Friday, July 21, 2006

Trading Performance Update

Since I have been using the model the NASDAQ 100 Index is down 7%, the model is up 3%, and my account is at... zero. Actually, this is not so bad - I beat the market by 7% and captured 70% of the model's excess return over the market. Over time, I hope my trades will capture more of the model's returns as I get used to using it. Of course, if you were in cash you also would make close to zero percent over this period. But if the market had instead gone up you wouldn't have beaten the market. Today the market corrected much of the recent rally. I am predicting a 4 day rally through Wednesday which might take the QQQQ's to $37.50 (optimistically). This evening the market is reacting well to the Microsoft earnings report and negatively to Google who beat their numbers but.... There were wild fluctuations in GOOG following the announcement. I think this is because Google has such a lot of numbers computed in non-GAAP ways as well as according to GAAP in its earnings report and traders get very confused.

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