Tuesday, November 28, 2006
Trading Update
I've been short NDX for a while and losing money. In strongly overbought situations it is hard to use "the model". Each time it seems to show that the overbought situation is ending there has been a quick reversal back to overbought conditions. A nimble trader could have played these intraday "buy the dip" situations we have been having. Today's down move brings me to about breakeven on the month. The model is now clearly short. Expect more downside. Friday though could be the beginning of a new uptrend. It could get going on Thursday already. Overall though my portfolio is up about 2% so far this month and now beating the market. I fully expect to lose money in Australia in the next few days, though.
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2 comments:
Moom,
Thanks for the update on your model. Looks like the market made me pay for my bullish prediction:-)
My stance for a long time has been a pretty conservative investment portfolio about 50/50 bonds and stocks and these hedge fund like investments with a beta of about 0.4 (100% of my net worth is in there) and short-term trading that swings the beta from about 1 to about -0.2 using leverage. No radical ly bullish or bearish positions. After we see a 10-20% correction then I'll go to a much more bullish core portfolio, by switching all my long-only mutual funds to more aggressive funds. I only want to make a move of that sort every couple of years or so, for tax reasons. I am also holding off my Mom's accounts from making new stock investments in the meantime.
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