I Know What's Going to Happen...

but don't do anything about it.... same story as last week. The model forecast today as a down day, but my read of the intraday (and daily) charts came to the opposite conclusion. So I was hesitant to do anything. If the market stays up near it's current level (13-14 NDX points) the model forecasts Tuesday as an upday. Basically the market is forecasting a favorable FOMC report tomorrow afternoon. I'm pretty sure I can make money from trading on a full time basis but letting my attention drift can be fatal. And I can't fully focus on it. So that's why I'm not acting. I guess that is better than making more losing trades. And losing money makes me nervous and do dumb things.

This upcoming rally seems likely to be very short-lived though. I think it highly likely we are in an ending diagonal or some other topping action that will last much of this month.

On the foreign exchange front, my guess is that the US Dollar has just completed a fourth wave since October and new wave down is getting underway. This wave if it materializes will take the dollar to the support level that has held in the last couple of decades of 80 or so. Some kind of rally would seem likely from that point even if ultimately the support fails, even though I actually think that unlikely. Prices are already very high in Europe relative to the United States. In the end I believe that relative purchasing power will limit moves in currencies. If this is the case, the US Dollar can only keep on falling relative to the Pound and Euro if there is significantly higher inflation in the US than in Europe.