Monday, November 27, 2006

Forex Update

I've been successful so far trading the Aussie Dollar on the long side - making $US814 so far (this is just futures contracts not gains on my actual Australian investments due to the rise in the AUD) - and now I have switched to the short side. I was long one contract and am now short one contract. So I have gone from almost 100% in Australian Dollars portfolio wide to about 50/50 Aussies and Greenbacks. The reason is because my "autoregressive model" gave a sell signal on the Friday close. I don't know how far the down move will go. It seems reasonable that the sharp fall in the US Dollar last week will correct somewhat even if the USD is headed down further after that. And the Aussie does look relatively weak. I've also relabeled my posts about currency trading as "Forex" instead of "Trading" so that they will be easier to find.

P.S. Noon Monday

I sold another AUD contract, taking my AUD exposure down to 23% and USD up to 67% (the rest is in funds exposed to other currencies).

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