Thursday, September 18, 2008

More Sales

Sold SHLD and CNY. Former because it's been strong recently and is very overvalued on a P/E and earnings forecasts basis. Figured that if the market finally turns up instead of imploding it could reverse down. Took a small loss on the trade. Overall I made a little net money on two SHLD trades. Sold CNY because it doesn't look like there is going to be any RMB appreciation now in the near future and Morgan Stanley is being pummeled. It is an ETN and so actually is a debt of Morgan Stanley as I understand it. Took a small loss now rather than a bigger one later. Hard to see Morgan Stanley going broke after yesterday's earnings report but at this rate anything could happen. Yesterday seemed like the bottom and then came today. The VIX volatility index is hitting the levels of the January and March bottoms while the 90 day T-Bill interest rate must be at an all time low. Somewhere there will be a bottom but as usual I was much too early and way too undisciplined. What survives of my portfolio will eventually be managed quite differently I think.

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