Short VIX Trade

I initiated a short VIX trade before the official US market open yesterday evening. VIX is the index of S&P 500 options volatility. Volatility tends to rise when the market goes down. A "guru" I follow on Twitter proposed the trade. He said he would use a complicated options strategy to effectively get short UVXY, which is a 2x long VIX futures ETF. UVXY has an amazing track record of losing money and so shorting the ETF gives you an automatic tailwind. Most times that they roll to the next futures contract as the last expires they lose money on the transaction. However, if there is some sort of catastrophe that increased volatility further the stock could 10x. So shorting or selling naked call options on UVXY feels to risky to me and instead I went long SVIX. It is an ETF that it is short 1x the VIX futures. It has an automatic tendency to make money when markets are calm or calming, though it will lose money big time when volatility increases. But the worst you can do is lose 100%. So, I bought 1,000 shares at $21.35, which is around a 0.5% position.

If the market goes up from here both SVIX and SPY or QQQ will rise, so why short the VIX? Effectively, it is a very levered trade on the index. Here is a 5 year chart of the ETF:

From the Iran War bottom in late March to the recent top the stock doubled. Closing below the 13 week moving average would probably be a good signal to get out of the trade.