Monday, August 14, 2006

One More Rally?

I am looking for a rally starting either intraday or at the close on Monday on US and most world stock indices. The rally should last a bit longer than a week. I speculate that this will be the final rally before a renewed decline into the Autumn. This is the simplest and most likely scenario for the S&P500:

The levels of these moves are very imprecise - I think the upcoming rally should exceed the recent high at 1293. How far it will go beyond that though is guesswork. Volkmar Hable's latest newsletter concurs with this scenario more or less. He is more vague about what might happen.

PS 4:33pm 14 August

It seems now that the rally got started late on Friday just about where I closed my short position. I went long late this afternoon using call options (September $34) in both my Ameritrade accounts. Kind of dispiriting to see oneself immediately down $400 due to the option spread. Maybe not such a great idea. I did an intraday short trade using 3800 shares at the end but only made $50. That was probably my biggest single financial transaction to date. You can buy a decent house in my town for the value of the closing buy to cover trade, executed at the click of a mouse.

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