I'm not big on this sort of technical analysis and especially Elliott Wave but it is amazing how the CME Bitcoin Futures just touched the line drawn connecting the previous two recent lows forming a perfect Elliott Wave triangle:
Hopefully, it will hold with the halving this week...
P.S. 16 April
The low at E was overshot during the US trading session, but this often happens in these formations. As the low of C was not exceeded the triangle is till valid if you believe the theory. Downward pressure is coming from both the general "risk-off" mood in the financial markets and prior to previous halvings there was also weakness before the event and then a bull market following. Also, Anthony Pompliano points out that Americans have to pay their taxes by today. So, they may be selling Bitcoin to get the cash for their taxes. But the price of bitcoin apparently does need to be higher than this post-halving for miners to breakeven.
1 comment:
While I thought about buying about $5K worth of bitcoin as a purely speculative punt many years ago (when it was around $40), I don't understand it (or how it can be 'valued') so won't touch it as a serious investment category.
A few thoughts:
How many bitcoin did Satoshi mine before releasing the algorithm? There is a finite cap on total BTC that can be 'mined' as part of the design, but as far as I know we have no idea how close to the 'cap' we are (since we know who Satoshi *might* be, and a rough idea of how many BTC he/they sold (but not how many they generated initially and still hold).
What has current 'mining' cost (computer power and electricity) for a NEW BTC got to do with the value of the existing BTC? A lot of the early BTC were effectively free to 'mine'. Hence they were trading at $10 and still were profitable to 'mine' a few years ago.
Anyhow, I'm not sure if it is more probably that BTC will rise 50% or drop 50% from where it is today, so it isn't the sort of 'investment' I would want to put more than a few thousand dollars into. A bit like going into the casino and placing $10K on 'black' at the roulette table...
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