Thursday, January 22, 2009

Rear View Mirror Retirement Allocation Advice

Christopher Joye in an article in the Business Spectator today performs a retirement portfolio optimization using historical Australian data for 1982-2008 much like I did in in this post. But while I was asking what portfolio would have performed best in the past he is using the results to recommend the portfolio that superannuation (retirement) funds should adopt in the future. His conclusion - allocate heavily to residential property (a property class that no institutions in Australia invest in apparently for tax reasons) - government bonds, and cash. These asset classes have had the best risk adjusted performance in the past. If we know anything about investment theory it is that mean reversion is likely and that equities and commercial property will probably perform better in the next decade than in the last, while government bonds and Australian residential property perform worse.

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