Regal Funds Share Purchase Plan

Regal Investment Fund (RF1.AX) is doing a share placement and a share purchase plan (SPP). Under the SPP you can buy up to AUD 30k of shares at the recent NAV of AUD 3.41. They have made an official 20% average rate of return since inception. My internal rate of return is higher than this. So, I think I should take up all of this, but don't have anything I want to sell in the SMSF's brokerage accounts. I could either make an additional AUD 30k non-concessional superannuation contribution to my account or withdraw something from one of the SMSF futures investments. It's probably the last chance to make non-concessional contributions to my account, as I could hit the balance transfer cap of AUD 1.9 million by 30 June 2025. Also, the futures investments have been weak recently, so I think they might see a return to the mean in terms of performance and selling now might not be a good move.

Australian Government Spending

When you get your notice of assessment from the Australian Taxation Office when they have processed your tax return, they send you statement of how the government spends your taxes, which they quaintly call a receipt:

I was a bit surprised by how little interest they are paying. Only a 2.3% average rate of interest and 3.8% of the budget.

Note that this tax total doesn't include the Medicare Levy, which was another $4,411 tax that I paid.

Gold vs. Bitcoin

 

Our bitcoin position is now more valuable than our gold position. 11.5% of net worth is in bitcoin and 10.2% in gold both via ETFs. We also have 4.5% of net worth in crypto company Defi Technologies. Defi is up 215% since we first invested, bitcoin 78%, and gold 94% (since January 2019). I bought shares in gold ETFs earlier but this was when our current series of investments started. Our return should be lower in all of these as we added to the investments gradually.

It's Feeling Crazy Again

Things are starting to feel a bit crazy again. Yesterday, I was thinking: "Maybe this account could reach AUD 500k today!" It has a 69% return in the last year. All the P&L and changes numbers are for one day.

October 2024 Report

In October, the Australian Dollar fell from USD 0.6913 to USD 0.6564, so US Dollar returns are lower than Australian Dollar returns this month. This was an average month in terms of investing activity. Stock indices and other benchmarks performed as follows (total returns including dividends):

US Dollar Indices

MSCI World Index (gross): -2.21%

S&P 500: -0.91%

HFRI Hedge Fund Index: -0.15% (forecast)

Australian Dollar Indices

ASX 200: -1.29%

Target Portfolio: 2.71% (forecast)

Australian 60/40 benchmark: 0.28%

We gained 2.09% in Australian Dollar terms or lost 3.10% in US Dollar terms. So we underperformed US Dollar indices and the target portfolio but outperformed ASX and Vanguard benchmarks.

The SMSF returned -0.75% compared to Unisuper at 1.47% and PSS(AP) at 0.79%.

Here is a report on the performance of investments by asset class:

The asset class returns are in currency neutral terms as the rate of return on gross assets and so the total differs from the Australian Dollar returns on net assets mentioned above. RoW stocks (mostly Defi Technologies) lost a lot of money and private equity a little. Gold had the highest rate of return and made the greatest contribution to overall return.

Things that worked well this month:

• Gold and bitcoin gained AUD 62k and 41k respectively. The gain in gold is a new record amount for a gain in a single investment in one month. Regal Investment Fund (RF1.AX) gained 12k.
  

What really didn't work:

• Defi Technologies lost AUD 44k more than offsetting the gain in bitcoin. Australian Dollar futures lost AUD 21k.
  

Here are the investment performance statistics for the last five years:

The top three lines give our performance in USD and AUD terms, while the last three lines give results for three indices. Our performance fell back this month compared to the ASX200 but, as we have much lower volatility, we have a higher Sharpe ratio of 0.88 vs. 0.55. But as we optimize for Australian Dollar performance, our USD statistics are much worse. We do beat the HFRI hedge fund index in terms of return, but at the expense of much higher volatility. We have a positive alpha relative to the ASX200 of 3.33% with a beta of only 0.46.

We moved towards our target allocation this month. We are most underweight cash and most overweight rest of the world stocks. Our actual allocation currently looks like this:

About 70% of our portfolio is in what are often considered to be alternative assets: real estate, art, hedge funds, private equity, gold, and futures. A lot of these are listed investments or investments with daily, monthly, or quarterly liquidity, so our portfolio is not as illiquid as you might think.

We receive employer superannuation contributions every two weeks. We contribute USD 10k each quarter to the Unpopular Ventures Rolling Fund and less frequently there will be capital calls from Aura Venture Fund II. This month we had returns of capital from my investment in Integrated Portfolio Solutions (AUD 41k) and Aura VF1 (6k) and lots of dividends. We were also issued shares in Dash - the company acquiring IPS. I made the following additional moves this month:

• I sold 50k shares of Cadence Capital (CDM.AX) and bought 25k shares of Cadence Opportunities (CDO.AX). These were in different accounts. Until last month these two funds returns became more and more correlated until suddenly there has been a change in behaviour and an outsize gain in Cadence Opportunities. CDO is supposed to have a shorter term horizon and be more opportunistic.
  
• I bought 500 shares of the Fidelity bitcoin ETF (FBTC).
• I sold 1000 shares of the Perth Mint gold ETF (PMGOLD.AX). So I swapped this amount of gold for bitcoin.