Sunday, August 16, 2026

Role of the Target Portfolio

After yesterday's post, you might think I just randomly change the target portfolio to follow what I want to do. Here is evidence that it has an effect on our performance:

 

This graph shows our portfolio returns each month with the target portfolio return deducted. There is a phase change in 2012. After 2012, our returns hug the target portfolio much more closely. Also, after 2012 we started to make money. I think this has come partly from allocating across asset classes to match a defined allocation. The trend line on the graph rises–we underperformed the target before 2012 and outperformed after–but I'll agree that it doesn't look too convincing. So, we can't say for sure whether this was due to mostly being in a bull market for stocks since 2012 or more disciplined investing.


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