Chosing a Fixed vs. Variable Interest Rate Again

I fixed the rate of my CommSec margin loan over the last year. I now have a choice for next year. The variable rate is 9.65% while the fixed rate is 7.79%. For the variable rate to pay off, the Reserve Bank would have to cut its interest rate by more than 1.86% on average over the course of the next year. So, for example, if they don't start cutting interest rates till the middle of the year they would need to cut by 3.75% in total. I can't see that happening and so it makes sense to choose the fixed rate again.