Wednesday, January 01, 2014

Managed Accounts Finally Above their Pre-GFC Investment Values

Two of my Mom's managed accounts - one in US stocks and one in international stocks are finally worth a bit more than the amounts we invested in 2007 and 2008 in what were retrospectively ill-timed moves and in one case with a manager who turned out to be have serious issues down the track. Like going out of business issues. This is why it has taken so long to get back above what was originally invested despite the strong performance of U.S. stock indices for a while now. Several funds in her main account are also still losing money. They are all the commodities/futures funds investments and several emerging markets funds (Brazil, India). But this month the portfolio hit a new high, though numbers aren't very accurate as I only update data on spending accounts once a year or so. Investment return this month was 1.25%.

2013 Outcome and 2014 Forecast

In Australian Dollar terms we came in above the top of 2013's predicted range for net worth of $A700k-$A1 million with a final net worth of $A1.098 million. In US Dollar terms the forecast was $500k-$1 million and we ended at $US980k, very close to the top of the range. For this year, my most optimistic forecast is $A1.4 million, which assumes that the Australian Dollar falls to 85 cents and the stock market does well again. The least optimistic forecast is $A1 million which assumes a significant fall in the market and the Australian Dollar at 75 cents. The corresponding US Dollar range is $US1.19 million to $US0.75 million.