Pabrai Funds

Monish Pabrai is a well-known value investor who is often interviewed. He recently launched an actively managed ETF: WAGN listed on NASDAQ. After watching the interview and hearing about the ETF, I was curious about his performance. I found online his investor letter from 2020. PIF2, which started in 2000, returned 15.4% per year up to 2019 compared to the S&P 500's 7.1%. This sounds good, but the fund had extreme volatility, and so its information ratio was 0.54 compared to 0.48 for the S&P 500. You might still want to invest on this basis but PIF3, which started in 2002 returned 10.3% vs 8.2% for the S&P 500 with even higher volatility and PIF4 underperformed the S&P 500 also with extreme volatility. PIF4 has continued this pattern since 2020. The mutual fund and ETF have done well since inception in 2023 but I think it is likely that this pattern of high volatility continues. So, for now, I decided not to invest.

Education Bond Analysis

I've now done some spreadsheet simulations of education bonds. Assuming that our marginal personal tax rate will be 30%, the goal is to pay out fund earnings equal to the 30% tax threshold, which is currently $45k (everything in AUD of course) in each of the three years the children are in university. I assume a nominal fund return of 9% and inflation of 3% per year. I increase the amount saved each year by the rate of inflation. When the children finish university, all the contributions are removed.

For Little My, who is now in school year 1, you need to start by saving $17k in the scheme this year. In the end there will be $241k of contributions. The maximum tax saving over the 3 payout years is $40,600 in total and the management fees incurred over the course of the scheme are $18k. The cost of the management fees is a bit higher than this–about $3-$4k–due to compounding. So, the tax benefit is roughly double the extra cost. However, if Little My earned the equivalent of $18,200 per year–the current tax-free threshold–the tax benefit goes down to $16,500!

For Moomin, who is now in school year 5, you need to start by saving $31,750k in the scheme this year. In the end there will be $282k of contributions. The maximum tax saving over the 3 payout years is $36k in total and the management fees incurred over the course of the scheme are $15,500k. The cost of the management fees is again a bit higher than this due to compounding. So, the tax benefit is roughly double the extra cost. However, if Moomin earned the equivalent of $18,200 per year–the current tax-free threshold–the tax benefit goes down to $14,900.

Here is Little My's analysis:

Of course, if they don't go to uni, but work instead, you pay a whole load of management fees and get into maybe a suboptimal investment for nothing. 

Also, up till now I have assumed that all our income is ordinary income. If instead it is all long-term capital gains–for example from selling gold ETF shares–then the tax benefit is halved and the maximum tax benefit is equal to the management fees. Of course, the 50% capital gains discount might not exist in the future–Labor wants to abolish it. If all our income came from franked dividends, then in the 30% tax bracket we would pay no tax on these anyway and so there would be no tax benefit, just management fees!

P.S. 

It seems unlikely that the two of us would earn more than $270k between us outside of super, but just for completeness, I looked at the case where we are in the 37% tax bracket.  In this case the tax benefit for Little My assuming they don't work and keeping all other assumptions the same, rises to $54k or three times the management fee. But again, if all our income came from capital gains that would only be $27k and if all our income came from franked dividends our tax rate on the grossed up dividend is only 7% after the franking credit or 10% of the net dividend. This means there is only a tax benefit on the first $18.2k paid out for education expenses, which would be negated if Little My worked. So, I don't think I am going to do this.

Education Bonds

I just discovered an investment structure I had never heard of: Education Bonds. These are an Australian investment structure that is similar to investment bonds but with some twists. We have an investment bond in Little My's name at Generation Life. We used it to invest the money he inherited from my mother. 

First, I will describe an investment bond again. It is an investment that pays tax in the fund nominally at 30%. If you hold it for 10 years and then withdraw the money you don't pay any additional tax. If you withdraw it before 10 years you owe tax on the earnings at your regular tax rates but get a 30% tax offset. You can reset the 10 year term by contributing a new investment of more than 125% of the previous year's investment. Why would you want to do that? If your tax rate or a child who you made the beneficiary end up having a tax rate below 30%, you'll pay less tax then if you withdraw the money.

Most of this applies to an education bond too. These are the differences:

1. You can withdraw the contributions without tax or penalty at any time. Only the earnings are locked up for 10 years.

2. You can make a claim to pay for education expenses and withdraw earnings to do so. When you do this, you get the tax paid added onto the amount you withdraw. So, there is no tax in the fund on these withdrawals. This can be done at any time, not just after 10 years.

3. The twist is that the beneficiary whose education you are paying for is liable for tax on the earnings. Children under 18 have very high penalty tax rates (one reason we used an investment bond for Little My). So, beyond the tax-free $416 per year this really wouldn't make sense. Once they turn 18, the regular adult rates apply including the tax free threshold.

4. Here is the really interesting part: You can keep any education bills incurred since you started the education bond and claim them in a later year. So, you could claim school tuition from 2026 in 2036 say!

5. If you withdraw all your contributions and then want to withdraw earnings without valid education bills, the standard investment bond rules apply.

6. The downside is you are limited to the investment options the provider has and an additional administration fee. After all, they have to deal with all these education claims... For Australian Unity this additional fee is 0.7% p.a. 

There are only a few providers and so far Australian Unity seems most attractive. Generation Life don't offer this product.

Basically, this is a way of tax-sheltering some investment income in a similar way to income splitting through a family trust. But it is much more restrictive on investments and possibly has higher fees (our SMSF pays 0.3% p.a.). You are only really going to be directly paying for higher education expenses using this.

For someone in my position, it might make sense after you have maxed out your tax free super pension and you are already above the tax-free bracket of income tax on your non-super earnings, which is true in my case. The problem is that actually trying to reclaim all the children's private school fees during the 3 or so years they are in Uni would push them into the 30% marginal tax bracket, which is probably where I will be myself. If they are working part time they might already use up the tax free allowance (currently AUD 18.2k), which would make the tax savings small. And this is assuming they go to Uni. With these considerations, the 0.7% annual fee, and limited investment options, I am undecided if this is worthwhile.

 

April 2026 Report

Markets rebounded this month, but they rebounded a lot less in Australia than in the rest of the world. This was partly because of a strong rebound in the Australian Dollar from USD 0.6880 to USD 0.7179. Gold fell a little in USD terms and quite a lot in AUD terms. Here is the performance of our benchmarks (total returns including dividends):

US Dollar Indices

MSCI World Index (gross): 10.21%

S&P 500: 10.49%

HFRI Hedge Fund Index (forecast): 2.71%

Australian Dollar Benchmarks

ASX 200: 2.19%

Target Portfolio (forecast): 1.97%

Australian 60/40 benchmark: 2.44%

In Australian Dollar terms we gained 2.88% and in US Dollar terms we gained 7.35%. So we outperformed all AUD benchmarks and HFRI but underperformed relative to the two USD stock indices. Our SMSF gained 4.62%. Unisuper gained 4.49% and PSS(AP) 2.34%. So, we outperformed one of our superannuation benchmarks.

Here is a report on the performance of investments by asset class:

The asset class returns are in currency neutral terms as the rate of return on gross assets and do not include investment expenses such as margin interest, and so the total differs from the Australian Dollar returns on net assets mentioned above. Gold and Australian small cap lost money but all other asset classes gained. Futures were the best performer while hedge funds made the greatest contribution. 

Things that worked well this month:

• Nine investments gained more than AUD 10k: L1 Global Long-Short (GLS.AX, 42k), Unisuper (35k), Australian Dollar Futures (35k), Pershing Square Holdings (PSH.L, 19k), Acadian Global Long-Short (19k), PSS(AP) (15k), Pengana Private Equity (PE1.AX, 15k),  CREF Social Choice (11k), and Hearts and Minds (HM1.AX, 11k).

What really didn't work:

• Only three investments lost money with gold losing 28k.

We moved towards our target allocation. Our actual allocation currently looks like this:

Almost 70% of our portfolio is in what are often considered to be alternative assets: real estate, art, hedge funds, private equity and credit, gold, and futures. A lot of these are listed investments or investments with daily liquidity, so our portfolio is not as illiquid as you might think.

Moominmama receives employer superannuation contributions every two weeks. We also make monthly concessional contributions to Moominmama's superannuation to reach the annual cap on contributions. There will still be capital calls from Aura Venture Fund II and III. I am receiving monthly pension payments from both Unisuper and our SMSF totalling AUD 5,150 per month. I was again less active in the market, making the following investment and trade moves this month:

• I reinvested a distribution at Masterworks and invested USD 2k in another startup at Unpopular Ventures on Angellist. We are no longer subscribing to their rolling fund but will invest a little in promising startups that they syndicate.
• I sold 1,000 shares of PMGOLD.AX (10 ounces) and then bought back in again at a lower price, but not low enough, as the price has fallen more.
• I bought another 10k shares in WAM Alternatives (WMA.AX).

Here are the income and spending accounts * for this month:

Other income includes Moominmama's salary and employer superannuation contributions and totalled AUD 4k as usual. It was a big spending month at AUD 19k due to school fees. This number does not include our mortgage payments, which are regarded here as saving and investment costs. Dissaving amounted to AUD 15k, within the 4% rule limit of AUD 23k. We gained AUD 193k investing, 2/3 of which were was in retirement accounts. They performed better both on the way down and the way up from the March correction than our non-retirement accounts and are now higher than in February. We received lots of dividends with associated franking credits this month. As a result of all this, net worth rose by AUD 162k to AUD 8.309 million. We are about AUD 100k above the beginning of the year, but this is mainly due to the increase in the value of our house.

* Results are shown separately for retirement and non-retirement accounts as well as housing, which nowadays doesn't have much activity. The grey shaded rows are additional notes. Total investment income is split into investment income before exchange rate moves and the contribution of exchange rates. Other income is non-investment income including salaries, employer superannuation contributions, and net tax returns. Investment income is shown pre-tax. Tax credits include franking credits on Australian Dividends and imputed tax on industry superannuation returns and and actual SMSF tax. These are taken away from investment income to get changes in actual net worth. Inheritances include gifts from relatives. Saving is from non-investment income, transfers, and inheritances. 

I Was Never Paid Back My Security Deposit?!

Gradually, over time I am fixing errors in my old accounts. I want to have a reasonably accurate record of investment performance and spending over time, I find solving the mysterious errors challenging, and I get to revisit different times in my life and remember what I was doing. I focus on the months with the biggest known errors. Today, it was the turn of September 2007, the month we moved to Australia. The accounts were pretty messed up. Finally, I worked out that either I was not paid back my security deposit in the US, or I received cash. I can't find any deposit in my bank accounts from the time. It was quite a crazy time, so maybe I just forgot? Intriguingly, in some handwritten accounts from then I recorded the deposit until the end of October and then just dropped it. I didn't mention it in the monthly report on this blog. I've now recorded it as an additional USD 600 of spending in September 2007.

 

The biggest remaining error in AUD terms is AUD 500 in October 2005 and in USD terms $684 in September 2020:

The error is defined as the difference between two different ways of computing the foreign currency component of the monthly change in net worth, which should be equal. This esoteric sounding error translates one to one into income or spending incorrectly recorded or transfers out of some accounts or investments not being matched by transfers into corresponding accounts. Once there were much more significant errors than these as there usually are now at the end of the month before I fix things. 
 

Masterworks Reverses Changes to Secondary Market

I recently reported that Masterworks had redesigned their secondary market. How exactly the new market would work was unclear, but you needed to make a new phone call with them before doing any trading and it seemed that they would send you opportunities to buy shares rather than their being a market with openly posted prices. Now, they have announced via email that they are reversing these changes:

"Hi everyone,

We recently announced changes to how secondary market trading works on Masterworks. We didn't get this one right, and we're sorry for the confusion. Based on your feedback, we've reversed or cancelled those planned changes and the secondary market is back to working the way it did before.

Our goal remains to make the secondary market more effective and user-friendly for all investors. We're continuing to work on improvements and will keep you updated as things develop.

In the meantime, if you'd like help navigating the trading platform, our secondary market advisory services are available to you. You can schedule a call to receive personalized guidance from our team here.

Thank you for your patience and your feedback."

I will take a look and see how things are going before deciding on whether to do some more trades. One of the paintings that I did buy last month has now had an exit above the price I paid, which provides some support for my approach to selecting secondary investments.