Hopefully, This Isn't True

August 2025 Report

In August, the Australian Dollar rose from USD 0.6433 to USD 0.6540 meaning that USD investment returns are better than AUD investment returns. It was our second highest spending (in nominal terms, January 2015 was the highest) month ever at AUD 27k. School fees and airfares booking coincided. Stock markets rose again (total returns including dividends):

US Dollar Indices

MSCI World Index (gross): 2.51%

S&P 500: 2.03%

HFRI Hedge Fund Index: 0.54% (forecast)

Australian Dollar Benchmarks

ASX 200: 3.30%

Target Portfolio: 0.86% (forecast - depends on HFRI result)

Australian 60/40 benchmark: 1.37%

We gained 1.07% in Australian Dollar terms or 2.76% in US Dollar terms. So we beat all the US Dollar benchmarks but under-performed relative to two of the Australian Dollar benchmarks.

Our SMSF returned 1.31% beating Unisuper (0.75%) but not PSS(AP) (1.35%).

Here is a report on the performance of investments by asset class:

The asset class returns are in currency neutral terms as the rate of return on gross assets and do not include investment expenses such as margin interest, and so the total differs from the Australian Dollar returns on net assets mentioned above. All asset classes apart from private equity had positive returns. US stocks had the greatest return and hedge funds made the largest contribution to total return.

Things that worked well this month:

• The following investments gained more than AUD 10k: Gold (16k), Tribeca Global Resources (16k), Berkshire Hathaway (10k).

What really didn't work:

• Bitcoin lost AUD 14k and 3i 10k.

Here are the investment performance statistics for the last five years:

The top three lines give our performance in USD and AUD terms, while the last three lines give the same statistics for four benchmarks. The middle block gives our performance relative to the indices. 

Our alpha relative to the ASX200 is 2.9% with a beta of only 0.48. We still have much lower volatility, resulting in a information ratio of 1.42 vs. 1.12. We capture much less of the downside moves than the upside moves in the market. We also have very good performance relative to the Vanguard 60/40 portfolio with the same volatility but 4% p.a. more return. We captured 100% of the upside of this portfolio but only 60% of the downside. But as we optimize for Australian Dollar performance, our USD statistics are much worse. We do beat the HFRI hedge fund index in terms of return, but at the expense of far higher volatility. Our USD volatility is at least less than that of the MSCI index, but our return is more than four percentage points lower.

We moved a little bit away our target allocation. Our actual allocation currently looks like this:

About 65% of our portfolio is in what are often considered to be alternative assets: real estate, art, hedge funds, private equity, gold, and futures. A lot of these are listed investments or investments with daily liquidity, so our portfolio is not as illiquid as you might think.

We receive employer superannuation contributions every two weeks. We make monthly concessional contributions to Moominmama's superannuation to reach the annual cap on contributions. We contribute USD 10k each quarter to the Unpopular Ventures Rolling Fund and less frequently there will be capital calls from Aura Venture Fund II. I am now receiving TTR pension payments from both Unisuper and our SMSF and contributing more than the total of these back to my superannuation accounts. I made the following additional moves this month:

• I bought 1,100 shares of the IBTC.AX bitcoin ETF. I also did a small unprofitable bitcoin futures trade.
• I bought 500 shares of the QETH.AX ethereum ETF.
• I sold 10k shares of WAM Capital (WAM.AX).
• I bought 2k shares of Regal Investment Fund (RF1.AX).
• I bought 85k shares of Platinum Capital (PMC.AX).
• I sold 73k shares of Cadence Opportunities (CDO.AX).

FIRE?

The university has reopened the voluntary redundancy scheme after saying that there will be no further forced redundancies. It looks like they have increased the payout to 3 weeks pay per year or service instead of two. My simulation shows that it would be a breakeven until the end of 2028 under the assumption I work full time in 2026 and half time in 2027 and 2028. In addition, I now know that I will get a UK state pension. Using the 4% rule, that means I need to save AUD 1/2 million less than I would otherwise need to. 

We don't need to reapply if we applied previously. My previous application was approved. But I said no. So, maybe I can say yes now. Technically, I would be retiring early as I am younger than 67, even though I can get a tax free pension from my superannuation.

2024-25 Taxes

Here is a summary of my 2024-25 Australian tax return (all numbers in Australian dollars):

You can find previous years here. Our expected tax refunds will be lower than last year. In my case, I used up all the carried over capital losses and so have a net capital gain for the first time in a long time. Deductions were down due to reducing margin interest paid. As a result, net income rose 10%. Still below the magic $250k level needed for wholesale investor status based on income. My tax due rose by 14%. As a result my expected tax refund is down to just $610.

Here is a summary of Moominmama's tax return:

She too had a big increase in net capital gain and other investment income. Gross income rose 34% as a result. Deductions only rose by 2% and so taxable income almost doubled! Franking (tax already paid by Australian companies that is stapled to dividends) and foreign tax credits still more than offset the more than tripled gross tax bill and so tax due is still negative but only a quarter of last year's number. So, the expected tax refund is down steeply, but still nearly $8k.

I am still collecting tax statements for our self-managed super fund. It will be a long time till its tax return is submitted by our administrator, SuperGuardian. 

June 2025 Report

I waited for all investment returns for the financial year to be in before posting this report, though, in the end, it didn't make much difference. In June, the Australian Dollar rose from USD 0.6431 to USD 0.6559 meaning that USD investment returns are better than AUD investment returns. Stock markets rose (total returns including dividends):

US Dollar Indices

MSCI World Index (gross): 4.53%

S&P 500: 5.09%

HFRI Hedge Fund Index: 2.36%

Australian Dollar Benchmarks

ASX 200: 1.47%

Target Portfolio: 1.95%

Australian 60/40 benchmark: 1.79%

We gained 0.68% in Australian Dollar terms or gained 2.68% in US Dollar terms. So the only benchmark we beat was the HFRI. We under-performed the target portfolio because our returns for private equity and US stocks were a lot below the benchmark returns.

Here is a report on the performance of investments by asset class:

The asset class returns are in currency neutral terms as the rate of return on gross assets and do not include investment expenses such as margin interest, and so the total differs from the Australian Dollar returns on net assets mentioned above. All asset classes but gold and Australian small cap had positive returns with the strongest rate of return and the largest contribution from Australian large cap.

Things that worked well this month:

• More than AUD 10k gain: Unisuper (19k), Regal Investment Fund (RF1.AX, 12k), Australian Dollar Futures (10k). Also at all time high profits:  PSS(AP) (9k for the month), CREF Social Choice (7k), Acadian (6k), WCM Global (WCMQ.AX, 2k), CFS Imputation (2k).

What really didn't work:

• Gold (-14k). At all time low profits: WAM Capital (WAM.AX, -1k).

Here are the investment performance statistics for the last five years:

The top three lines give our performance in USD and AUD terms, while the last three lines give the same statistics for four benchmarks. This month, we have added the Vanguard 60/40 ETF portfolio to the set of benchmarks. The middle block gives our performance relative to the indices. 

These are now measured from the end of June 2020. Our alpha relative to the ASX200 fell to 3.0% with a beta of only 0.48. We still have much lower volatility, resulting in a information ratio of 1.41 vs. 1.09. We capture much less of the downside moves than the upside moves in the market. We also have very good performance relative to the Vanguard 60/40 portfolio with the same volatility but almost 4% p.a. more return. But as we optimize for Australian Dollar performance, our USD statistics are much worse. We do beat the HFRI hedge fund index in terms of return, but at the expense of much higher volatility. Our USD volatility is at least less than that of the MSCI index, but our return is more than four percentage points lower.

We moved towards our target allocation as I again tweaked the allocation. Our actual allocation currently looks like this:

About 65% of our portfolio is in what are often considered to be alternative assets: real estate, art, hedge funds, private equity, gold, and futures. A lot of these are listed investments or investments with daily liquidity, so our portfolio is not as illiquid as you might think.

We receive employer superannuation contributions every two weeks. We make an annual concessional contribution to Moominmama's superannuation to reach the annual cap on contributions. We contribute USD 10k each quarter to the Unpopular Ventures Rolling Fund and less frequently there will be capital calls from Aura Venture Fund II. I am now receiving TTR pension payments from both Unisuper and our SMSF and contributing more than the total of these back to my superannuation accounts. (around AUD 4k net contribution per month). I made the following additional moves this month:

• Closed investments in Generation Global and Aspect Diversified Futures and switched the money to the Acadian Global Long Short Fund.
• Invested USD 2,500 in a syndicated start up at Unpopular Ventures. In my reporting, all these small investments are reported together with the UV Rolling Fund. Similarly, individual paintings I invested in at Masterworks are all reported together, as are individual property investments at Domacom.
• Sold 1,000 shares of James Hardie (JHX.AX) closing this trade for about an AUD 600 loss.
• Bought 500 shares of the gold ETF (PMGOLD.AX). 
• Net sold 3,250 shares of WCM Global Quality (WCMQ.AX). 
• Bought AUD 45k of the First Sentier Imputation Fund. 

All Time Contributions of Asset Classes

I was wondering how much each asset class has contributed to our total profits to date. It was easy to compute this number using the spreadsheet I use to compute monthly gains on individual investments and asset classes. The numbers are only estimates. For multi-asset class funds, I assume that each asset class in the fund has the same rate of return. So I multiply each asset class share by the total profit for the fund to get the contributions of that fund to total returns for that asset class. This is also how I compute asset class returns each month. Here are the results:

Private equity has contributed the most followed by Australian large cap and gold. Contributions of bonds and real assets are surprisingly large. They may be an artifact of how I compute the contributions from multi-asset funds like our employers' superannuation funds. Also, Commonwealth Bank is all attributed to bonds, when about half my return was from my investment in the Colonial IPO rather than my later investments in CBA hybrids. Finally, 17% of Regal Investment Fund (RF1.AX) is currently in private credit but most of my returns were made before they even invested in private credit! So, this is biased upwards.

Coincidentally, I am changing the name of the Bonds asset class to Credit. Private credit isn't bonds. It isn't even "fixed income". The category covers both private credit and bonds.