Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Expert Systems vs. Expert Opinion

John Mauldin's latest mid-week newsletter is an interesting exploration of the performance of formal quantitative systems that systematize expert knowledge vs. informal expert judgement. Generally, the formal systems perform better. People also tend to be overconfident of their abilities to make better decisions than the formal systems do. Of course this will depend on how good the quantitative model is. Anyone can make a bad model.

1 comment:

Arctic Monkeys Ace said...

I'm really impressed by your technical wizardry in stockmarket analysis. Firgive me if I stay in the simpler world of property investing. It is less demanding on my brain cells. But good look with your program.

Regards,

Jon