Tuesday, January 05, 2016

2015 Outcome and 2016 Forecast

Last year I forecast that net worth would optimistically reach $A1.65 million and pessimistically fall to $A1.15 million by the end of 2015. The US Dollar range was $US1.33 million to $US800k. The result for this year turned out at $A1.50 million (USD 1.09 million). We were in the upper part of the range for both currencies though we were flat in US Dollar terms.

The Australian stockmarket didn't perform that well again, the Australian Dollar fell to 73 US Cents and we spent an even higher amount including moving house and preparing for a baby. Therefore, the result was below the most optimistic projection. I'm actually surprised how well we did do given all that!

So, now is time to forecast for 2016. The optimistic projection is $A1.7 million or USD 1.2 million assuming the Australian Dollar only declines to 70 US Cents. This assumes that Snork Maiden doesn't return to work till 2017.

The most pessimistic scenario is that the stock market falls by 20%, the value of our house falls to $A700k, and the Australian Dollar falls to 60 US cents. In that case, I estimate our net worth would be $A1.25 million or USD 750k.



December 2015 Monthly Report

Here are our monthly accounts (in AUD):


We spent even more money than last month - $21k in total. And this doesn't include our mortgage or amounts I have accounted as investment in our property which totaled another $7.8k (see "transfer to housing". $13.5k of the spending was on gardening, which, fairly arbitrarily, I deemed didn't improve the value of our property and so was accounted for as spending. So, core, non-mortgage spending not counting this once-off number was $7.6k.

We earned $25.3k in salary and other current payments, which was high this month as it was a three paycheck month and I received a big business travel refund for travel I made several months ago. Because of the large transfer to the housing account we dissaved $3.7k on the current account. We made $4.2k of retirement contributions, and saved a net $5.7k in added housing equity. Net saving was, therefore, $6.2k across the board.

Stock markets were more volatile this month. The ASX 200 rose 2.73%, the MSCI World Index fell  1.76%, but the S&P 500 fell 1.58%. The Australian Dollar rose to $US0.7285 from $US0.7233. We gained 1.55% in Australian Dollar terms and 2.28% in US Dollar terms. So we underperformed the Australian market and outperformed international markets strongly. The best performing investment was the CFS Geared Share Fund, which gained $26.8k. Nothing else came close. Commodities did not do well with the Winton Global Alpha fund losing $1.2k.

As a result of all this, net worth rose $A24k including housing equity (+$US25k) to $1.498 million ($US1.092 million).

An annual report is coming soon.