue matures in July 2022 and has a "coupon" of 6.2%.

Investments Review: Part 6, Real Assets

In my usual reporting, gold is a separate category from real assets. I plan to put 10% of gross assets into gold and 15% into real assets. 10% would be in real estate and 5% in other assets, such as art.

Gold (PMGOLD.AX). Share of net worth: 12.10%. IRR: 15.2%. This is one of the more cost and tax effective ways to hold gold. The fund reflects rights to gold held by the Perth Mint. This is much more tax effective than using futures and less hassle than owning real gold, though Perth Mint provide some fairly easy options there. The IRR reflects our total gains on gold ETFs. The management fee is taken by the manager cancelling some shares each year. That means the price exactly tracks the Australian Dollar price of 1/100 of an ounce of gold.

WAM Alternatives (WMA.AX). Share of net worth: 4.32%. IRR: 16.9%. About 10% of this fund is in real estate and half in real assets, mainly water rights. The rest is in venture capital and cash. This fund was started by the failed Bluesky group and has now been taken over by Wilson Asset Management. The fund has traded deep below NAV. It has closed some of the gap but is still below NAV. I'm holding the fund mainly in the hope that eventually it trades at a premium to NAV. The underlying performance is not that good. In 2020 it lost 3 cents per share in NAV to $1.08 per share while paying out 4 cents in dividends. This year, so far it's gained 6 cents per share, which I guess is OK.

TIAA Real Estate. Share of net worth: 2.78%. IRR: 4.8%. This fund invests in US real estate - offices, retail, apartments, and industrial. It is in my US retirement account (403b). The IRR for this fund is low, but its returns are very smoothed and so it has a nominally high Sharpe ratio and a low correlation to my other assets. Based on my analysis, I'm hoping that the coming period is one of higher returns than average for this fund. It is easy to market time this fund due to the lag in revaluations.

Masterworks. Share of net worth: 2.63%. IRR: -0.28%. This fund provides fractional access to paintings, mostly works from the last few decades. I have now invested in nine paintings through the platform, investing USD 10k in each. Not much to report so far regarding performance. The downside of the platform I think, is that it isn't worthwhile for the manager to buy a painting for $100k or even $1 million. Buying a $10 million painting has a huge economy of scale for them. They are incentivised to make profits, but they could make it either by getting a lot of appreciation or less appreciation but more assets under management faster. Less expensive paintings that have a larger potential for gain cost them too much to offer.

US Masters Residential Property Fund (URF.AX). Share of net worth: 1.25%. IRR: -1.85%.This is an Australian fund that invests in residential real estate in metropolitan New York. The fund has had a quite disastrous history and now trades at less than 50% of NAV. The fund's underlying exposure to real estate is much larger than the value of the shares on the ASX. The fund has stabilized after refinancing its debt. Previously, it had assets in US Dollars and a lot of debt in Australian Dollars. My bet is that house prices rise in the New York area, that fund costs are now lower after the restructuring, and that the fund eventually trades nearer NAV.

Australian Unity Diversified Fund. Share of net worth: 1.17%. IRR: 28.2%. A recent investment in our SMSF. Invests in Australian office, retail, and healthcare real estate. This is unlisted property and so the price reflects the actual net asset value. Listed real estate provides much less diversification from stock market risk.

Domacom Investments. Share of net worth: 1.12%. IRR: 0.16%. Another recent investment in our SMSF. Fractional investing in Australian real estate. So far, I bought a small share in a farm, but the platform is very slow moving regarding new investments and most existing investments that are trading don't look like good bets.

Investments Review: Part 5, Private Equity

The private equity category includes both venture capital, buyout funds, and SPACs, which acquire private companies to take them public.

WAM Alternatives (WMA.AX). Share of net worth: 4.32%. IRR: 16.9%. About a quarter of this fund is allocated to venture capital (one quarter is in real estate and half in real assets, mainly water rights). This fund was started by the failed Bluesky group and has now been taken over by Wilson Asset Management. The fund has traded deep below NAV. It has closed some of the gap but is still below NAV. I'm holding the fund mainly in the hope that eventually it trades at a premium to NAV and for exposure to real assets like water rights. The underlying performance is not that good. In 2020 it lost 3 cents per share in NAV to $1.08 per share while paying out 4 cents in dividends. This year, so far it's gained 6 cents per share, which I guess is OK.

Aura Venture Fund I. Share of net worth: 3.05%. IRR: 20.0%. This is an early stage venture capital fund run by Australian/Singaporean company Aura. It invests in Australian start ups. This fund actually has a negative tax rate – fund earnings are tax free and you get a 10% tax offset on your investment contributions. This is part of the Australian government's policy to encourage start-up companies. None of its investees has failed, though some are now valued below the fund's initial investment price. Some have done really well. Shippit is the star. Some investees have already been exited or are on the way there. The latest is Superestate, which is a residential real estate super fund acquired by Raiz. Superestate has been struggling due to the incompetence of the ATO. The fund is receiving shares in Raiz, which is listed on the ASX, which value the company below the carrying value. Hopefully, Raiz will do well and the shares will gain in value.

Pengana Private Equity (PE1.AX). Share of net worth: 2.40%. IRR: 15.3%. This fund invests in mostly North American private equity (but also in Europe) via funds managed by its partner Grosvenor Capital Management. There are a LOT of fees in this structure, but when I attended the pre-IPO presentation I was persuaded that there was still upside for investors. Initially the share price performed very well and I made money trading the stock. But then the firm issued more shares and the price has settled at NAV. It has struggled to make headway due to the rise in the Australian Dollar negating the gains on the underlying funds. So, the IRR mostly reflects my earlier trading.

3i (III.L). Share of net worth: 2.06%. IRR: 13.8%. This is my oldest private equity investment. I first invested in 2008, during the GFC. By investing in this company, you invest in the business itself, but also in its investments. The firm invests its own capital as well as managing outside funds. When I first invested, the firm invested in venture and buyout. It has pivoted to invest in buyout and infrastructure. It also manages far less outside money than it did. I haven't really been following the company in detail recently until I had to write this report. The proprietary capital is mostly invested in private equity. The fund invests mostly in Europe (but also in North America).

Aura Venture Fund II. Share of net worth: 1.40%. IRR: n.a. Based on the success of Aura VF I, I invested 2.5 times as much money in their next fund. It has not yet made any investments. The initial investment is 25% of the total. So, this would be about 5% of our current net worth when fully invested (not counting any returns on top of that).

Pershing Square Tontine Holdings (PSTH). Share of net worth: 1.35%. IRR: n.a. My newest investment. Pershing announced that they are going to acquire a 10% stake in Universal Music (UMG), which Vivendi is taking public in the next couple of months. But that will leave cash in PSTH and Ackman has a convoluted plan for keeping the company going as a private equity company, acquiring private companies and taking them public. Investors didn't like the UMG deal, but I think it is worth being in on the potential upside of future deals.

Tuesday, June 08, 2021

Investments Review: Part 4, Hedge Funds

Regal Funds (RF1.AX). Share of net worth: 5.63%. IRR: 45.7%. This is a multi-strategy hedge fund listed on the ASX that has performed very well since the COVID crash:

It has a beta of one to the stock market but has added a lot of alpha. The downside is that it has a trust structure and, therefore, pays out all profits in the form that they were earned in. So, it is not very tax-effective. We have now moved our holding to our SMSF. The stated focus is on Australian stocks, but they hold a lot of foreign stocks too.

Tribeca Global Natural Resources (TGF.AX). Share of net worth: 5.57%. IRR: 19.2%. This a global resource sector focused hedge fund listed on the ASX. From launch the price collapsed from $2.50 to under $1. They also lost a lot of money on a large loan to a US based coal mining company. They now have revised the investment guidelines to prevent a recurrence. The NAV is now above the IPO price and the stock price is almost there. We have gained a lot by buying when the price was depressed as well as in after-tax terms by selling when the price was depressed to take a tax loss.

Pershing Square Holdings (PSH.L). Share of net worth: 5.33%. IRR: 39.8%. This fund is listed on the London stock exchange but managed by Bill Ackman, a famous US hedge fund manager. The fund is very focused. They invest in around 10 large cap mostly US stocks at any one time. It is mostly a long fund. But they gained during the COVID crash by putting on a credit -ased hedge. Almost perfect market timing. The history of Pershing Square Holdings has been a bit erratic but since we invested it has been very good. The fund is still trading a lot below net asset value. Pershing Square Tontine Holdings has been in the news recently following its deal to buy 10% of Universal Music. I'm still not clear what will be the pay-off for PSH.L holders from this deal. Both PSTH and PSH fell on the news.

Cadence Capital (CDM.AX). Share of net worth: 3.80%. IRR: 10.2%. This is a long-biased long-short fund that mostly invests in Australian stocks. I invested in this fund when it had been performing well. Then, soon enough, it started to perform badly. Since the COVID crash it has done well. They also invested in a private investment in DeepGreen Minerals, which will be taken public by a SPAC for a huge gain on Cadence's investment price. I am thinking to trim my exposure to this fund once the price has built in the value of the DeepGreen Investment. There is no reason to hold both this and the Cadence Opportunities Fund, and this is also the worst performing of the hedge funds that I have held for at least a few years.

Cadence Opportunities Fund. Share of net worth: 2.76%. IRR: 41.6%. This fund was launched recently by the managers of Cadence Capital. This fund has performed extremely well. It is a long-biased long-short fund that trades more actively than CDM.AX. It was supposed to be listed on the ASX but the IPO failed and it became a private company. At the time I didn't invest. That was a bad decision. When a second opportunity to invest came up, I took it. Our IRR so far shows that was a good move.

Platinum Capital (PMC.AX). Share of net worth: 2.67%. IRR: 13.0%. I first invested in Platinum Capital back in 2001. Over time, we also held various unlisted versions of the fund. I have gained by trading the fund depending on whether the share price was above or below NAV. The fund's best performance was during the dot.com crash when I first invested in it. Most of the time since then it has underperformed the market but has also had lower volatility. In the last year, value investing has come back into favor and the fund has again been outperforming the market.

APSEC. Share of net worth: 2.07%. IRR: -7.5%. This is an unlisted Australian stocks focused hedge fund. They did very well in the COVID crash:

So, I invested in them, and then they haven't done so well since then.

Contango Income Generator (CIE.AX). Share of net worth: 1.41%. IRR: -11.9%. This is a very new investment, so the IRR likely is pretty meaningless. This listed fund recently changed strategy to a global equity long short portfolio managed by WCM Investment Management. This is supposed to be their track record:

This was the result of an activist campaign by Wilson Asset Management. It is supposed to be hedged into the Australian Dollar.

In summary, a bit more than half of our hedge fund exposure is to the Australian Dollar but there is definitely quite a lot more international than Australian equity exposure.