No-Brainer Retirement Contribution

In Australia, if you are between the ages of 60 and 67 and you are retired, you can make concessional retirement contributions even if you aren't working at all.* Why would you want to do that?

A concessional contribution is one you can deduct from your income on your tax return. However, the superannuation fund does have to pay 15% tax on the contribution. If your marginal income tax rate is in the 16% bracket–18% including the Medicare Levy–or above, you will save on total tax paid. For example, if you have a paid-off investment property, you might be earning $30k a year in rent. If you make a $12k contribution to super, you will wipe out your income tax bill. Obviously, this saves a lot more tax if you are in a higher income tax bracket.

Now here is the no-brainer bit. As you are retired, if you want, you can turn around the next day and take the money out of super again! 

Maybe you need the money. But even if you don't need it now, unless you stop your existing tax free pension account and start a new one, which is a hassle, earnings will be taxed at 15% in super, vs. the 0% rate you have engineered outside super. If you've already hit the transfer balance cap, then you won't be able to make your tax free pension account any bigger.

Assuming I retire later this year, I am planning to make a concessional retirement contribution to top my concessional contributions for the year up to $30k. As I will probably be in the 30% tax bracket this tax year, the savings will be worthwhile. But I probably won't take it out again right away, unless I have already hit the transfer balance cap.

* After age 67 you need to meet the "work test" to make concessional contributions. You can continue to make concessional contributions even if you have more than $2 million in superannuation. You can't make non-concessional contributions after you reach that level.

New Thoughts on Keeping Superannuation in Accumulation Mode

A year ago, I wrote a post about whether you should initially keep your superannuation in accumulation mode when you retire. I thought that if you don't need to spend the money in your superannuation accounts right away, it doesn't make sense to pay out that money to sit in regular taxed investments. But I missed one key point. Dividends from what Americans call "taxable accounts" are taxable whether you spend them or not, but capital gains are only taxed if you sell. The more capital gains you realise, the higher tax bracket you are going to be in. Unless you are lucky enough to be able to live on dividends from the "taxable accounts" alone, you are going to have to realise capital gains if you don't have a superannuation pension. 

In my case, I might be able to stay in the 16% tax bracket if I don't need to realize capital gains. So, with tax free superannuation, I will pay very little tax. If I kept my superannuation in accumulation mode, I would be paying an average of 12.5% tax on earnings in superannuation and I would have to realise $80k of capital gains in "taxable accounts" instead of receiving a superannuation pension. That would push a lot of my earnings into the 30% tax bracket.* So, I am planning to put my superannuation accounts into tax-free pension mode and pay out the minimum distribution of 4% a year until I am 65.

With my wife still earning around $45k a year in salary for now, I might not need to do much in the way of realising capital gains outside superannuation.

What about just spending the redundancy payment for the first couple of years? Some of that is going to go into superannuation and the rest will sit in our offset account. The more we spend it, the more mortgage interest we are going to have to pay. Despite that, it might actually make sense to spend that first, but psychologically I prefer a big cash buffer, low mortgage interest, and a steady pension coming in. I can just set and forget the pension from Unisuper.

* Of course, long-term capital gains are only taxed at half the headline tax rate, so the effective marginal rate would be 16% including the Medicare levy.  

Employer Approved My Redundancy Again

I heard yesterday that my employer approved my redundancy under this round of the voluntary redundancy scheme. So, if everything goes smoothly, I will retire 30 November, just before my 61st birthday. I would have gone on leave from 1 December anyway, in order to reduce my surplus leave entitlements.

I am already changing my accounting spreadsheets to reflect this. I have also set all my investments to pay out dividends rather than re-invest them in order to maximize cashflow.

Is a Recession and Stockmarket Crash Coming?

There is lots of talk about equities being in a bubble and that a stock-market crash is coming given that unemployment in the US is edging up (though still low) and the Fed is cutting interest rates. From the bullish camp, Anthony Pompliano posted this chart, yesterday:

The number of central banks cutting interest rates usually peaks at stock market bottoms. We look like we are nearing a peak in this variable, but the stock market has been climbing for a couple of years! Based on history, a stock market crash doesn't seem likely, but this is also weird behavior. On the other hand, in 1997-98 the indicator was in positive territory, though falling and the market went sideways, but there is no clearly analogous period. So, I charted the US federal funds rate against the S&P 500 and MSCI World Index total returns indices:

Now, we can find analogies. In 1998, the Fed cut in the wake of the LTCM collapse, but the market went up. Then in late 2019 the Fed started cutting after the yield curve inverted, but the market kept on rising through January 2020, after which the pandemic hit. So, it seems like we are in a similar though longer period. Regarding yield curve inversion, this is where we are:

This shows the difference between the 10 year and 2 year yield. We are in a normal positive yield curve. If the previous yield curve inversion predicted a recession, we should already be in it. On the other hand, maturities shorter than 1 year are higher than the two year yield:

Note that in 1998, the yield curve briefly inverted and then went positive again. It was back into the negative in February 2000. Going negative again now would be a bad sign.

I previously posted that 2025 felt like 1997. Maybe it's 1998. In either case, the base case scenario is that the market will likely rise for a while longer.

Investors' Returns vs. Fund Returns

Report from Morningstar on investors' returns vs. fund returns. Due to badly timed trading, investors made 1.2% less per year than the funds they invested in. My return in USD terms for the relevant period was 6.83%, which is roughly what the average investor made. My AUD return was 9.81% over the same period!

 

Hopefully, This Isn't True

August 2025 Report

In August, the Australian Dollar rose from USD 0.6433 to USD 0.6540 meaning that USD investment returns are better than AUD investment returns. It was our second highest spending (in nominal terms, January 2015 was the highest) month ever at AUD 27k. School fees and airfares booking coincided. Stock markets rose again (total returns including dividends):

US Dollar Indices

MSCI World Index (gross): 2.51%

S&P 500: 2.03%

HFRI Hedge Fund Index: 0.54% (forecast)

Australian Dollar Benchmarks

ASX 200: 3.30%

Target Portfolio: 0.86% (forecast - depends on HFRI result)

Australian 60/40 benchmark: 1.37%

We gained 1.07% in Australian Dollar terms or 2.76% in US Dollar terms. So we beat all the US Dollar benchmarks but under-performed relative to two of the Australian Dollar benchmarks.

Our SMSF returned 1.31% beating Unisuper (0.75%) but not PSS(AP) (1.35%).

Here is a report on the performance of investments by asset class:

The asset class returns are in currency neutral terms as the rate of return on gross assets and do not include investment expenses such as margin interest, and so the total differs from the Australian Dollar returns on net assets mentioned above. All asset classes apart from private equity had positive returns. US stocks had the greatest return and hedge funds made the largest contribution to total return.

Things that worked well this month:

• The following investments gained more than AUD 10k: Gold (16k), Tribeca Global Resources (16k), Berkshire Hathaway (10k).

What really didn't work:

• Bitcoin lost AUD 14k and 3i 10k.

Here are the investment performance statistics for the last five years:

The top three lines give our performance in USD and AUD terms, while the last three lines give the same statistics for four benchmarks. The middle block gives our performance relative to the indices. 

Our alpha relative to the ASX200 is 2.9% with a beta of only 0.48. We still have much lower volatility, resulting in a information ratio of 1.42 vs. 1.12. We capture much less of the downside moves than the upside moves in the market. We also have very good performance relative to the Vanguard 60/40 portfolio with the same volatility but 4% p.a. more return. We captured 100% of the upside of this portfolio but only 60% of the downside. But as we optimize for Australian Dollar performance, our USD statistics are much worse. We do beat the HFRI hedge fund index in terms of return, but at the expense of far higher volatility. Our USD volatility is at least less than that of the MSCI index, but our return is more than four percentage points lower.

We moved a little bit away our target allocation. Our actual allocation currently looks like this:

About 65% of our portfolio is in what are often considered to be alternative assets: real estate, art, hedge funds, private equity, gold, and futures. A lot of these are listed investments or investments with daily liquidity, so our portfolio is not as illiquid as you might think.

We receive employer superannuation contributions every two weeks. We make monthly concessional contributions to Moominmama's superannuation to reach the annual cap on contributions. We contribute USD 10k each quarter to the Unpopular Ventures Rolling Fund and less frequently there will be capital calls from Aura Venture Fund II. I am now receiving TTR pension payments from both Unisuper and our SMSF and contributing more than the total of these back to my superannuation accounts. I made the following additional moves this month:

• I bought 1,100 shares of the IBTC.AX bitcoin ETF. I also did a small unprofitable bitcoin futures trade.
• I bought 500 shares of the QETH.AX ethereum ETF.
• I sold 10k shares of WAM Capital (WAM.AX).
• I bought 2k shares of Regal Investment Fund (RF1.AX).
• I bought 85k shares of Platinum Capital (PMC.AX).
• I sold 73k shares of Cadence Opportunities (CDO.AX).

FIRE?

The university has reopened the voluntary redundancy scheme after saying that there will be no further forced redundancies. It looks like they have increased the payout to 3 weeks pay per year or service instead of two. My simulation shows that it would be a breakeven until the end of 2028 under the assumption I work full time in 2026 and half time in 2027 and 2028. In addition, I now know that I will get a UK state pension. Using the 4% rule, that means I need to save AUD 1/2 million less than I would otherwise need to. 

We don't need to reapply if we applied previously. My previous application was approved. But I said no. So, maybe I can say yes now. Technically, I would be retiring early as I am younger than 67, even though I can get a tax free pension from my superannuation.