In May, the Australian Dollar rose from USD 0.6392 to USD 0.6431 meaning that USD investment returns are a bit better than AUD investment returns. Stock markets rose (total returns including dividends):
US Dollar Indices
MSCI World Index (gross): 5.81%
S&P 500: 6.29x%
HFRI Hedge Fund Index: 1.30% (forecast)
Australian Dollar Benchmarks
ASX 200: 4.38%
Target Portfolio: 3.70x% (forecast - depends on HFRI result)
Australian 60/40 benchmark: 3.17%
We gained 2.27% in Australian Dollar terms or gained 2.90% in US Dollar terms. So the only benchmark we are expected to beat is the HFRI. We underperformed the target portfolio because of the very high private equity returns of 14% for venture and 11% for buyout that fed into it. By comparison we earned 0.89% on our private equity investments.
Here is a report on the performance of investments by asset class:
The asset class returns are in currency neutral terms as the rate of return on gross assets and do not include investment expenses such as margin interest, and so the total differs from the Australian Dollar returns on net assets mentioned above. All asset classes but gold had positive returns with the strongest returns from Australian small cap and the largest contribution from hedge funds, mainly due to a rebound in Pershing Square Holdings.
Things that worked well this month:
- Six investments gained more than AUD 10k: Pershing Square Holdings (PSH.L, 37k), Unisuper (23k), PSS(AP) (15k), Regal Partners (RPL.AX, 14k), WCM Global (WCMQ.AX, 12k), and Bitcoin (12k).
What really didn't work:
- Regal Investment Fund (RF1.AX) lost AUD 10k.
Here are the investment performance statistics for the last five years:
The top three lines give our performance in USD and AUD terms, while the last three lines give the same statistics for four benchmarks. This month, we have added the Vanguard 60/40 ETF portfolio to the set of benchmarks. The middle block gives our performance relative to the indices.
These are now measured from the end of May 2020. Our alpha relative to the ASX200 fell to 3.1% with a beta of only 0.48. We still have much lower volatility, resulting in a information ratio of 1.43 vs. 1.11. We capture much less of the downside moves than the upside moves in the market. We also have very good performance relative to the Vanguard 60/40 portfolio with the same volatility but 4% p.a. more return. But as we optimize for Australian Dollar performance, our USD statistics are much worse. We do beat the HFRI hedge fund index in terms of return, but at the expense of much higher volatility. Our USD volatility is at least less than that of the MSCI index, but our return is more than three percentage points lower.
We moved strongly towards our target allocation as we completed redeployment of cash from the sales in April. Our actual allocation currently looks like this:
About 70% of our portfolio is in what are often considered to be alternative assets: real estate, art, hedge funds, private equity, gold, and futures. A lot of these are listed investments or investments with daily liquidity, so our portfolio is not as illiquid as you might think.
We receive employer superannuation contributions every two weeks. We make an annual concessional contribution to Moominmama's superannuation to reach the annual cap on contributions. We contribute USD 10k each quarter to the Unpopular Ventures Rolling Fund and less frequently there will be capital calls from Aura Venture Fund II. I am now receiving TTR pension payments from both Unisuper and our SMSF and contributing more than the total of these back to my superannuation accounts. (around AUD 4k net contribution per month). It was another busy month. I made the following additional moves this month:
- I made a UK pension contribution for the 2024-25 financial year.
- I bought 200 shares of Berkshire Hathaway B (BRK/B). I think Greg
Abel may find better things to do with the cash pile than Buffett did
and, as he is an operations guy, rationalize some of the existing
subsidiaries.
- I bought 40k shares of a Metrics private credit LIT (MOT.AX). The idea
is that this will fund TTR pension payouts next financial year. It is
trading about 7% below NAV so has some margin of safety.
- I sold 1,000 shares of the gold ETF PMGOLD.AX. We hold 13k shares now.
- I bought net 2.5k more shares of an ASX200 ETF (IOZ.AX). Yes, I'm getting more
comfortable with passive investing for the long equity portion of our
portfolio. We now have 3k shares.
- I bought 2,000 more shares of the WCM Global Quality managed ETF (WCMQ.AX). We now have 13k shares.
- I bought 10k more shares of the Pengana private equity LIT (PE1.AX). We now have 87k shares.
- I bought net 60k more shares of the WAM Capital LIC (WAM.AX). We now have 100k shares.
- I bought 1,175 more shares of a bitcoin ETF (IBTC.AX). We now have 8k shares. Roughly 0.8 BTC.
- I bought 300 more shares of 3i (III.L) after it sold off on what looks like a great earnings report. Earnings on stated NAV were 25% up 25% on the previous year. It trades way above NAV, but that is because NAV is stated pretty conservatively I think. We now have 3,800 shares.
- I bought 500 more shares of Pershing Square Holdings (PSH.L). Their reduction of their position in Universal Music, increase in positions in tech stocks, and possibility of strong performance for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac together with the price being way below NAV, encouraged me to add to the position. We now have 5,500 shares.