Wednesday, July 19, 2006

Bearish Outlook

I went long and lost money and then went short and lost money... Of course if I followed my model and rules precisely I would have stayed short and ended up a little down on the day but not as bad as I was. I kept the short position.

Here is my latest Elliott Wave interpretation of what is happening:

The chart implies that there will be another day or two before a modest upward correction. There will be two more stochastic cycles before we hit bottom though as there should be five waves in total in a wave C which we are now in. So this is very bearish. Will that be the end of the bear market? I don't know. Will update you when I have a more solid idea.

Yahoo reported this evening and its stock is getting totally trashed. This supports my interpretation and forecast.


StealthBucks said...

Moom, I am going long big time but as my time horizon per trade is months not minutes I believe if we are close to the bottom it'll be fine. If I'm off by 2 to even 5% on each position it doesn't matter as long as my expected rally happens as I feel pretty confident it will. A lot of bargains are out in stockville today. I like a lot of big caps at this time. I'll let you know how it goes via the monthly snapshot.

mOOm said...

I am expecting SPX 1100 and NDX 1200 before this is over - Unless there are clear bottoming indications dollar cost average in if you are bullish. My trades are supposed to last a week or two on average. When I think the bottom is in I will then do long-term (at least a year) switching of mutual funds, investment of cash. We aren't there yet.

mOOm said...

Anyone who thinks the market is not predictable - Remember this warning:

My problem is implementing what I see in terms of trades and handling the emotions involved. Of course one can't make 100% predictions. Anything better than 50% is useful though.