Another Very Local Auction

The house 2 doors away from us was auctioned today. It sold for $801,000 (AUD). Initially it passed in at $785,000 after one bid at that level after the auctioneer made a bid at $780k but then there was a negotiation with the highest bidder. The house plan is identical to ours. The main difference is that it is wedged between two other houses - side windows are frosted glass, while our house has open land or the street on all but one side. We have a much better view as a result. Our backyard is a bit less deep and our front yard longer. The presentation of this house is better than the current state of our house. I reckon we might need more than $10k to bring it up to standard. The original selling price was for some reason $10k more than our house. When I add this new sale into my model of the value of our house based on sales in this development since we bought, it only increases the carrying value of our house by $2,000 to $777k. I think this is a good conservative value for our house.

Asset Allocation Update

As I mentioned in the monthly report we did a big asset reallocation recently.You can see the step down in the allocation to large cap Australian shares to about 35% in the graph above (this is gross assets rather than net worth). We increased the allocation to all other asset classes. Also on the graph you can see various phases in our recent financial history - the financial crisis and the recovery from it; saving up the cash for a house downpayment; buying the house; saving up cash in our offset account to pay off the mortgage. This month our mortgage interest is down to $1,217. In the first month after we moved in it was $2,189.... The plan when we pay off the mortgage is to redraw it for reinvestment making the interest tax deductible.

I didn't include our house in the graph. If I did, it would be about 25% of gross assets.

Local Auction

There was an auction today of another free-standing house in our complex. Smaller and without a view but it is at the end of the row, so not as hemmed in by neighbors as many of the houses are here. This time there was bidding interest. The house sold at $A600k with three active bidders. The original price in 2008 was $A459k. That is a 30% uplift. Our house cost $A650k in 2008 and we bought for $A740k at the end of 2014, a 13% uplift. Of freestanding houses in the complex bought since the beginning of 2014, which have sensible prices in the database (i.e. not zero or something else low), we paid the lowest uplift. However, the uplift is very strongly negatively correlated with the original sale price. Based on a regression of uplift on original price for all houses sold excluding ours in that period, the uplift on ours should have been 20%. Date of sale is not statistically significant. So, I'll rerate the carrying value of our house up to $A780k.

Update on House Value

Another house in our development recently sold at auction. The price has just gone online. It sold for $A850k. The original sale price when new was $A735k. Our house originally sold for $A650k. Using the same percentage increase our house would be worth $A752k. We paid $A740k. But I have been valuing it at $A785k based on the valuation we got prior to buying. Not sure if I should lower the carrying value to $A750k?

Snapshot at an Inflection Point

Now the house purchase is complete * and we are starting a new financial restructuring plan I thought of drawing up a balance sheet as a snapshot of this "inflection point". It's in a different format to anything I've done before as it is based on the various accounts things are in and how flexible they are rather than asset classes and beta and other investment theory things I've considered in the past. This is all in Australian Dollars:


Long term assets are retirement accounts, checking, saving, cash, and credit cards are short term and everything else is medium term as it can be restructured/sold/closed etc. but probably won't be done fast. So, the goal now is to increase the size of the offset account until it is the size of the mortgage. In the meantime adding a bit to some investments  - we still have $2000 of automatic savings a month outside of retirement accounts for example - and increasing the margin loan. Then one day in a few years there will be a flip - pay off most of the mortgage, redraw the mortgage, then pay-off the margin loan and make investments.

BTW, if you're wondering why we have a thousand dollars in Australian Dollars cash, a big chunk of that is a travel money card.

 * As you can see from the balance sheet we still didn't get the deposit on our apartment back, so everything is not yet settled.

Redrawing Mortgage for Investment Purposes

Following up finally on comments that bigchrisb made about paying off the mortgage faster and then redrawing the money to investment in shares/refinance margin loans. This appears to be the ATO ruling on this. So, there is no problem to do this, but I have been thinking about the practicalities. It seems to me that if you pay off say $50k of the mortgage and then withdraw the money for investment, then the next $50k you pay off just repays the redraw and so your tax deductible loan gets no bigger. So, it only makes sense then to do the redraw after paying off as much of the mortgage as you want in the long term before doing the investment loan. So, in the meantime I think we will continue to accumulate money in the offset account, which gives more flexibility. If you are wondering why we should pile up cash while having a margin loan, actually the effective untaxed interest on the offset account is higher than the after tax rate on the margin loan. So, it makes sense to borrow more on the margin loan while piling money up in the offset. I think I will stop automatic re-investments of distributions and dividends where there is no discount for re-investment to speed the process a little. The only one I think is with my Colonial First State funds. When we are nearer an amount I think is reasonable then it would make sense to actually sell investments and add that money to the pile. But that should be a final step I think. I do have a lot of tax losses so that the first $60k of capital gains is tax free. This will be a project over several years. Of course, maybe in the end we would take the cash pile and use it as a downpayment on an investment property instead :) So, lots of things are possible.

P.S.
For U.S. readers who might wonder about why go through this complicated plan.... in Australia, mortgage interest is not tax deductible for owner occupiers. But investment interest is, even if it exceeds the income on the investment so that you make a net loss. The latter is known as "negative gearing".

P.P.S.
From March on, I'll include the implicit saved mortgage interest as part of investment return. That means that it also needs to be included in the "transfer from current account to housing" and included in housing expenses in the account in order to balance all the books. I'll also include the "core housing expenditure" in the accounts which will be the actual interest paid to the bank.

How Much Could We Save by Renting Our House out for a Year?

Bigchrisb commented on my recent post that we could save money by renting our new house out rather than going to live in it immediately. This is because the stamp duty paid to buy new properties is in this territory immediately tax deductible for investors. In Australia no costs of owner occupiers are tax deductible. So, I've calculated roughly what I think the financial gain from renting our house out for a year would be and come up with $18k:

The main deductions are the stamp duty, mortgage interest and depreciation. The first two we are going to pay ourselves anyway and so aren't actually additional costs while the latter is probably not a real cost, or we are going to suffer it anyway. Next there are property management fees, which might help in getting a tenant fast etc. and the difference between land tax on investors and rates on owner occupiers. There are real extra costs.

Assuming we could rent the house for one year at $650 a week we would earn $33800 in rent. So, the net income is -$34k and the tax saved at 40% is $13.5k. On the other hand we make $33.8k we would otherwise not have, but pay $25.8k in rent on our existing apartment that we would not have to pay if we lived in the new house as well as $3.7k in extra actual costs. So the net financial gain is $17.8k.

Let me know if you think I got something major wrong.

So, if we don't do this, economists would say that our revealed preference shows that the utility of living in our new house a year earlier and avoiding dealing with the hassles of being a landlord are worth at least $17.8k to us. For me, $17.8k is about 1.2% of net worth and so it's not enough to make a difference. It's not a lot more than our after tax salaries for one month. I asked Snork Maiden how big the number would have to be before she would be willing to do it and she said $50k. I know that if it was $100k I probably would do it :)

Housing Equity and Other Savings

I've updated my "savings components" chart to include housing equity. You can see the payment from current savings (blue) to the downpayment on the house (red). Also notable is that retirement profits (green) are approaching retirement contributions (pink). Non-retirement savings have performed much worse and profits (brown line) are nowhere near the money saved from salary etc (blue line). However, they are at least above the pre-GFC peak now.

This is What Buying a House Looks LIke

Each time we tried to buy a house at auction we moved the necessary deposit money into our checking account from this account. The three attempts should be pretty clear on the chart - one in early 2013 and two in late 2014. Then finally we are actually buying a house, but not at auction. You can see the initial 10% deposit money coming out of the account (though the seller actually agreed to 5%) and then the rest of the 20% downpayment and the stamp duty tax - we have to pay a 3.7% tax to the state government to buy a house... The latter really slows people down from buying and selling houses and encourages people to extend, improve, or knock down and rebuild their existing house.

Signed Mortgage

Today we signed all the mortgage documentation at the bank to borrow $A592k....

Paid Deposit

I delivered the 5% deposit check for the house to the lawyer this morning and she expects the deal will be locked in today or Monday. Then we sign the mortgage loan documents at the bank and the countdown to "settlement" starts. I had been planning to do a proper economic accounting for the house, but it is getting very complicated and I think I might take a really simple option instead. This would treat principal payments like today's deposit and the capital component of mortgage payments as saving and everything else as just consumption spending. And I won't try to compute a rate of return for this asset. Any gain in value above the amount saved into the asset will be a gain in net worth but won't be included in reports on our investment performance.

Projected Net Worth in February 2015

If everything goes to plan this is roughly what our balance sheet would look like, using NetWorthIQ's format, by the end of February (in US Dollars):

Made an Offer on a House

After three years of looking for a house and participation in three auctions, I finally made an offer on a house, not through the auction process (This house was auctioned but didn't sell at auction). I think all our friends and family thought we would never buy... The price agreed on is $A740k ($US605k). It's part of a townhouse complex but is a freestanding house and has a "reserve" on two sides and a neigboring house on only one side. It has great views. It's a bit further from the city center than we would really like and less land area than we would like - only a very small garden area. but houses in this condition and size, with more land, nearer the center, and without intrusive electric power poles, which Snork Maiden doesn't like, are very expensive or maybe one a year comes along at a reasonable price range which we could bid on at an auction.

Now the legal/financial wheels begin to turn.

Didn't Buy

We participated at another auction today and again ended up not buying. Someone bid $850k to open the bidding but then dropped out after that. There were three serious bidders. Most of the time it was just me and a guy whose partner had told the agent at the first showing that if someone made a bid before the auction he should let her know. I went as high as $1,017,500. The other guy bid $1.02 million and then suddenly a third guy behind us jumped in with $1.025 million. The next bid was $1.03 million and then the third guy said $1.04 million and that was the final price. The valuation we got was $950k.

Ordered Another Valuation

I asked the bank to order a valuation on another house. This one is going to cost more than the previous one that we didn't end up buying. But there will be very little work needed to be done if we buy it, so we can afford to pay more. I think the house is a little on the large size, but Snork Maiden disagrees. It's in a different neighborhood a few kilometers further from the center (near this other one we bidded on last year). Despite finding that valuations aren't much use, I think this time we can use it as a basis for talking to the bank guy about raising the maximum amount we can borrow. I am now thinking to put 20% down (up from previously thinking 10%) after rerunning the numbers on a larger downpayment versus paying mortgage insurance, which you have to pay if you put down less than 10%. So, I am also ramping up the size of the Moominhouse buying fund. It's currently at $182k with a target of $250k (up from $150k).

P.S. 4pm

The valuation came in at $950k with a range of $920-$980k. We had guessed about $1 million. Anyway, so now we are going to discuss with the bank how much we can really borrow.

Auction Day

So today was the auction day for the house we were interested in buying. At this point we haven't bought it...

So we got a valuation that cost us $330 and they produced a value of $770k. But when we were meeting with the mortgage guy at the bank he said that the bank could do a valuation for $50 and if we go ahead with the purchase the fee will be waived as they do this as part of the loan approval process anyway. So we got that valuation too. The median of that appraisal was $800k with a range of $760k to $840k. So I went into the auction with an limit of around $860k in mind. The highest I got to bid was $850k and then the next bid was $865k. The auctioneer was not accepting smaller increments. As we were still below the reserve price I then decided not to push the price higher on the gamble that the owner wouldn't accept this higher bidder's offer and the house will return to market with a listed price. It turns out that the owner's reserve price was $970k but they are willing to go down to $950k but the other bidder would only go up to $870k. So, I expect the house will either be listed now at $950k or taken off the market and the owner will try again at the beginning of 2015 just before the current tenancy concludes.

Independent Valuers

So, we are thinking of getting a valuation on the house. The price of this service varies widely. These local guys charge $330. Herron Todd White - "the largest valuer in Australia" - charges $660. Is this a case where it makes sense to go with the cheaper service or is there some extra quality or service that is worth paying double for?

Gearing Up for Housebuying Again

So, this weekend we went to see several houses in different parts of the city. We are following up in more detail on the one in the picture. The location is convenient to public transport with a position on top of a hill looking out over trees to a mountain - you could almost be out in the bush, apart from the traffic noise at the back of the house. It is the most expensive block in this suburb though it has been subdivided in two in what is called here a dual occupancy. The remaining block is still just over 1000 square metres. The house looks best from the street side, as in the picture. Inside is another story and there may be some structural issues with foundations at the back. The house has been rented presumably to students at my university for the last 20 years. Current rent is $570 a week. But that is only one of the two apartments the property is divided into. The apartment is rented till early next year though the second apartment is unoccupied. I think the price has to be over $700k as the land value is at least $550k. Auction is at the end of the month.

I have a previous history with this house. Fifteen years ago my girlfriend lived there, though we weren't together very long and I didn't visit that many times as a result. It was strange to come back again now. Looks like they didn't do any renovation in all that time apart from redesigning the front garden.

Snork Maiden talked to a colleague to see if they can recommend a builder to assess the potential renovation. Turns out the people who live in the second house on the block are friends of her colleague whose children go to the same school as his children.

Houses, Shares, Taxes Again

OK, so now we are not renting a house. We looked at four. Two were acceptable. But now Snork Maiden's mom says that she won't visit Australia till we buy a house and so we'll stay put for the moment. There aren't a lot of interesting houses on the market at the moment at this time of year. I completed the four share purchases with shares in CAM.AX and IPE.AX. Enoughwealth sent me a useable copy of the Australian tax form. It combines all three regular tax forms (the main form, the supplementary form, and the business items form) into one and unlike other Australian tax forms it isn't very colorful and instead of having separate boxes for each letter or number it has freeform entry boxes - compare to the sample individual tax return. But all the items and labels are exactly the same. It's weird, but I don't see why not to use it.

Houses, Shares, Taxes...

After looking at another couple of houses at the weekend and not agreeing on which we preferred we have changed direction and are now looking to rent a house or townhouse as a midway step to buying a house. Snork Maiden's mom is probably coming to visit for a while (months) and though we previously reorganized this apartment to accommodate her and her now deceased husband we aren't prepared to do that this time. We are much better off now and so have other alternatives. One option would be to rent her a furnished apartment nearby, but she's not keen on that... So we have four houses lined up to look at in the next three days. Rents range from $A570 to $A650 per week compared to $A490 in our current apartment. One ($A650) is actually nearer to the city centre, the others a little further out. One house is almost identical to another we looked at to buy a few doors down. Snork Maiden didn't like the small garden or lack of trees in the (new) neighborhood. But if we're not buying permanently...

I also just put in four orders to buy shares in listed funds here in Australia. Two have already executed (OCP.AX and AOD.AX). My margin loan was down to only $A15k. But if we are not likely to buy a house very soon then I don't need the extra borrowing capacity. We are still keeping a huge amount of cash on hand. You never know when the ideal property would show up. If we rent a house though it would be a 12 month lease. You can get out of that but it could be costly. With high occupancy rates still, it shouldn't be too hard to find someone else to rent in these locations.

The financial year here in Australia ends 30th of June so we are again in the run-up to filing tax returns (deadline 31 October). I've done a preliminary assessment and both of us probably owe more tax. For me it is over $1,000. This is going to mean that I will need to pay quarterly taxes in future :( The reason it is so high is that as we still don't have private health insurance I need to pay 1% of my income as the Medicare surcharge. On top of that my interest earnings are more than $3k due to our house-buying cash stockpile. On Friday I'm meeting a health insurance salesperson (sorry, consultant) who is offering a lower corporate health insurance rate. So, hopefully in future I can avoid the quarterly tax payments. It's also an incentive to increasing the margin loan again. I tried to do Snork Maiden's taxes using the ATO's E-Tax software now that they have a Mac version. It was a frustrating experience and I gave up. Crazily, you can't download a pdf of the main tax form! Only a sample copy. You have to get a hardcopy from the ATO in the mail or from their "shopfront". What I would really like is a web-based tax form that I can just fill numbers into without dealing with all the silly questions in E-Tax, or a typable pdf. I am going to get a hardcopy and again submit paper tax returns until they get the system more user friendly.