Asset Allocation at "Peak Bonds"

At this point we have probably finished expanding our allocation to bonds and from here the share will fall again. So, I thought it would be interesting to post a snapshot of our asset allocation here to contrast with in later posts. All the blue segments in this pie chart are equity related including the allocations to private equity and hedge funds, though only the first four are allocated to listed long-only stocks. For the first time I have split the commodities category into actual gold and futures which includes managed futures and the cash used in our own trading. Cash is money in our regular bank accounts.

We don't include our house in the breakdown and there are also debts, particularly a margin loan and our mortgage. This is just the assets side of the picture.

Weekend Trading

Bitcoin is again rising over this weekend, so far. I set a stop buy order in my CFD trading account, which allows me to trade Bitcoin 24/7 for 7700 and it has triggered. Bitcoin is around 8000 at the moment. This long position hedges my short futures position. It allows me to have a stop on my position over the weekend when the futures market is closed. I would have been better off and less anxious if instead I had closed the futures position at the close of trading on Saturday morning Australian time. I think that is what I will do in future.

Monday's Move in Bitcoin was a Huge Outlier

The weekend move in Bitcoin extended into Monday's trading and Bitcoin ended up rising 25%. You can see how much of an outlier that was on my daily trading return vs. volatility graph:

Since then, Bitcoin has gone into another consolidation range. This morning it looked like we might get stopped out of the long trade at the open, but the market bounced and we are still long from 5285.

P.S. 12:55pm

We just closed the long position and went short at 7715. Profit on the trade was USD 12.1k Of course, all this was done automatically via stop orders. 20 minutes later the short is up USD 5k. This is crazy price action.

Bitcoin Going Completely Nuts Over the Weekend

I've noticed that in recent days Bitcoin has gone up starting at around 6pm US Eastern time when all stock markets in the World apart from New Zealand are closed. Of course, this is the afternoon and evening on the US West Coast. So, I figured that it was driven by retail investors in the U.S. Now this weekend, that trend has continued in dramatic fashion:

Bitcoin is up almost $700 on Friday's close. Luckily, I am long Bitcoin futures. It certainly makes me wary of ever being short Bitcoin over the weekend. Bitcoin has now popped up to be my 22nd best investment in dollar terms ever - I've been investing since 1996... Just about to overtake Pendal Property Investments. Anyway, anything could happen by 10am Monday Eastern Australia time when the futures market re-opens...

P.S.
Obvious solution to going short over the weekend is to have an account with a cash Bitcoin exchange that is open over the weekend and buy Bitcoin if the stop loss level is reached. What such exchanges allow stop orders?

P.P.S.
Bitcoin now up $1000 since Friday. If this persists till Monday it will be the biggest daily move in percentage terms in my dataset, possibly since the futures market open at the end of 2017. Plus 500 allows CFD trading 24/7. There are huge buy-sell spreads, so this would only be used as insurance. You can place conditional orders, such as buy only when the price reaches a certain level.

P.P.P.S.
I tried the demo platforms at Plus500 and eToro. eToro appears to be very limited and geared to novice traders. There were strong restrictions on the levels of orders that could be placed. So, Plus 500 seems to be the only real option that offers Bitcoin CFD trading 24/7.