This one a lot better than the last for me.... The day after the last one is when I started running "the model". I am currently short and added a little bit to the short after the direction of the market got clearer after the FOMC announcement. It was pretty much exactly as expected. The probability of a rate hike was less than 20% and we had one Fed member dissenting and voting for a hike. The others voted to keep rates on hold. And the statement says that future rate hikes will be data driven. Goldman Sachs had been looking for a rise in rates. Given I was short I wasn't worried about that.... So why is the market down - well the technicals are pointing down, which is why I am short. The only other thing might be that dissenting voice. It is hard to think major market participants would be naive enough to think the Fed would confirm that that was the last rate hike.
I am still short and currently expect to be so at least through Friday unless the stochastic goes below 20 in which case the short would continue into next week. Cisco announces after the close today. It is a major NDX stock so could have some effect on the NDX going forward from here.
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