Evening Market Update / Gold Chart

Like the US stockmarket today, Asian stockmarkets opened higher but have reversed at this point after Hong Kong opened at 10pm EDT. Though I am very bearish on stocks I am bullish on gold. Here is a chart the gold ETF GLD in the last two years with my educated guess of the simplest division of the move into Elliott Waves:



The count as posted means that the next move in gold is the third wave of the third wave up since mid 2005. That means that the move since then is less than half complete at this point. 3rd of 3rd waves are often very strong. Even if my exact count since mid 2005 is wrong the chart shows that using E-Wave principles we have to conclude that gold has not yet reached a final bull market peak - up waves must have 5 or 9 (or 13 etc.) subwaves and at the moment we only seem to have 8 at the most - the five subwaves of what I've labelled wave I and then II, 1, and 2. Elliott Wave theory is a very important tool in my technical analysis - both of long term trends and in intraday trading. It takes a lot of experience and skill in pattern recognition to use it properly. I find I get much better results by combining it with other forms of technical analysis and for the longer term analysis combining technical analysis with fundamental analysis and macroeconomics. Most E-Wave practioners think that the latter is tantamount to sacrilege. This doesn't make any sense to me. I also try to understand the relations in the patterns of different markets and securities. In general the more data point in the same direction the more reliable the result is likely to be.