Kondratieff Waves and Deflation

Michael Alexander has begun a new series of articles on SafeHaven. His analysis can look a little weird to mainstream economists like me but reading his articles in the past was the first time I really began to understand the Kondratieff Cycle. Of course I was familiar with this long cycle of more than 50 years in economic activity, but none of the previous discussions I had read seemed to be particularly well-informed and it was rather confusing to me. If the theory is valid then the current cycle is longer than previous ones. We are currently supposedly in the deflationary depression part of the cycle in the US - though Japan went through that in the previous decade. Yes, both Alexander and Mike Shedlock think that deflation, not inflation is the threat. I think they are probably right. My big bet on bonds in my portfolio (and my Mom's) wouldn't make sense if I thought we were facing inflation. In inflation interest rates rise and bond values fall. This is what happened from 1966 to 1982 in the US. Since then the reverse has been happening. We believe that the disinflationary cycle is not yet complete. Both these commentators have been marshalling the evidence in favor of this thesis. Everything I see reinforces the suspicion I already had that this is what will happen. Of course this is a hyper-contrarian belief. Most so-called contrarians believe that inflation is greater than government agencies state and that it will rise further. Wall Street orthdoxy is that the economy is strong, the Fed will stop both inflation and deflation etc. Actually, I don't think we will see any significant deflation in the prices of goods or services but little inflation either.

BTW, I finally got the second part of my Federal Tax Refund in my HSBC Online Savings Account. I now have over $11k piled up there exactly balancing my credit card debt. In July I will pay off all those debts before the zero percent offers terminate. I may get balance transfers in the future but will use a lower balance ratio so as not to affect my credit score.