Friday, April 25, 2008

Is the Market About to Break Through Resistance?

The market is very strong. Prices are going up while stochastics are falling:

The market is achieving this by pushing ahead to new highs intraday and then falling back. This means that the market closes lower relative to the now extended recent range and the stochastics which measure price relative to the recent range fall, though price itself is higher than the previous day. Everytime I sell to take profits, the stock seems to go higher (e.g. Apple). Going short is particularly hazardous. Yesterday I made a little money on some SPI puts but happy I closed the position.

SPX and many other indices are bumping up against a major resistance line that provided support last year:

Basic technical analysis says that if the line is breached we should go back to the old highs. With the market this strong, a breakthrough seems likely next week. Now probably the market will fall just to prove me wrong :)

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