Friday, July 27, 2007

Trying a New Way of Using the "Model"

Just thought of a new way of using my model results and so am going to make a bold prediction for tomorrow.

Direction: Up

Predicted rise in the NDX: 7 points IF today's low of 1955 is not taken out.

But if today's low is taken out then still expect a big bounce before the close.

My modeling approach forecasts the stochastic oscillator which measures where price is relative to the recent range. Today I would have been able to forecast where the stochastic ended up pretty precisely. But because the range extended dramatically to the downside the price could be much lower and still above the bottom of the range. There was a 31 point bounce off the bottom to the close. I am thinking that that is not too hard to forecast but where the bottom will be is not possible...

1 comment:

mOOm said...

That was a total failure - back to the "drawing board".