At this point the NDX futures are up 5. If this holds or even if the index were to fall 12 points or so today the model is calling for a change of trend from Thursday. If we fall more than 12 points today then Thursday would open with oversold conditions if the index was unchanged from today's close. So that's the roadmap. Cover short positions today unless there is a huge selloff. Everything will depend on the economic data and Fed Beige Book published today.
Update: 10:47am
I did some NQ daytrading and am now holding the short positions with stops in around the day's highs. One theory is that the high today is the top of the B-Wave (in Elliott Wave Theory) of the correction that started on Friday. The big decline on Monday looks impulsive rather than a complete correction and the wave since then looks like an ABC formation. On the other hand, unless things reverse sharply here and the market ends down (which at the moment looks unlikely unless they totally hate the Fed Beige Book at 2pm) the model is saying to get long at today's close. So wait and see for the moment.
Update: 11:49am
The stops were hit while I was commuting and now I am flat. Though the market is off from the level of the stops (always annoying) I will remain flat till nearer 2pm. Have a meeting coming shortly for the next 1 hour or so. NDX could be making an ending diagonal formation intraday and if so it isn't complete.
Update: 2:34pm
Tha market doesn't hate the beige book, but so far it doesn't seem to like it either. I got long - waiting to see if that is the right stance.
Update: 8:29pm
In retrospect I would have been much better off without the stops.... I always have mixed feelings about stops. Sometimes I wish I had them and other times wish I didn't. I sold out of both long positions (QQQQ and NQ) by the end of the day. Will re-establish in the morning.
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