Thursday, July 06, 2006

Trading Update

My trading model automatically stopped me out this morning when QQQQ reached 1.25% down. It then fell further and I went long for a daytrade. But I expect to go short before the close. The model is a bit ambiguous today on the forecast for tomorrow, but looking at a bunch of other stuff I have to side with the more negative view. Today's downmove was ostensibly started by the North Korean missile launch putting pressure on the Japanese market. Then some strong economic reports came out this morning in the US, raising interest rate fears again. The model didn't fail today despite prices falling - we can't predict prices and don't try to. The stochastic oscillator I am forecasting will end the day up, validating the forecast. The stop loss helped boost my returns above those of the market. Perhaps I should have reversed to short when the stop was hit. But you can't win them all.

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