Pre-Tax (Concessionary) Superannuation Contributions

After thinking about making after-tax retirement contributions, I thought today - Heh, I'm not even making the maximum pre-tax contributions. I've been making about $A28k a year in pre-tax contributions. Actually, that is supposedly my employer's contribution. In the university sector in Australia, employers contribute 17% on top of the nominal salary to superannuation for continuing (=permanent) employees, as opposed to the minimum government requirement of 9.5%. The maximum pre-tax contributions allowed for over 50's currently is $A35k per year ($A30k for under 50s). So, I just submitted the form to add $100 a week to my contributions. I didn't totally max things out to allow for a year or two of growth in salary before having to submit another form.

By the way, the standard agreement in the higher education sector includes another 8.5% pre-tax contribution from the employee's salary. I already opted out of that, because it would have been over the concessionary limit already when I started in 2011, when the concession limit was $A25k a year. Actually, I already had to withdraw an excess contribution to superannuation last year, which was a hassle, before the contribution limit was raised.

I'm still thinking about post-tax contributions. If I do it, I think I will start small at say $A1000 per month. That is small compared to the limit of $A15k per month :)

Moominvalley November 2015 Report

Here are our monthly accounts (in AUD):

The headline news is that we spent a lot of money. Some of the biggest expenditures (everything over a thousand dollars):

Gardener - building new garden: $2781 - this is just a first payment.
Obstetrician: $1898 - first payment too - unclear about Medicare/health fund reimbursement at this point.
Ikea: $2705 - hopefully we are more or less done with that. Included a new mattress for the bed in our downstairs room ($700), outdoor furniture, baby furniture, a couple of pieces of indoor furniture etc.

The $14k spending figure doesn't include our mortgage or payment to a builder doing some of the garden related work. With those added we are at about $19k in spending. You can see that extra money in the accounts as "transfer to housing". I'm regarding the payments to the builder as investment in the house as he is adding new structures but treating the gardener as consumption as he is replacing the existing garden. Buying houses and having babies is expensive :)

Stock markets were fairly flat this month. The ASX 200 fell 0.68%, the MSCI World Index fell  0.78%, but the S&P 500 rose 0.30%. The Australian Dollar rose again from $US0.7133 to $US0.7233. We lost 1.62% in Australian Dollar terms and 0.22% in US Dollar terms. So we underperformed the Australian market and the US market, but outperformed the MSCI. The best performing asset class for us was commodities, gaining 3.25%. The worst was private equity, losing 2.91%. The best performing investment was the Winton Global Alpha fund, which gained $3,159. Cadence Capital (CDM.AX) was second best, gaining $2,324.

As a result of all this, net worth fell $A20k including housing equity (+$US4k) to $1.471 million ($US1.065 million). We dissaved $4.1k on the current account, saved $3.1k in retirement accounts, and saved $3.2k in our house. Net result was $418 of saving.

After Tax Super vs. Offset Account

At the moment, Australians can contribute up to $A180k per year to superannuation from after tax money on top of up to $A35k (if over 50) from pre-tax income. This seems like a crazy high limit and has no analogue in the US retirement system, for example. There is now a lot of talk about lifetime caps on super contributions. An easy way to do this would be to cut or eliminate this post-tax contribution limit. I had thought about making post-tax contributions starting in about 5 years time (when I would be about 55) and up to retirement. In the meantime, the plan was to build up our offset account and then pay down and redraw the mortgage. But now I am thinking that government might eliminate the post-tax option, I am wondering whether it would make sense to make these contributions sooner.

The gain from adding post-tax money to super is the tax-free earnings on the money after retiring. However, at least at the moment investment taxes are lower than regular income taxes and so we are talking about avoiding an 10% (after franking dividend tax in 38% bracket) to 23.5% (long-term capital gains tax in 45% bracket) tax starting 10 to 15 years in the future. Let's say the super investments make an 8% return, then the extra yield from avoiding tax by investing in super rather than non-super investments is about 1.3% per year. And this won't start to 10-15 years out and it is uncertain that the opportunity will go away and stop us doing that a few years later.

In the meantime the offset account is earning 4.55% tax free virtual interest with perfect certainty. A superannuation account would probably earn that after tax in the next 10-15 years, but there is a lot of uncertainty about that and the money is locked up for the next 9 years.

Is the answer to diversify and do some of both strategies?

Moom's Taxes: Part 2

I only underestimated the amount of extra taxes that I owe by $5. I don't know why I also wasn't charged an extra amount of tax for private health insurance. That part of the tax return is complicated to understand. Maybe I filled out Snork Maiden's return incorrectly?

UBS are Recommending 34% Allocation to US Fixed Income - Really?

UBS recommending 34% allocation to US fixed income. I guess this might makes sense if they mean treasury bills (90 day maturity). Don't pay any interest (but not negative like some places in Europe) but US Dollar might still appreciate. Longer term US bonds seem risky if interest rates will eventually go up. I wouldn't rule out though us being in a new long-term zero risk free rate equilibrium. I suppose that this allocation was intended for US clients?

My Mom's money managed now fully by UBS (but she is near their minimum entry level net worth, not what they think of as wealthy) is mostly in fixed income now due to the court order we got. Actually, it looks like that there are no US government bonds or corporate bonds in her account at all, though they are all US Dollar bonds. Things like World Bank, Province of Ontario, EBRD, African Development Bank, Statoil, Shell, Swedish Export Credit Corp etc.

Snorkmaiden's taxes: Part 2

Back in July I computed Snork Maiden's taxes for the 2014-15 financial year. I estimated she owed $169 in extra tax. When I actually submitted her tax return more recently I had refined that to $147. But in fact the letter from the ATO today says she owes $292. Why? There is a $145 "Excess private health fund reduction or refund (rebate reduced) item" on the notice of assessment. I guess our family income turned out to be too high and we won't get as large a tax rebate on private health insurance?

Moomin Valley Report October 2015

This month stock markets rebounded. The ASX 200 rose 4.37%, the MSCI World Index rose 7.87%, and the S&P 500 rose 8.44%. The Australian Dollar rose for a change from $US0.702 to $US0.7133. We gained 5.3% in Australian Dollar terms and 7.00% in US Dollar terms. So we outperformed the Australian market and underperformed the international market again. The only asset class that lost money was commodities. Private equity gained 12.86%! The top individual performer was the CFS Geared Share Fund gaining $23k followed by our two employer superannuation funds. The two private equity funds IPE.AX, OCP.AX, were next. IPE announced a share buyback. OCP sold part of one of its investments for the carrying value. It is still trading a lot below the stated book value though.

Net worth rose $A69k including housing equity ($US65k) to $1.490 million ($US1.063 million). The monthly accounts (in AUD) follow:

Spending was a bit high. We spent $7.4k not including mortgage payments and $6.9k without business expenses. The garden redesign got started. Most of this I will treat as spending but a new additional fence and gate etc. I will treat as investment. There was just a $500 deposit for that this month. That increases the "transfer to housing".

We saved $2.4k on the current account, $3.2k in retirement accounts, and $1.9k in housing equity. We paid $1,757 in mortgage interest, saving $431 in interest due to cash in our offset account.

Update on House Value

Another house in our development recently sold at auction. The price has just gone online. It sold for $A850k. The original sale price when new was $A735k. Our house originally sold for $A650k. Using the same percentage increase our house would be worth $A752k. We paid $A740k. But I have been valuing it at $A785k based on the valuation we got prior to buying. Not sure if I should lower the carrying value to $A750k?

Moom's Taxes 2014-15 Edition

I have now completed my tax return. Looks like I need to pay $590 in extra tax. My salary is flat on last year but my taxable income is up by 5%. Gross cash income is before tax income ignoring franking and other tax credits and adding in net undiscounted capital gains (not deleting losses from previous years). Dividends, franking credits, and foreign source income are all up steeply, but so are most forms of deductions. As a result tax is only up 4%. But because tax withholding is only up 1% this year I owe tax, whereas last year I got a refund.

Previous years:

2013-14
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
2009-10
2008-9
2007-8

Moominvalley September 2015 Report

A volatile month, but in the end not as bad as last month. The ASX 200 fell 2.96%, the MSCI World Index fell 3.51%, and the S&P 500 fell 2.47%. The Australian Dollar fell more slowly from $US0.71 to $US0.702. We lost 1.7% in Australian Dollar terms and 2.81% in US Dollar terms. So this time we outperformed both the international and Australian markets. US stocks were our worst performing asset class and commodities the best with private equity and hedge funds also having positive returns. Winton Global Alpha Fund was the best individual performer in dollar terms, with good returns from Cadence Capital, Ocean Capital Partners, CFS Developing Companies, and Medibank. Platinum Capital, CFS Developing Companies, TIAA Real Estate,  and Cadence are all at all time highs in terms of profits.

Net worth fell $A9k including housing equity ($US18k) to $1.457 million ($US1.023 million). The monthly accounts (in AUD) follow:

Salary and retirement contributions were fairly normal. We spent $5.3k not including mortgage payments and $4.7k without business expenses. Again, a relatively low monthly spend. And that includes spending $929 on health insurance for Snork Maiden's mother who will be visiting us... Soon there will be new expenses including relandscaping our garden and lots of baby expenses...

So, we also saved quite a lot: $5.9k on the current account and $3.2k in retirement accounts, and $1.3k in housing equity. We paid $1,845 in mortgage interest, saving $412 in interest due to cash in our offset account.

Moominvalley Report August 2015

My main reaction when doing the accounts this month was: "Could have been worse!" Markets were down strongly, especially in Australia. The ASX 200 fell 7.79%, the MSCI World Index fell 6.81%, and the S&P 500 fell 6.03%. The Australian Dollar continued to fall from $US0.7331 to $US0.71. We lost 5.2% in Australian Dollar terms but 8.19% in US Dollar terms. So yet again we underperformed the international markets but outperformed the Australian market. All asset classes fell but the fall in small cap Australian shares was small and the CFS Developing Companies fund rose. Also at record high profits for us are Platinum Capital and TIAA Real Estate.

Net worth fell $A53k including housing equity ($US73k) to $1.465 million ($US1.041 million). The monthly accounts (in AUD) follow:


Salary and retirement contributions were fairly normal. We spent $5.4k not including mortgage payments. This is now a relatively low monthly spend. So, we also saved quite a lot: $5.3k on the current account and $3.2k in retirement accounts, and $1.3k in housing equity. We paid $1,868 in mortgage interest, saving $391 in interest due to cash in our offset account.

Becoming Moominpapa

I'm in the process of metamorphosing into Moominpapa and Snork Maiden into Moominmama. If you were wondering what all the large medical expenses over the last year were that was IVF. We've now done a bunch of ultrasounds and genetic tests and everything seems to be OK and healthy with the developing baby and looks like it will be a baby Moomin and not a Snork Maiden. This is what things will hopefully look like here early next year:

Moominvalley July 2015 Report

A milestone this month as we went over $A 1.5 million net worth for the first time. $1.518 million to be precise ($US1.13 million).

Markets were up, especially in Australia. The ASX 200 rose 4.4%, the MSCI World Index rose 0.9%, and the S&P 500 rose 2.1%. The Australian Dollar fell steeply from $US0.7703 to $US0.7331. We gained 5.8% in Australian Dollar terms but only 0.7% in US Dollar terms. So we again underperformed the international markets but outperformed the Australian market. All asset classes rose except private equity. Large cap Australian shares did best. There was a total $71.5k investment gain.

Net worth rose $A85k including housing equity but only $US9k. The monthly accounts (in AUD) follow:

This was a three paycheck month and so salaries and refunds came to $21.9k. Retirement contributions were also higher than normal at $4.9k. We spent $5.8k not including mortgage payments and $5.1k not including business expenses. This is now a relatively low monthly spend. So, we also saved a lot compared to recent months - $11k on the current account and $2.9k in housing equity. We paid $1,842 in mortgage interest, saving $373 in interest due to cash in our offset account. Transfer to housing adds that nominal saving, which we count as an investment return, to the actual mortgage payment to balance the accounts.

Snork Maiden's Taxes 2014-15 Edition

I've done the calculations for Snork Maiden's tax return for this tax year. The tax year runs from 1st July to 30th June in Australia. The figures ignore employer and employee contributions to superannuation (retirement account) which amount to a lot of extra income. Everything is in Australian Dollars of course.


Looks like she needs to pay extra tax :( Compared to last year the Medicare Levy has increased by 0.5%, which means an extra $450 of tax before anything else So, despite income being up only by 3% taxes are up by 5%. Salary is unchanged because the current Enterprise Agreement has expired and the union hasn't agreed a new deal with the employer. Investment income is up as are tax credits derived from investment income (by more than 50% in the latter case). Deductions are steeply down because there was no unreimbursed work related travel this year. Gifts and donations are up 1100%. Snork Maiden started donating $40 per month to Save the Children a month before the end of the last tax year.

The average tax rate on taxable income is 24.94%. Gross income before deductions and tax credits is not a lot higher than taxable income and so the tax rate on "gross cash income" is only slightly lower. The difference will be much bigger on my own income.

Here are the reports on Snork Maiden's taxes for all previous years:

2013-14
2012-13
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
2009-10
2008-9
2007-8

Mid-Year Update

We are tracking close to the more optimistic projection I made at the beginning of the year. The adjusted optimistic forecast from here is $A1.639 million by the end of the year. So far the Australian stock market hasn't performed that well but the Australian Dollar fell more than forecast and so those two factors balance out. $US1.148 million is the adjusted optimistic forecast in US Dollars. Only down $US50k from the forecast at the beginning of the year.

At the weekend some friends helped us put up some pictures on the walls in the house. We have 8 pictures of African animals that Snork Maiden took * all lined up above the staircase well now. Getting them lined up straight was the issue that needed help. I'm going to call this part of the house "The African Gallery" now :)

* Seems like I never mentioned the African safari on this blog. Was in 2013.

June 2015 Monthly Accounts

These are the preliminary accounts for June. The main thing that might change are tax credits, which are estimated at the moment. Markets were down, especially in Australia, and as a result investment income was a negative $63k (Australian Dollars) and as a result net worth declined $58k. Salaries came to $13.8k which is what they are in a two payday month with no reimbursements. Retirement contributions were also the normal $3.2k. We spent $11.3k not including mortgage payments and $7.7k not including business expenses. But due to the business expenses and mortgage payments there was negative saving on the current account, offset by positive saving on the retirement and housing accounts. Tax credits, mainly associated with the end of financial year managed fund distributions are estimated as $2,800. These reduce tax payable on a 1:1 basis. We paid $1945 in mortgage interest, saving $350 in interest due to cash in our offset account. Transfer to housing adds that nominal saving, which we count as an investment return, to the actual mortgage payment to balance the accounts.

Update (from England)

It is always a slow process to get the accounts together at the end of June as it is the end of the financial year in Australia and data on tax credits etc. won't be available till mid-July. I estimate that we lost more than $A40k in net worth for the month and got -4.0% rate of return in AUD terms. The ASX 200 index was down 5.3% though. OTOH the MSCI lost 2.31% and the S&P 500 1.94%. Our estimated loss in US Dollar terms was 3.5%. So, again, we beat the Australian index but lagged the international stock market indices.

It looks like we again had high spending - $A7.6k not including large business expenses. And that doesn't include our mortgage repayments. We did buy a washing machine and dryer. That cost $A3030 in total. So the rest of our spending came to $4.6k. $943 was property tax ($313 per quarter) and body corporate fee ($630 per quarter). Health insurance is $308 (per month) etc.

I'm in England on business. Working on putting together an international consortium to bid for research funding. Round trip of 6 days away. I was in the Middle East for 2 weeks in late May early June - going to conferences and visiting family. My doctor was surprised when I said I was visiting family in the Middle East :) This second trip only came up while I was in Turkey (one of the three countries I was in). Yesterday was the hottest day of the year here in England. In London it hit almost 37C. A bit cooler where I was. Though we were meeting in a room which had air conditioning installed, the air conditioning was broken. So, it was hot work. We had lunch yesterday in the hall in this picture. Our meeting on Tuesday was in the building on the right...

Moomnvalley May 2015 Report

The Australian Dollar declined from 78.66 US cents to 76.59 US cents. Stock markets were flat to positive. The MSCI World Index fell 0.05%, the S&P 500 rose 1.29%, and the ASX200 rose 0.40%. In Australian Dollar terms we ganed 1.69% and in US Dollar terms we lost 1.00%. So we underperformed the international markets but outperformed the Australian market again. All asset classes rose with private equity doing best.

Net worth rose $27k to $1.294 million not counting housing equity and fell $US6k to $US0.992 million. Including housing equity, net worth rose $28k to $1.495 million - a new high ($US1.145 million). The monthly accounts (in AUD) follow:

Current non-investment income (salary etc.) was $20.2k due to business and medical expense refunds and retirement contributions were $3.2k.  Total investment returns were $21.2k. Spending on the current account was $13.3k. Removing a business expenditure and the cleaning of our old apartment it was $12.1k. We bought a new bed and again had major medical expenses. However, this number doesn't include mortgage interest, which was $2.1k of actual spending, for a total monthly spend of $14.2k (see last column core expenditure). If we hadn't reduced our mortgage interest using our offset account we would have paid $2.5k in mortgage interest. This gap will continue to get bigger. This month we raised cash as a share of gross assets to 5.67% from 5.28% in April.

We (notionally - the actual repayment was smaller by the amount of the gap in mortgage interest...) repaid $3.5k of the mortgage resulting in net saving on the housing account of $1,046. So, we saved a total of $7.6k.

Moominvalley April 2015 Report

The Australian Dollar rose for a change from 76.24 US cents to 78.66 US cents, which means that this month we did better in US Dollar terms than in Australian Dollar terms. World stock market indices gained but the Australian market fell. The MSCI World Index rose 2.95%, the S&P 500 0.96%, and the ASX200 fell 1.70%. In Australian Dollar terms we lost 1.10% and in US Dollar terms we gained 2.04%. So we underperformed the international markets but outperformed the Australian market (again).

Commodities did very poorly this month - down 3.67%. Partly because of dividend timing private equity was the best performer in our portfolio.

Net worth fell $9k to $1.269 million not counting housing equity and rose $US24k to $US0.998 million. Including housing equity net worth fell $8k to $1.466 million ($US1.153 million). The monthly accounts (in AUD) follow:

Current non-investment income (salary etc.) was $13.7k and retirement contributions were $3.2k.  Total investment returns were -$14.0k. Spending on the current account fell to $8.6k. Removing some business expenditures that will be refunded it was $4.2k. However, this number doesn't include mortgage interest, which was $2.3k of actual spending, for a total monthly spend of $6.5k (see last column core expenditure). I expect that this will be the typical monthly expenditure when we don't make any large extra expenses... If we hadn't reduced our mortgage interest using our offset account we would have paid $2.4k in mortgage interest. This gap will get much bigger next month. I am recording the saved mortgage interest as part of our investment income. But as this isn't actual cash we receive it has to be offset somewhere else in the accounts. We do this by recording housing expenditure - i.e. mostly mortgage interest - to include the saved interest. Core housing expenditure is what we actually spent on mortgage interest.

We repaid $3.3k of the mortgage resulting in net saving on the housing account of $841. So, we saved a total of $5.9k.

Snapshot at an Inflection Point

Now the house purchase is complete * and we are starting a new financial restructuring plan I thought of drawing up a balance sheet as a snapshot of this "inflection point". It's in a different format to anything I've done before as it is based on the various accounts things are in and how flexible they are rather than asset classes and beta and other investment theory things I've considered in the past. This is all in Australian Dollars:


Long term assets are retirement accounts, checking, saving, cash, and credit cards are short term and everything else is medium term as it can be restructured/sold/closed etc. but probably won't be done fast. So, the goal now is to increase the size of the offset account until it is the size of the mortgage. In the meantime adding a bit to some investments  - we still have $2000 of automatic savings a month outside of retirement accounts for example - and increasing the margin loan. Then one day in a few years there will be a flip - pay off most of the mortgage, redraw the mortgage, then pay-off the margin loan and make investments.

BTW, if you're wondering why we have a thousand dollars in Australian Dollars cash, a big chunk of that is a travel money card.

 * As you can see from the balance sheet we still didn't get the deposit on our apartment back, so everything is not yet settled.

Redrawing Mortgage for Investment Purposes

Following up finally on comments that bigchrisb made about paying off the mortgage faster and then redrawing the money to investment in shares/refinance margin loans. This appears to be the ATO ruling on this. So, there is no problem to do this, but I have been thinking about the practicalities. It seems to me that if you pay off say $50k of the mortgage and then withdraw the money for investment, then the next $50k you pay off just repays the redraw and so your tax deductible loan gets no bigger. So, it only makes sense then to do the redraw after paying off as much of the mortgage as you want in the long term before doing the investment loan. So, in the meantime I think we will continue to accumulate money in the offset account, which gives more flexibility. If you are wondering why we should pile up cash while having a margin loan, actually the effective untaxed interest on the offset account is higher than the after tax rate on the margin loan. So, it makes sense to borrow more on the margin loan while piling money up in the offset. I think I will stop automatic re-investments of distributions and dividends where there is no discount for re-investment to speed the process a little. The only one I think is with my Colonial First State funds. When we are nearer an amount I think is reasonable then it would make sense to actually sell investments and add that money to the pile. But that should be a final step I think. I do have a lot of tax losses so that the first $60k of capital gains is tax free. This will be a project over several years. Of course, maybe in the end we would take the cash pile and use it as a downpayment on an investment property instead :) So, lots of things are possible.

P.S.
For U.S. readers who might wonder about why go through this complicated plan.... in Australia, mortgage interest is not tax deductible for owner occupiers. But investment interest is, even if it exceeds the income on the investment so that you make a net loss. The latter is known as "negative gearing".

P.P.S.
From March on, I'll include the implicit saved mortgage interest as part of investment return. That means that it also needs to be included in the "transfer from current account to housing" and included in housing expenses in the account in order to balance all the books. I'll also include the "core housing expenditure" in the accounts which will be the actual interest paid to the bank.

Moominvalley Monthly Report March 2015

The Australian Dollar resumed its fall from 78.09 US cents to 76.24 US cents. World stock markets fell. The MSCI World Index fell 1.49%, the S&P 500 1.58%, and the ASX200 only 0.06%. In Australian Dollar terms we gained 0.50% and in US Dollar terms lost 1.88%. So we underperformed both the international markets but outperformed the Australian market. Actually because some stocks went ex-dividend this month but pay the dividend next month we did a bit better than this and outperformed all markets. But I can't be bothered to do the fussy accounting needed to account for dividends not yet paid.

Commodities and hedge funds were the best performing asset classes in our portfolio with Platinum Capital the best individual fund and Winton Global Alpha Fund second in dollar terms. Medibank Private was the worst individual performer losing $1690 in total.

However net worth rose $5k to $1.277 million not counting housing equity and fell $US20k to $US0.973 million. Including housing equity net worth rose $6k to $1.473 million ($US1.123 million). The monthly accounts (in AUD) follow:


Current non-investment income (salary etc.) was $13.6k and retirement contributions were $3.2k.  Total investment returns were $6.4k. Spending on the current account remained very elevated at $13.9k, which house painting and moving among other expenditures. Taking out the cost of moving (but not painting) and some business expenses that should be refunded it was a bit lower at $11.8k. The $2189 spending in the housing account is mortgage interest, while the $3,179 is our mortgage payments - so we paid back net $990 of our loan.

How Much Could We Save by Renting Our House out for a Year?

Bigchrisb commented on my recent post that we could save money by renting our new house out rather than going to live in it immediately. This is because the stamp duty paid to buy new properties is in this territory immediately tax deductible for investors. In Australia no costs of owner occupiers are tax deductible. So, I've calculated roughly what I think the financial gain from renting our house out for a year would be and come up with $18k:

The main deductions are the stamp duty, mortgage interest and depreciation. The first two we are going to pay ourselves anyway and so aren't actually additional costs while the latter is probably not a real cost, or we are going to suffer it anyway. Next there are property management fees, which might help in getting a tenant fast etc. and the difference between land tax on investors and rates on owner occupiers. There are real extra costs.

Assuming we could rent the house for one year at $650 a week we would earn $33800 in rent. So, the net income is -$34k and the tax saved at 40% is $13.5k. On the other hand we make $33.8k we would otherwise not have, but pay $25.8k in rent on our existing apartment that we would not have to pay if we lived in the new house as well as $3.7k in extra actual costs. So the net financial gain is $17.8k.

Let me know if you think I got something major wrong.

So, if we don't do this, economists would say that our revealed preference shows that the utility of living in our new house a year earlier and avoiding dealing with the hassles of being a landlord are worth at least $17.8k to us. For me, $17.8k is about 1.2% of net worth and so it's not enough to make a difference. It's not a lot more than our after tax salaries for one month. I asked Snork Maiden how big the number would have to be before she would be willing to do it and she said $50k. I know that if it was $100k I probably would do it :)

Housing Equity and Other Savings

I've updated my "savings components" chart to include housing equity. You can see the payment from current savings (blue) to the downpayment on the house (red). Also notable is that retirement profits (green) are approaching retirement contributions (pink). Non-retirement savings have performed much worse and profits (brown line) are nowhere near the money saved from salary etc (blue line). However, they are at least above the pre-GFC peak now.

Moominvalley Monthly Report: February 2015

The Australian Dollar was finally stable this month rising half a cent to 78.09 US cents. World stock markets rose strongly. The MSCI World Index rose 5.61%, the S&P 500 5.75%, and the ASX200 6.89%. In Australian Dollar terms we gained 4.92% and in US Dollar terms gained 5.57%. So we underperformed both the Australian and international markets but the latter only slightly. Still in absolute dollar terms this month had the highest investment income on record at $65k ($US57k), 55% more than any previous month.

All asset classes in our portfolio apart from hedge funds and private equity gained with small cap Australian stocks being the best performer (7.59%). Colonial First State Geared Share Fund gained the most dollars ($37.7k) followed by the Unisuper ($6.5k) and PSSAP ($3.9k) superannuation funds. I can't be bothered to work out rates of return for individual funds :)

However net worth fell $48k to $1.272 million not counting housing equity and fell $US31k to $US0.994 million. This was a result of the $111k second installment of our house downpayment. Including housing equity net worth rose to $1.468 million ($US1.147 million). The monthly accounts (in AUD) follow:




Current non-investment income (salary etc.) was $14.3k and retirement contributions were $3.3k.  Total investment returns of $108k also include the value of the gain in our house's value. As our house was valued at $785k and we only paid $740k I have credited a total gain of $45k, most of it occurring this month.

Spending on the current account was $11.9k, which include $2.8k in settlement costs and spending on our trip to New Zealand. We also paid car registration this month, which is an $1100 cost... The $693 spending in the housing account is additional costs, which the lender added to our mortgage loan. We have so far made two mortgage payments of $1589 each and so the total transfer to housing was $114k... So far there have been no interest payments on the mortgage. They would come under housing spending when we do make them. The house is currently being painted and we are booking the mover, arranging insurance etc.

Guardianship

My mother suffers from dementia. Up till recently my brother had power of attorney to make financial decisions for her, but financial providers now wanted him to have guardianship. So he is now the official guardian but the guardianship office where he and my mother live says that her investment portfolio is too risky. They want us to not have more than 20% in equities, get rid of all alternative investments and have the rest in cash and AAA bonds. It is not as if my brother and I decided on the current allocation. It's not a lot different to how it was when my mother could make her own decisions. The problem is that cash earns almost nothing anywhere and short term bonds less than inflation. Long-term bonds have the risk that their value will fall when one day central banks raise interest rates again.

We have tried to resist this and the guardianship office people met with my brother and his lawyer but the only concession they made was to give us a year to sort it out. In the meantime we also discovered (I read about this in an article in the New York Times) that the inheritance tax free threshold in the US for foreign estates was only $60k. That means that around 40% of the money in the US based separately managed accounts in my mother's name would be taxed away after she died - the accounts had minimal if any profit - so it would be taxing savings rather than earnings. So, we closed those accounts avoiding US inheritance tax and reducing the equity share of the portfolio to about 20%. Anyway, this is a warning to get good arrangements in place while you are still capable of making your own decisions rather than having a court imposed solution.

I need to think also about how to avoid US inheritance tax. I only have about $60k of direct US investments in stocks and mutual funds. But I also have another $70k in a 403b retirement account (TIAA-CREF). So, if I suddenly died there would be about $30k in inheritance tax that Snork Maiden would have to pay (no spouse allowance for foreigners...).  There are various options including trying to roll my 403b into an Australian super fund now or setting up an Australian self-managed super fund (SMSF) and transferring the US individual investments into it. My thinking is that this would then be like having units in an Australia based managed fund. Would need to get proper advice on that first. Of course, it's not worth setting up an SMSF for just USD 60k in investments - that would be just one of the holdings of the SMSF. So, watch out if you have individual stocks in the US and aren't a US citizen.

GMOM vs. GTAA

A few months ago Cambria Investment Management stopped advising the GTAA ETF and launched their own in house GMOM ETF to implement their their global tactical asset allocation strategy. How well has the new ETF performed? So far, so good:

 

GMOM has risen by about 2% since being launched and GTAA has fallen by about 1%. GTAA had had a fairly disappointing performance up till then. I was an investor in GTAA and switched to GMOM (I have 1000 shares). So, that was a good move so far.

ASX at Post-GFC High

Broke out of the trading range of the last year and a half. I had been thinking to rebalance away from large cap Australian stocks at the beginning of the week as US indices were looking like they could be topping out. But various evidence including the behaviour of the DAX index in Germany - which had recently broken out - made me eventually not do it.

Moominvalley Monthly Report: January 2015

The Australian Dollar fell by another 4.1 US cents this month to 77.61 US cents. The MSCI World Index fell 1.54% and the S&P 500 3.00%, but the ASX200 rose 3.28%. In Australian Dollar terms we gained 2.99% and in US Dollar terms lost 2.18%. So we underperformed both the Australian and international markets. All asset classes in our portfolio apart from small cap Australian stocks gained with commodities being the best performer. Colonial First State Geared Share Fund gained the most dollars ($14.5k) followed by the PSSAP ($5.6k) and Unisuper ($2.8k) superannuation funds and then the Winton Global Alpha fund ($2k). I can't be bothered to work out rates of return for individual funds :)

But net worth fell $A13k to $1.321 million not counting housing equity and fell $US65k to $US1.025 million. Including housing equity net worth rose to $A1.360 million but still fell in US Dollars to $1.055 million. The monthly accounts (in AUD) follow:


This month's accounts get more complex as we introduce the changes in housing equity and their implications for current and retirement accounts. And this is the much simplified approach. I decided to give up on a full economic accounting.

Current non-investment income (salary etc.) was $16.5k and retirement contributions were $3.2k.  Investment returns were $A42k in total.

Spending was at a record high of $32.5k because we paid $A27.8k in stamp duty tax to the government, which I decided to count as consumption spending. Income tax us treated as negative income in my accounting system but GST is an expenditure. So, logically stamp duty should be too.  Without that we only spent $A4.7k, which is low.

Then there was a $A37k transfer to the housing acccounting representing our 5% deposit with the seller's agent. This means we dissaved $53k from current non-investment income but made $37k in housing saving for a net dissaving (including retirement accounts) of $A13k. Next month will have the second and much larger transfer to housing of the 15% second installment in the downpayment of $A111k.

I just went to do a final inspection on the house. Settlement should be tomorrow.

Continuing to Recover from the Financial Crisis

This month profits on non-retirement accounts finally exceed the previous peak in June 2007 (in AUD terms at least). Of course, adjusted for inflation that is still a big loss, hence the title of this post. In retirement accounts the pre-crisis peak was $A108k in August 2007. This was exceeded for the first time in February 2013 and we now stand at over a quarter million dollars in cumulative profit this month. The retirement account numbers are post-tax. Cumulative profits on non-retirement accounts are only just over $A80k.

This is What Buying a House Looks LIke

Each time we tried to buy a house at auction we moved the necessary deposit money into our checking account from this account. The three attempts should be pretty clear on the chart - one in early 2013 and two in late 2014. Then finally we are actually buying a house, but not at auction. You can see the initial 10% deposit money coming out of the account (though the seller actually agreed to 5%) and then the rest of the 20% downpayment and the stamp duty tax - we have to pay a 3.7% tax to the state government to buy a house... The latter really slows people down from buying and selling houses and encourages people to extend, improve, or knock down and rebuild their existing house.

Signed Mortgage

Today we signed all the mortgage documentation at the bank to borrow $A592k....

Paid Deposit

I delivered the 5% deposit check for the house to the lawyer this morning and she expects the deal will be locked in today or Monday. Then we sign the mortgage loan documents at the bank and the countdown to "settlement" starts. I had been planning to do a proper economic accounting for the house, but it is getting very complicated and I think I might take a really simple option instead. This would treat principal payments like today's deposit and the capital component of mortgage payments as saving and everything else as just consumption spending. And I won't try to compute a rate of return for this asset. Any gain in value above the amount saved into the asset will be a gain in net worth but won't be included in reports on our investment performance.

Super Funds Make 7.5% in 2014

Says this article in the Australian. We made 12.5% on our retirement accounts this year in Australian Dollar terms. Overall return on all assets was 9.2% against a 4.01% gain in the ASX 200. Diversification away from Australian shares helped this year. OTOH the MSCI gained 4.71% in USD terms, while we lost 0.11% in USD terms overall.

Moomin Valley Annual Report 2014

The accounts for this annual report follow the same format as those in my monthly reports. Here are the accounts in Australian Dollars:

I've also added the change from last year. Salary and similar non-investment income was up 9% and spending was up 45% but investment income, saving, and, therefore, change in net worth are all down on last year. Because the US Dollar rose very strongly this year, the picture is worse in USD terms:

Investment income was negative because foreign exchange losses totalled $US93k, while core investment income was $87k.

Spending was by far at a record level. I don't expect this to be a permanent high level in the future, but definitely the trend is up.

2014 Outcome and 2015 Forecast

Last year I forecast that net worth would optimistically reach $A1.4 million and pessimistically hit $A1 million by the end of 2014. The US Dollar range was $US1.19 million to $US0.75 million. The result for this year turned out at $A1.33 million (USD 1.09 million). The Australian stockmarket didn't perform that well, the Australian Dollar fell to 81 US Cents and we spent a record amount. Therefore, the result was below the most optimistic projection.

So, now is time to forecast for 2015. Buying a house complicates things  even more. The optimistic projection is $A1.65 million or USD 1.33 million assuming the Australian Dollar only declines to 80 US Cents. The most pessimistic scenario is that the Australian Dollar falls to 70 US Cents, the stock market falls by 20%, and the value of our house falls to $A700k. In that case, we would have $A1.15 million or USD 800k.

Moominvalley Monthly Report: December 2014

The Australian Dollar fell by another 3.5 US cents this month 81.71 US cents. The MSCI World Index fell 1.89% and the S&P 500 0.25%, but the ASX200 rose 0.51%. In Australian Dollar terms we gained 2.63% and in US Dollar terms lost 1.67%. So this was a rare month where we outperformed both the Australian and international markets. All asset classes in our portfolio apart from hedge funds gained with private equity doing best. Medibank Private was again a good performer.

As a result, net worth rose $A44k to $1.330 million (new high) and fell $US9k to $US1.087 million. The monthly accounts (in AUD) follow:


Current non-investment income (salary etc.) was very high at $27.5k as were retirement contributions at $4.9k. This was a three paycheck month. Also we got some big medical and work-related reimbursements. Spending was extremely high at $19.5k due to medical related expenses. Still, that means that we still managed to save $8.0k from current non-investment income.

I'll do an annual report next.