Saturday, December 23, 2006

Santa Rally?

The market has been going up since July so maybe it is rather late in the day to talk about the "traditional" year-end "Santa Rally" in the stock market. But this period from the day before Christmas till a few days after is also a time of seasonal strength in the market. The model was still short going into this morning, but only marginally so and will probably be long by the end of the day. So I went long at NQ = 1775.00. Still trying to work out if that was the right move. More ominously for bulls is that at this turning point we are now clearly out of the persistently overbought conditions that have prevailed in the last few months. All my indicators are now coinciding and indicating a turn here. This isn't the case in the overbought state. So after this short rally be on the look out for a significant downtrend to develop.


Stopped out at 1771.25. I put the stop at the low of the day so far and it was taken out. If I'd just stuck with the model, which was still short, I would have been up... Not sure, may wait till after Christmas to place another trade.

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