Thursday, December 14, 2006


After the market managed to close up slightly and stay within the triangle the model is still forecasting upside for the next several days. Actually, a higher close would have made the model bring forward the next downtrend to start sooner. If the NASDAQ manages to break out of the triangle to the upside we could expect a significant rally. So I decided to start increasing my beta further. The plan was to buy 4-5 large cap high beta stocks in Australia. So far I only bought 3000 shares of AMP ($A9.58). If the trend is confirmed I will add more positions. What gives me pause and made me put the question mark in the title is that already the All Ordinaries index's rise so far this evening has resulted in a sell signal using my older "autoregressive model". But that model is rather unreliable and this could simply mean that a strong trend is underway.... Anyway best to be cautious. This move takes my portfolio beta up to 1.17 and total borrowing to 28% of net worth. Another of the stocks I was thinking about buying - Wesfarmers - has, of course, run up sharply since I decided not to buy it today :)


Anonymous said...

Thanks for your analysis updates. It is really a choppy market without clear longer term direction, yet. I am still bullish going into next year, but haven't found stocks that meet all the buy criteria.

Good luck on your trading.

mOOm said...

The triangle call has worked out today.... I think the rally could go someways yet into next week. One trick about predicting the market is to not predict too far ahead. About a week at a time is best!