Monday, February 19, 2007

Wealth Cycle Investing



Since Millionaire Artist wrote that Loral Langemeier's "Wealth Cycle Investing" was a very foreign in approach to her, I was intrigued to take a look for myself. I got a copy and have started reading it. Basically it seems to be about levering up your balance sheet and taking more risks and for people with zero or negative net worth starting a side business to generate some cash to invest. This isn't very unusual to me. I feel Langemeier is overexaggerating how different her approach is. But it is radically different to the advice given by the usual personal finance gurus like Suze Orman.

Like many such business investment oriented "gurus" she favors direct investment in income-producing assets rather than financial assets like stocks. But she does like origination of loans to other people. I don't see any neccessary inherent advantage in direct purchase of productive assets. Take for example Warren Buffett. He does get involved directly in the insurance business - this is where Berkshire's real business knowledge is. Otherwise they are investing insurance profits and float is other people's businesses. Even when Berkshire buys whole companies as subsidiaries they retain existing management in place. In fact that is a key Berkshire principle - investing in good managers. But Loral only seems to think that investing in stocks as a way to learn about businesses (which it is too). Why not invest with good managers?

In fact, good managers could be seen as part of the investor's "team". Langemeier emphasizes continually the importance of a team to investment and business success. And it is true that networking and extensive use of specialized professionals is going to be crucial to the kind of investing she favors. Investors like me network too - but mainly online. I don't yet use any professionals for the kind of investing I do. I rely on books written by professionals. I figure out my own taxes and figure out that at this stage I don't need an "entity" (guru self-help books often overemphasize the need for "entities" - filing Schedule C as a self-proprietor has many of the same advantages - but again they are going to be much more useful for direct investors than financial traders). Well in fact Langemeier does recommend investment in private equity. Her rationale seems to be that she is more likely to have direct access to management as a private equity investor. Given the minimum usual required investment in private equity and the need to diversify over a few deals, even if you could get in on a deal as a non-accredited investor it might not be a good idea. On the other hand if you are really an active participant then it is like investing in your own business and maybe is a risk worth taking?

Otherwise, her advice seems generally solid to me and she does discuss risk, but like Kiyosaki, and others I think overstates how appropriate this path is for most people. There is no inherent advantage in my opinion in investing in any particular class of asset or starting any type of business unless you have some aptitude or edge in that investment or business. If you lack the aptitude things can instead go very wrong. If you have no edges you want to be maximally diversified (actually, to her credit, Loral likes diversification). Her best client story, is based on Jed who was managing a small chain of bike stores but had a net worth below zero. Following his first investment of just $3000, Jed quickly manages to put together complicated real estate deals. I think his management experience helped him to do this. Understanding what your edge is is I think very important to business and investment success but rather under-discussed.

8 comments:

Jacqui said...

Moomin,

Yannick and I have been your blogs' loyal reader since we found your blog. I like your "network" online idea, I am doing an exactly the same thing.

Just one point, it seems that your link to "go very wrong" is broken. I guess that it means this link.

mOOm said...

I started back in the late 1990s on Silicon Investor and Yahoo Finance learning from others about investing and trading. And now there are lots of great blogs, some of which I have linked to from this one.

mOOm said...

Millionaire Artist e-mailed me this message which she tried to post but Blogger wouldn't let her for whatever reason:

"Hi Moom,

I really appreciate your thoughts on Loral's book. I probably fall squarely in the category of folks classified as 'beginners' (and like the Jed example in the book, have limited means to start).

My greatest surprise with this book is that many of the approaches did seem brand new to me. In particular, buying assets by reallocating IRA dollars. While that isn't necessarily risky, it makes me as a beginner wonder how steep the learning curve is to generate wealth by directly investing (using IRA money or not)... But again, I come from a beginner background with little point of reference and a fair bit of skepticism.

I guess the biggest question this book raised for me was "could I possibly learn enough to accurately hedge my bets against total failure?" Negative thinking for sure, but where to even begin? Since reading that book I've been into "Money Misconceptions" which explains more about mortages and makes Loral's book feel less strange. I like that your approach to learning investing has been long and consistent. This is the only way to go to really understand anything new in-depth. Lucky for me I will not be purchasing property any time soon and will have plenty of time to contemplate."

My response:

"Kenric at LiveLearnInvest has been looking at doing a self-directed IRA. There is the same idea in Australia too. But the government there has tried to reduce what it thinks are abuses - for example buy a property in the IRA and then rent it to your own business (you get to deduct rent from regular income and receive income tax free in the IRA). Don't know what the limits on that kind of thing are here. The main issue is you can't borrow in an IRA (but can buy options, futures, leveraged mutual funds that include implict borrowing). So you'd need to buy property outright. All these rela estate gurus are always going on about the benefits of leverage. You won't get that by investing an IRA directly in property (but can get it by investing the IRA in stocks using the products I mentioned).

As I wrote in my post I don't see any particular advantage in direct asset allocation. I reckon Loral must have been burnt buying stocks before. She sounds like a control-freak phoning up the CEO of the private companies she is invested in.

The risks are more concentrated in this kind of investment and the learning curve I think is steeper. You can go more incrementally buying publicly listed companies.

Tell me more about "Money Misconceptions" - is that a book or website or what?"

Adventures In Money Making said...

you can lend money out of your IRA if you've set up a self-directed IRA. there is a lot of fraud going on in this field and if you leverage the funds and/or invest in an actively managed business, you will be assessed UBTI(unearned biz taxable income) which is 35% and worse off than long term capital gains.

Having already taken the path she's mentioned, I can atest to its virtues. However, if it doesn't fit your personality type, you probably wont do well at it.

I think you need to be slightly entrepreneurial and slightly financially savvy. If you're not, you could always pay her $10k for mentorship!!!

mOOm said...

Are you saying you can borrow money from the IRA (like a 401k loan) and then use that as a downpayment? The disadvantage of the 401k loan is that the money you put back in is after tax and then gets taxed again when you finally make distributions from the IRA. If it's your only source for funding a business say it might still make sense.... though one would need to compare that with just cashing out the IRA. Anyway in the book Loral is talking about buying real estate inside an IRA. I can get lots of leverage in the stock market using an IRA by using options or levered funds, but can't actually use a margin loan.

I agree that you need to have relevant skills and personality for Loral's path - she makes it sound like it is something everyone can succeed at.

I was discussing with Snork Maiden about how I hate managing people. Supervising grad students is hard enough and my limited experience with employees isn't something I am keen on repeating. She says I'm "too sensitive". She says I am very suited to sitting in front of a computer and trading in the financial markets and working out what is going on there. Chatting with people online is much better too. I hate phoning people. Of course I don't mind speaking in public, that is a big part of my job.

Anonymous said...

Banks are falling over themselves to lend money, at ultra-low interest rates and with no strings attached. And the Los Angeles private equity firms do not even need to have a good credit rating. They secure the debt they borrow on the assets of the companies they buy. With pre-determined debt interest costs, any increase in profits from reducing staff numbers, for example, goes straight to the private equity investors.

Anonymous said...

Los Angeles private equity is clearly an industry in a hurry – on just about everything except in admitting its own failings.But their were encouraging signs of humility yesterday from the new “masters of the universe”, as committee chair John McFall dubbed private equity witnesses at the committee’s first session.

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