Stopping Daytrading

Well, that didn't last long. I think it is definitely possible to make money using this daytrading method, but it is definitely not for me. The problem is that though entry to positions is "automated" the exit is discretionary. If you say it is the end of the session, then you can't do it exactly at the end  -say at 4:30pm for the ASX200 futures. So, do you do it at 4:00 pm? 4:10pm? 4:30pm?, 5:10pm? or what? There is a temptation to hang on for the price to improve. And I seem to have a strong self-destructive tendency, which I need to control with rules based trading.

Adding Individual Stock Trading

My last post looked at my trading profit and loss from futures, ETFs, CFDs etc. But it didn't include individual stocks, which I traded a lot in the early years. So, I went into my data and tried to identify, which individual stocks were trades and which investments. It's not so easy to tell in some cases. However, anything I was generally short was clearly a trade as well as stocks I held for less than a month typically. So, the result is quite rough.

But the picture is clear. Adding individual stocks makes my trading history look much worse up to 2006:

I have now almost recouped all my previous trading losses in the last two years of trading. There are still a few days left to go and anything can happen, but this month is looking to be a record trading gain.

Trading History

I was wondering how my trading performance looked over the long haul and put together this chart which is cumulative profits from trading futures, ETFs, options etc. Mostly, I haven't included individual company stocks. Up to 2002 I just lost money really. Then from 2006 to 2008 I started systematic trading and had ups and downs and mainly went sideways. But then as the financial crisis deepened things went off a cliff. After that, I didn't trade for a decade until last year. After and initial dip, I made money every month till October last year and then took a break from trading. This year, I came back with a new approach and so far are doing even better. I am now better than breakeven in the long run from trading. I would say that I am optimistic now rather than confident that this can be a long-run source of profits.

Bitcoin Going Completely Nuts Over the Weekend

I've noticed that in recent days Bitcoin has gone up starting at around 6pm US Eastern time when all stock markets in the World apart from New Zealand are closed. Of course, this is the afternoon and evening on the US West Coast. So, I figured that it was driven by retail investors in the U.S. Now this weekend, that trend has continued in dramatic fashion:

Bitcoin is up almost $700 on Friday's close. Luckily, I am long Bitcoin futures. It certainly makes me wary of ever being short Bitcoin over the weekend. Bitcoin has now popped up to be my 22nd best investment in dollar terms ever - I've been investing since 1996... Just about to overtake Pendal Property Investments. Anyway, anything could happen by 10am Monday Eastern Australia time when the futures market re-opens...

P.S.
Obvious solution to going short over the weekend is to have an account with a cash Bitcoin exchange that is open over the weekend and buy Bitcoin if the stop loss level is reached. What such exchanges allow stop orders?

P.P.S.
Bitcoin now up $1000 since Friday. If this persists till Monday it will be the biggest daily move in percentage terms in my dataset, possibly since the futures market open at the end of 2017. Plus 500 allows CFD trading 24/7. There are huge buy-sell spreads, so this would only be used as insurance. You can place conditional orders, such as buy only when the price reaches a certain level.

P.P.P.S.
I tried the demo platforms at Plus500 and eToro. eToro appears to be very limited and geared to novice traders. There were strong restrictions on the levels of orders that could be placed. So, Plus 500 seems to be the only real option that offers Bitcoin CFD trading 24/7.

Planning Permission Refused

I got an email today from the city planning office that the development in our neighbourhood that I had objected to was refused planning permission. The plan violated many individual rules, but basically the developers were trying to cram too much development into a small space. They planned on 56 town houses and commercial space and 12 apartments in a 5 storey building. The development occupies the two greenish blocks on the map:

You can see the size of townhouses and houses in the neighboring development (yes, we live there) to get an idea of how crammed this development was planned to be.

I objected to the height of the 5 storey building, which we would see from the front of our house, largely blocking our existing view to a wooded hill. Only 7 members of the public had filed written objections to the original plan despite wide advertising by the government of the application and consultation sessions in the neighborhood. I was the only person who wrote an objection against the revised plan the developers submitted.

I have been surprised how much work the developers have been doing on site. Apart from demolishing the existing office buildings, they have done most the excavation for underground car parks and then started building individual underground garages for the townhouses on the east of the site. They also recently installed a big yellow tower crane on site. How could they submit a plan that violated so many rules and then invest so much money on the basis of such a flawed plan. Will they have to change the work they have already done or will they get away with it? They have a month to appeal the decision, or they will need to submit a new plan.

Do You Feel You are in a Lower Wealth Percentile Than What the Official Data Say?

People tend to think they are less relatively wealthy than they are. You can check out your perceptions against reality for a number of countries here. I'm not surprised. According to the official statistics we are in the top 4% of households in Australia by wealth. But looking around, it certainly doesn't feel like that could be true. Our house is only valued a few percent above the median for our city. Our car is a 15 year old Ford when it feels like the roads are full of luxury vehicles. But it's not like we are saving like crazy. In 2018, we spent almost all of what we earned from salaries. Apparently, a lot of people feel the same way.

Was It a Good Decision to Switch to Defined Contribution Superannuation?

Back in 2009 when I started with my current employer, I carried out a cost-benefit analysis to see whether it made sense to stay in the default defined benefit scheme or to switch to the defined contribution scheme. As a result of the analysis I switched to defined contribution.

Was that a good decision. Using the info in the Unisuper PDS and my data I compute that if I retired at the end of this month I would get a lump sum of AUD 213k. My actual Unisuper account is at AUD 284k. So, so far it's been a good decision.

For context, in Britain, there have been strikes and demonstrations against the plan to switch academics from  defined benefit to defined contribution. But I see defined benefit as a regressive form of socialism where people who are promoted near the end of their career suck the benefits from the system. This is because the lump sum benefit is proportional to the members salary in the last 5 years. I've seem quite a few people promoted to professor in their last few years and of course, deans and other senior administrators benefit heavily from the scheme. This is at the expense of successful researchers who are promoted early and stay in research at a more or less constant salary.

If You Follow This Advice You Won't Be Able to Buy a House

If you follow this advice from Ramit Sethi, you won't have any money to buy a house or start a business, unless you have a lot left over after doing all these things. The image that accompanies the article is very apt:

If you follow this advice you will be locking all your time away in the piggy bank until you are 59 1/2 (or 60 in Australia). I think I should start writing my own financial advice:

The first step is the same - if your employer requires you to match to their retirement contributions in order to receive it, do it. In Australia that isn't normal, but in some jobs in the public sector there can be additional tax advantaged employee contributions on top of the employer contributions. I would suggest skipping those until you do my step two unless it really reduces the retirement benefits you will get.

Step two is also paying down debt, but only on high interest loans like credit cards. If you have debt where the after tax interest rate is lower than the after tax expected return on investment, pay those off as slowly as you can. So yes, get rid of credit card debt ASAP, but student loans and home mortgages are usually debt you don't want to get rid of in a hurry. Taking on a moderate about of extra debt if the rate is good (as in leveraged managed funds or even margin loans) can be good, but don't overdo it.

Step three is the "emergency fund" or equivalent. Get some cash together to cover emergencies and opportunities. Having the ability to borrow more is good too of course, but don't just rely on that. I had about $20k in cash before I started to invest. As that is 20 years ago, you probably should double that number now.

Step four is probably investing outside of retirement accounts. This means your money isn't locked up till you retire. The supposedly lower tax of retirement accounts comes at a heavy price. With low long-term capital gains tax and reduced rates on dividends (especially in Australia) the tax on non-retirement accounts may be not much higher than on retirement accounts in Aus (and you can make bigger contributions later in Aus as I am now contemplating when you have plenty of money). US 401ks are taxed heavily on withdrawal in retirement though they have no tax during accumulation. The US Roth IRA though is an attractive investment as it leaves options more open.

Step five - if house prices are reasonable relative to rents in your area and you aren't planning on moving a lot, once you have more than enough for a downpayment, buying a house is probably a good move. But do a proper cost benefit analysis of this.

Step six - once you have done these and if you aren't thinking of getting into business, now you can look at maxing out retirement accounts.

I didn't mention trading - unless you have a proven model and want to pursue this as a real business you can do this as a hobby alongside Step 6. Most traders lose money though, so it is definitely an expensive hobby for them.

New Era in Moomin Valley

In a few months we will reach "financial independence" - our annual spending will be feasible with a little less than a 3% p.a. withdrawal rate. About 60% of this was due to our own efforts working, saving, and investing over the last 24 years and 40% from inheritance. I never depended on receiving the inheritance, which is why I saved so hard. Because I knew finding an academic job could be very hard when my initial short-term contracts ended, I saved up to 50% a year at times. This allowed me to live for a year in 2001-2 without working for pay, traveling around the world looking for work. Similarly, when we moved to Australia, I could experiment with trading in the financial markets while exploring alternatives.

On the other hand, I think I was willing to take more risk based on the probability that we would receive a substantial amount. In the case of the financial crisis in 2008-9, I took on too much risk. The pressure of trying to make a living from trading with a small amount of capital combined with the volatility of the financial crisis was too much and I decided to stage an academic career comeback, which has been very successful.

The other half of the financial independence equation in the blogging community is usually "retire early". I don't have any plan to do that any time soon. I like the research side of my work and I have my teaching etc organized so that going forward it shouldn't be too hard - I only need to teach during one half of the year for now. As things are at the moment, it would be hard to find a better job than this. So, it doesn't make any sense to sacrifice my salary. I am actually exploring a potential career move to another bigger city. That job would have more admin and maybe no teaching. Introspection tells me that I wouldn't like to retire currently.  On the other hand, Moominmama is pretty frustrated with her work at the moment and so now has options to take a break and consider alternatives.

On the other hand, our spending is growing by more than the rate of inflation and I expect that to continue. So the current 3% withdrawal rate would become more than a 3% rate over time unless investment returns are very good, which does not seem likely. Continuing to earn some money does sound good in those circumstances.

Is continuing to work limiting our location choices? At the moment, I don't think there is another location that we would both agree on and which would make practical sense. We have to consider education opportunities for little Moomin. So, moving to a small town in Australia does not sound like a good move from that perspective. The nice parts (with good education) of the two biggest Australian cities are extremely expensive and would take us out of the financial independence zone. We definitely would never move to Moominmama's home country (she doesn't even want to visit at the moment). Moominmama is not enthusiastic about moving to either of my home countries. One is too cold and dark as far as she is concerned (Northern Europe) and the other too foreign and dangerous (Middle East). That leaves Southern Europe as a sensible or feasible alternative, but I don't think we want Moomin to grow up speaking Spanish or French? I think it would be hard for Moominmama to learn those languages too, though not difficult for me. So, continuing to work is not stopping us from making a move to another location that we could or would want to make.

So, for now not much will change, but this blog will change. I plan to stop reporting actual earning, spending, and net worth figures. Going forward, all numbers will be in percentage terms only. When the vast majority of our net worth was the result of our own work and effort I was happy to report those numbers, and reporting, even though it is mostly anonymously, helped keep us on track. But now that so much of our net worth has not come from our own efforts and we don't have the goal of achieving financial independence anymore, I don't want to report the numbers any more. On the other hand, I'm not going to erase the existing blog.

Our long term goal now is to pass on at least as much wealth in real terms to the next generation as we received from the previous one. My parents also inherited more than 2/3 of their eventual net worth, though they also saved and worked hard to build up wealth in earlier years. They eventually passed on what they inherited.

How Did We Get to AUD 2 Million?

This month we hit $A2 million net worth for the first time. We reached $A1 million in September 2013. How did net worth increase that much in 4 years? This graph should help explain:

The biggest contributor is profits on retirement accounts at $295k. Stock markets have been very strong. Retirement contributions added $182k. Housing equity contributed $249k. Current savings added $72k and profits on non-retirement accounts $219k. But, of course, we shifted $150k of current savings as a downpayment on our house. So really current savings were a larger contributor than retirement contributions. Of course, mortgage payments come out of our current income too.

A lot of the time it feels like that we aren't doing any saving now apartment from mortgage principal payments and retirement contributions. The blue line shows that actually we are.

10 Years in Australia

Today is the 10th anniversary of us arriving together in Australia. A lot has happened but in another way not much has happened. We live in the same city, though we moved suburb. Moominmama is still in the same job that we came here for her to start. But now we have a child. When we first came here, I was planning on quitting academia. That didn't work out, and I returned to academia and am now a full professor and also have had some heavy admin roles.

When we came here we had a net worth of about $A1/2 million and a relatively low income - Moominmama's (then Snork Maiden) salary and what I could make from trading. Now we are approaching $A2 million net worth and typically spend twice what she was earning then every month.

This is a snapshot of our net worth ($A) at the beginning of September 2007 and 2017:

It wasn't smooth upward sailing from 2007 to 2017. The financial crisis arrived soon and our net worth plummeted. It hit a minimum of $A284k in February 2009, though that was one month I didn't post a monthly account on this blog. Over the ten years retirement accounts grew much more than stocks in non-retirement accounts. This has been due to much better returns on retirement accounts, largely because of the huge negative effect of the financial crisis, and partly due to diversion of savings to buying a house and then stacking up money in our offset account. We saved more money in non-retirement accounts than in retirement contributions over the ten years. These are the sources of the change in net worth over the period:

Current profit is on non-retirement accounts and is pre-tax. Net tax is reflected in income and hence current savings. Of course, a big chunk of housing equity was once current savings, which we then contributed as a downpayment and since then we have been making mortgage principle payments. Only $37k is attributed to gain in house value.

Asset Allocation Update

As I mentioned in the monthly report we did a big asset reallocation recently.You can see the step down in the allocation to large cap Australian shares to about 35% in the graph above (this is gross assets rather than net worth). We increased the allocation to all other asset classes. Also on the graph you can see various phases in our recent financial history - the financial crisis and the recovery from it; saving up the cash for a house downpayment; buying the house; saving up cash in our offset account to pay off the mortgage. This month our mortgage interest is down to $1,217. In the first month after we moved in it was $2,189.... The plan when we pay off the mortgage is to redraw it for reinvestment making the interest tax deductible.

I didn't include our house in the graph. If I did, it would be about 25% of gross assets.

Investment Tax Credits

Revanche provides info on her progress in increasing dividend flow from stocks. I can't actually give you that exact information unless I ignored the dividend component of pay outs from managed (mutual) funds, because I haven't kept an exact record of that breakdown, as it isn't needed for tax purposes and doesn't help much for investment management purposes. What I do track is the tax credits associated with dividends. This is a particularly Australian phenomenon. Companies can pass on credit to shareholders for the Australian company tax they paid. These are called "imputation credits" or "franking credits". We can also claim a tax credit for foreign tax withheld on dividends etc. I call the total "investment tax credits". And this is what it has done since the 1997-98 tax year:

There was a big fall off during the Global Financial Crisis, but since then we have seen a steep rise. This year we reached just under AUD 9,000. These credits reduce our tax bill dollar for dollar. We are going to need to multiply this by nine though to wipe out our current tax bill :) It's at about AUD 79k before credits. The yield of tax credits is 1% of the liquid non-retirement assets we have. So, they'd have to reach AUD 8 million to eliminate our current tax bill. That's not going to happen, unfortunately.

Entering the Top Tax Bracket

Only 3% of Australian taxpayers are in the top tax bracket, which starts at $180,000 a year and has a marginal tax rate currently of 49%. And now I'm one of them, I think. IPE just declared a 5.75 cents a share dividend payable next month. I have 100,000 shares and so the dividend is $5,750. And it is a totally unfranked dividend. After this, I'm currently estimating my taxable income for the year at $182k and I'm now expecting to pay $3,000 extra tax at tax time. That also means I'm going to have to pay quarterly tax from now on.

I guess this is a good problem to have, but it feels kind of absurd that I'm now in the top tax bracket. Of course, when I first moved to Australia I wasn't that far from it because it kicked in at $50,000 a year in those days (1996) and my salary was a little higher than that. After "voluntary" super contributions of 7% and some deductions I was out of the zone.

Moominmama's reaction was that I should generate some business expenses to pull my income down. I could buy a nice big computer screen for home use, which I couldn't charge to my employer. It will be half price now I'm in the top tax bracket. I'm already almost maxing out my pre-tax super contributions. But spending money on stuff just to reduce tax is silly.

Half a Century

Today is my fiftieth birthday. It feels like quite a milestone. This morning I was sitting in a presentation with a colleague from a unit I used to work in who when I asked him how things are going said: "This is my final year, I'm retiring"... so after discussing that for a bit I told him it was my 50th birthday today. He said he was working too hard to celebrate back in 2000. It's probably the halfway point in my adult life, though you never know how long you are going to live, of course, we can just rely on life expectancies and how long our parents lived.

Careerwise, I think I need to be a bit less like this guy - "my strategic plan is to say yes to everything" and more like this guy. Two of the bloggers I follow. I find it hard to say no, though I am doing it more and more. Early in your career I do think you want to say yes a lot, but then you need to start to get more selective or you'll never get anything good done. You need to decide what to invest time in. I've been fairly successful. Three years ago I was appointed full professor and I am a reasonably well known researcher in some circles. I'm happy with some of my research, but I still think I could do much better work.

I got my PhD at age 29, but in a lot of other ways I've been a late developer. Since my fortieth birthday I achieved one major typical life goal - getting married (six years ago now) but at 50 I still don't have children, have never owned a house etc. I guess these goals were never that important to me or I actually was opposed to them. If you follow the blog, you'll know we are still pursuing those two goals. We probably have achieved the goal of financial security, though it could still all unwind if things go really wrong. I'm definitely not a risk averse person. I have come quite a way though from the crisis point in 2008. I made the right decision to refocus on my academic career.

Monthly Spending

The graph shows our monthly spending each month since moving to Australia. I've taken out some business related expenditures that get refunded - so this is the same as the core expenditure I report in my monthly reports. You can see that the first year we were frugal and expenditure stuck around or just under the $A4,000 per month level. After that there are lots of spikes associated with travel and other larger expenditures and gradually the average has moved up to about $A6,000 a month currently. Note that $A2,150 a month is our rent. All the numbers are nominal, not adjusted for inflation.

Moomin Valley Monthly Report May 2014

The Australian Dollar barely changed this month. The MSCI World Index rose 2.21%, the S&P 500, 2.35%, and the ASX200 0.68%. We gained 1.73% in US Dollar terms or 1.57% in Australian Dollar terms. So we beat the Australian stock market but not the world markets. Net worth rose $A19k to $1.182 million or $US19k to $US1.099 million. The monthly accounts (in AUD now) follow:

Other income is non-investment income. It was above normal this month at $18.3k as refunds for business travel spending began to come in. Starting in two weeks, I will be travelling around the world, first stop is New York City. Spending as a result was at a record level of $19.1k. But "only" $12.0k of that was "core expenditure". Refunds should cover the other $7k eventually. Last year core spending hit $14k in May. As a result we dissaved from regular income (-$0.8k).  We gained $18.2k on investments. The asset class that did best this month was hedge funds at 4.64%, followed by private equity at 2.9% and commodities at 2.11%. All asset classes gained. The worst was Australian small caps at 0.12%.

You can track our net worth gain and some asset class breakdown on NetWorthIQ. It's interesting to look back at the picture 10 years ago.

One Million Australian Dollars

We reached the long-awaited million Australian dollar net worth level. We aren't quite at a million US Dollars yet. It was back in 2007 when we first crossed a half million Australian Dollars mark for the first time and in 2008 we briefly touched half a million US Dollars. In between there was a global financial crisis, a marriage, and a move to Australia... well in reverse order... attempts to make a living as a trader, being unemployed, and then getting back onto the career track at a higher salary than before:

I actually thought yesterday when the Australian market was falling 85 points (1.6%) that we wouldn't remain above the line at the end of the month. Actually, the Geared Share Fund fell 3.3% on the day but was still up 5.5% on the month.

So the numbers come in at $A1.026 million or $US 958k. Rate of return for the month was 8.63% in USD terms or 3.5% in Australian Dollar terms. The MSCI gained 5.2% and the S&P500 3.14%. More accounting details to come.

Ten Years of Data on NetWorthIQ

Net worth has gone from $61k to $781k.

Saving More Each Month than I Earned as a Graduate Student in a Year

As a relatively old PF blogger :) I've occasionally mentioned that young people shouldn't worry too much about saving for retirement and should enjoy life. Of course, if you are earning a high salary when you are young then go ahead and save. But there is no sense in depriving yourself if your income is low and expected to increase. I just realized that our average saving (not counting investment returns) per month is now more than I earned in a year as a graduate student twenty years ago. I earned between $9k and $10k a year back then (around 1992). Yes, prices have probably about doubled since then, and the Australian Dollar is extremely strong now which makes our current savings particularly high in US Dollar terms, but then let's say we save in 3 months what I earned in a year in real terms and we would not be wrong. Back then I was spending more than I earned then but not dramatically so. I ended up with a negative net worth of about $11k. I expected to certainly earn more in the future than I was then and so thought this was entirely justified. On the other hand, my Dad told me I should be saving money. Of course, maybe that was because he was lending me money :) * I think the investment in my graduate education has certainly paid off. Of course, it might not have but it was hard for me to imagine that I wouldn't be earning a lot more in some job in the future.

But, I think you'll find that most people save the most for retirement in the years leading up to retirement despite all the rhetoric from the financial management industry about starting early and compounding. There is a good reason for this - their income is highest here and for most people other life expenditures are maybe declining (buying a house, having children). The latter isn't the case for us, of course. We are still looking at buying our first house.

* About $9,000 by the end. I was studying in the US as a foreign student so my ability to work while studying was very limited and I depended on what the university would pay me as a grad student. After I paid off my credit card bills in 1995 I started to pay him back. I owed about £5k when he cancelled the loan after he sold some art works he inherited 25 years earlier.