Real House Prices in Australia

Following up from yesterday's post I downloaded data on the Australian consumer price index and computed series for real (inflation adjusted) house price indices:



These series, like those I posted yesterday are for established houses only (not new houses). I used the specific consumer price indices for each city. The next graph shows the real year on year rates of change in hosue prices:



The average growth rates over the entire period for each of the cities is as follows:

Sydney 3.0%
Melbourne3.0%
Brisbane 4.0%
Adelaide 1.3%
Perth 5.0%
Hobart 2.7%
Canberra 2.3%

But as we can see readily from the charts the average rates for 1986 to 1999 were much lower than this:

Sydney 2.3%
Melbourne 0.5%
Brisbane 0.4%
Adelaide -2.7%
Perth 0.6%
Hobart -2.0%
Canberra -1.5%

Only the boom from the beginning of 2000 lifted the real rates of price change into the black for all cities. EnoughWealth's comment that the real rate of increase for Sydney is between 2-3% is accurate, but it's not true of other Australian cities if we assume that the 2000 boom was an anomaly. Based on the 1986-1999 period and what has been seen historically in US housing markets I'd bet that the true long term rate for other Australian cities is less than 1%. In the next few years I'd expect it to be even lower as prices revert to the mean trend. Of course I could be wrong and the other cities might instead continue to perform like Sydney. Theoretical this could happen if the supply of desirable locations is restricted in the future. When supply of land is restricted we should expect land prices to rise at the same rate as the rate of economic growth. This is what appears to be happening in Sydney. But desirable locations are not as restricted in the other capital cities.

Australian House Prices

I put together this chart of house prices for the six Australian State Capitals and Canberra from the official government data:



There is also data available for Darwin but it was too erratic and Darwin is so small that I dropped it. And I also computed the year over year rates of change:



Next, I'll try to come up with the real changes in house prices adjusted for inflation in the prices of other goods and services. That will give a better idea of what we might expect in the future. General inflation was much higher in the late 1980s than recently and so the average rate of house price appreciation over this period is misleading I think.

After the initial subsidence in prices around 1990 there was an "echo boom" that was more noticeable in some cities, particularly the smaller ones. And, again, recently the rate of price increases subsided or prices fell absolutely (in Sydney in particular) but now we are in a new period of house price inflation, especially outside of Sydney. The echo boom in Perth is much greater than the initial boom there. This is entirely related to the boom in the mining industry.

I've noticed that there is a four year cycle in the US housing market, just as there is in the US stock market. It seems this same four year cycle could be present in Australia, superimposed on the longer 16 year cycle. By this interpretation, we are now near the peak of a four year cycle and should see a reduction in the rate of increase in prices over the next couple of years. 2009-10 could be a good time to buy a house.

Quant Fund Meltdown Autopsy

The autopsy of the quant fund meltdown in the last weeks is beginning. In this article, Clifford Asness of AQR is quoted as saying: “We have a new risk factor in our world.” What is that factor? - some stocks are heavily owned by similar funds and others are heavily shorted by the same funds. This is an example of the "fallacy of composition" in economics. Something that works for one player at the microlevel does not neccessarily work for everyone at the macrolevel. For example, some traders have skill and are profitable but not all "traders" can profit (of course, if hedgers lose speculators could all win). Here one small fund could liquidate and exit the market profitably but not all can do this simultaneously.

TFS Capital has been looking at what factors were most responsible for the recent fall in value of quant long-short funds. They have put out a press release on their research. They identify short-covering rather than selling of long positions as the primary factor. And the stocks with the highest "short interest" - the most shorted saw the biggest moves. In other words it was a classic "short squeeze". I guess one could theorize that if a long-short fund liquidates all its positions it would be selling the long positions into relative strength as these are stocks that were identified as being good investments. Long term investors likely wouldn't panic and also sell these stocks due to the price falling a little. On the other hand covering its short positions would cause a scramble by other short-sellers to cover too. The good thing about identifying this factor is that the level of short interest in each stock is published monthly and could be included in a quantitative model. I guess one could try to track the holdings of similar hedge funds on the long side, but these are published quarterly with a lag so that data is less useful.

The bottom line is that many of these funds will rebound in value from this debacle and will have learnt from the experience and improved their strategies. In retrospect this "black swan" looks very predictable. But things are always easier in hindsight. For the individual investor it means that some of these funds are likely good values for investment now and also that if you are shorting stocks yourself monitor very closely any stocks which have high short interests.

Fed Cuts Discount Rate by 1/2 Percent

The Fed made a "surprise" cut in the discount rate - the rate it lends to banks at - of 1/2 percent this morning. The stock futures went crazy to the upside (NDX up 40 points). Interestingly, 10 and 30 year bonds futures fell sharply indicating expectations of higher future inflation. The Fed has not moved their main target the Federal Funds Rate. Yesterday, 90 day T-Bills were trading at yields in the mid 3% range. I think this is due to some money market funds having problems due to investing in short term corporate bonds that have fallen sharply in value or mortgage related instruments. Even those yields are rising today. Interesting that the Fed chose options expiry day to take this action...

Leaving Retirement Account with my Employer

I decided to leave my 403b account with my employer and invested in TIAA-CREF. Often I read about how this is a bad idea. But TIAA-CREF is a good (and cheap) fund manager. And foreign employer sponsored retirement accounts are exempt from Australian taxation as long as distributions are not taken. Distributions are subject to regular income tax just like a 401k or 403b is treated by the US IRS. A US IRA is (mostly) taxed just like a regular taxable account by the ATO (Australian Taxation Office).

The retirement specialist told me that retaining the account with them does not preclude rolling over the account at some later date to an IRA. Also they allow all of the distribution methods that TIAA-CREF facillitate. Not all employers do. And apparently there is no paperwork to complete.

Carry Trade Unwinding

The "carry trade" is where investors borrow in low interest currencies and invest in currencies with high interest rates, pocketing the spread. The main low interest rate currency has been the Japanese Yen and one of the main high interest currencies the Australian Dollar (AUD). In recent months the Australian Dollar soared higher and higher and the Yen mostly lower. In the current financial crisis the process is reversing and the Aussie has fallen around 10 US cents from its peak. It's down 3.5 US cents overnight, which is a massive move in a currency:



This is having a massive impact on my net worth measured in US Dollars as around 2/3 of my net assets are in AUD related investments. At this point in the month my rate of return on investment is -9.7% and net worth has fallen $US 47,000 from last month. In AUD terms, though, the return is -1.6% and net worth is off only $A 12,000. In USD terms this is the worst drawdown since the big bear market in the early part of this decade. But in Australian Dollar terms it is nothing remarkable. I lost more in June 2006 for example: -3.3%.

I am sufferring some big losses on investments, however, especially in the Everest Brown and Babcock Hedge Fund of Funds (EBI.AX) and the management company (EBB.AX). The latter has halved from its peak. I really should have sold some when it was so overvalued. I guess irrational exuberance and a dislike of paying taxes overtook me.



As for the fund of funds itself - it trades as a closed end fund on the Australian Stock Exchange and so the stock price can trade at a discount to NAV which is only announced monthly. Undoubtedly some of the hedge funds in the portfolio have suffered losses in the current market conditions. But I doubt this justifies the steep fall in price relative to the end of July net asset value. NAV was $A4.06 on July 31st. Yesterday, the fund traded as low as $A2.48 before ending up.

Many people claim they wish to emulate Warren Buffett and buy like crazy when prices are below intrinsic values. I have been doing some of that in recent weeks but have been wary that prices could fall lower. So I haven't been "buying like crazy". It's hard in practice to actually put such a plan into action when the time comes.

Wednesday Effect

The model was signalling to go long tomorrow. However, today is Wednesday which tends to be an up day in the markets. I was just searching for the link where I read about that statistically significant effect but I can't find it. Anyway in the last few years the market tends to go up on Wednesday. So I added a rule, that if the model is short on a Wednesday and Thursday is predicted to be long then I should go long on Wednesday. It improves the results. Just going long on Wednesday willy nilly, however, reduces returns. The reason for this is that on about half of all Wednesdays the model will be long anyway and that is a substantial part of the Wednesday effect. On the other half of Wednesday when the underlying model is short it is sometimes right and sometimes wrong. The times it tends to be wrong is when the signal is turning to the long side at the end of Wednesday anyway.

PS 4:25PM

The Wednesday effect obviously didn't work today though early in the day it looked like it was and I went long and made a profit. Then I went short, ditto. Then I went long near the close and the market kept falling. Then my internet connection went haywire :( I was stuck in the losing position and couldn't get out of it. When things were back to normal I was down more than 10 NQ points. There was a post-close bounce of sorts... deciding what to do now.

Buy: Symbion Health

The ACCC (Australian Competition Commission) approved the merger of Symbion Health (SYB.AX) and Healthscope (HSP.AX) today. Yet Symbion's share price is languishing below the implied value post takeover. Healthscope's price would have to fall considerably to make Symbion's current price a fair value. I guess people are concerned about just that and whether the whole deal will fall through in the current credit constrained environment. Another potentially disturbing factor is the stake that Primary (PRY.AX) has been building in Symbion. Anyway, I decided to do a bit of merger arbitrage and double my position in Symbion. At this point this is shaping up to be my worst month in terms of investment return since April 2005 when I suffered an 8.6% loss. That event got me to be more proactive again in investing in trading after letting things ride for a while. It was a great ride in the two years up to that point but this loss was a reminder that risk hadn't gone away. Apart from the generally negative direction of the markets I am being hit by the fall in the Australian Dollar and by the debacle in quantitative long-short fund strategies which is affecting several of my holdings directly or indirectly. In Australian Dollar terms this month is not particularly bad so far (but still negative).

Tourist Visa

I got my tourist visa or rather "visa waiver" and am back in the US in Snork Maiden's town. They asked me a lot of questions and I showed them my outbound itinerary to Australia, my resignation letter etc. I was the last one back on the bus. That's a relief. When I arrived some Egyptian guy was waiting and he was still waiting when I left. Next step in the moving plan is dealing with all the administrative stuff like changing addresses with financial institutions etc. I'm thinking now to exit my apartment at the end of August (I'll give them some excuse about visas) and fly back here and then on September 12 fly back to my hometown - I have a hotel booked for that night there anyway - and then on September 13th fly out to Australia. The flight would be cheaper than rent and utiltiies for another month. We can't reschedule the flight to leave from here (Snork Maiden town).

On another note, volatility in the stockmarket has now declined to a level where I am much more comfortable trading again. It hasn't been a matter of the daily moves but the intra-hour volatility or intra-5 minute volatility even. Now it is much easier to figure out where the market will be heading in the next few minutes. I am beginning to try more trades and make more money at them again.

Montreal

I'm in Montreal. I took the Greyhound Bus up from Burlington, VT this afternoon. I told the Canadian Immigration agent the whole story - how I was an H1B, quit my job, and was planning on re-entering the US tomorrow. She took my I94 (the little form that gets stuck in foreigners' passports when they enter the US) and let me in to Canada. So, so far, so good. This is actually my first blog post from outside the US. Haven't been out of the US or off the east coast for a while now. Since December 2005 actually. I usually travel more than this. The hotel I'm staying at is called: Hotel Montreal Espace Confort. It is just around the corner from the bus station on Rue St Denis, which is one of the nicer streets in Montreal. I'm not a big fan of Montreal - this is my fourth visit here. I get hung up on the language issue. If I speak English people often seem grumpy and annoyed and if I try to speak French they speak back in English. I can't win. I liked Quebec City more. France itself is a whole other story at least away from Paris. Most people I met there were happy I was trying to speak to them in French. Anyway, the hotel is very new, clean, modern design, and a good price in a good location. If you are happy to share a bathroom you can get it for $C50. I paid $C89 for a better room. There's an even more frugal option for this exercise - do the round trip by bus in one day - it's only 2 1/2 hours each way. But I didn't feel like doing this and thought it best to leave the country on the day I officially quit and then come back the next day in case there were any complications.

Submitted New Resignation Letter

I just now e-mailed in a new resignation letter with a resignation date of 13th August. I also e-mailed HR to ask if there is anything I need to do regarding my H1B. I want to keep it with TIAA-CREF for the moment. I booked a hotel in Canada for Monday night and will take the Greyhound bus up there. Tuesday, I will try to return to the US as a tourist. We will see what will happen.

Back to Visa Issues Again

The HR Department at my university won't approve my leave due to concern that immigration will take a "dim view" of it. The head of HR gave two options: Appoint me to a fixed term appointment from 1 July 2007 to 13 September 2007 or that I resign retroactively from 30 June and do the "B Visa", which practically means leaving the country and trying to re-enter again as a tourist. The problem with the first option is that I might need a new H1B. So now I've e-mailed the lawyer again on that. If it does need a new visa, it's not a practical route. Likely I will end up having to try to go to Montreal and back... At least now all the stuff I want to ship to Australia is on its way and Snork Maiden would "just" have to drive 150 miles each way to pick up the rest of my stuff if I got stuck outside the country. Everything else could be handled from there.

EBI Management Ponder a Buyback

I'm not the only one who thinks this investment is a bargain:

7 August 2007

ASX RELEASE

Everest Babcock & Brown Alternative Investment Trust (EBI)

EBI applies to ASIC for relief to conduct buy-back

Following the announcement of an unaudited net tangible asset backing per unit (NTA) of $4.06 as at 31 July 2007, the responsible entity of EBI announces that it is considering conducting an on-market buy-back of EBI units. It has today applied to ASIC for the appropriate relief.

As at close of 6 August 2007 the market price of an EBI unit was $3.18 being a 22% discount to the July NTA and EBI believes that a buy-back would be an efficient use of capital which would generate unitholder value.

Any buy-back is subject to ASX consultation, ASIC relief and potentially (depending on size) unitholder approval. At the time ASIC relief is obtained, the responsible entity of EBI will review the discount between the EBI unit price and its NTA and will determine its next course of action.

************************************************************************************************

The current undervaluation started with the botched capital raising in April. The capital raising raised the desired funds but resulted in a loss of net asset value to those who did not participate. This included me - I wasn't allowed to participate because I was a foreign investor. The loss of value as a result of the capital raising was very unfair. The stock price plummeted even further. More recently as hedge funds have changed from being the investment du jour to being very out of favor the discount to net tangible assets (NAV) has widened considerably.

Two More Buys

I bought one share of Berkshire Hathaway B (BRKB) @ $3615 and one hundred of Safety Insurance (SAFT) @ $33.26. I thought that Berkshire had another great quarterly report and it was time to double my position. SAFT is a stock I noticed a long time ago and occasionally checked in on but never bought. The negative for this stock is its position as a regulated insurer in the Massachusetts market is coming to an end. The positive is that the P/E is very low and the stock is trading at about book value. The big sell down in recent months has followed other financials and I expect is due to fears that the stated book value is not the true value of net assets when all assets are actually marked to market. It doesn't seem though that this firm's investment portfolio is signifcantly affected by these kind of issues.

Buying at a 28% Discount to NAV

Just bought another 2000 units of EBI - the listed Australian fund of hedge funds - at $A2.92. Today the manager announced that NAV for the end of July was $A4.06 per unit and the fund lost 0.25% in July. They also emphasized that they don't have any investments in mortgage funds. I guess investors might be concerned that the fund is structured using a total return swap. But otherwise this 28% discount to NAV seems a bit overdone.

House Prices and Interest Rates

Mortgage borrowing conditions are getting much tougher and interest rates, especially for large mortgages, seem to be going up. An interesting paper on Irish house prices uses a new approach to model the relation between interest rates and house prices. Most previous macro approaches (including my own published research on house prices - I worked as a real estate market analyst back in 1990) found a small effect for interest rates. They contrast this research with the "finance approach" which takes a very similar approach to my recent blog posts in comparing house prices to rents and alternative investments. The finance approach finds a strong effect for interest rates but can't model the effects of demographics etc. The new approach which combines elements of both finds that if interest rates had been 2% higher in Ireland than they were in fact, then house prices would have been 22% lower. A 25% cut in house prices in high end markets does not seem too extreme. It's already happened in some places like Florida.

Weekly Trading Report

In the first three days of this month the NDX is down 0.7% and my trading accounts down1.1%. The model is up 0.52% because it would have stopped out once the market fell 1.25% this afternoon. I'm losing money at a slower rate than last month, which I guess is a good thing :P

Looking forward to Monday a lot of people seem to expect the market to continue to fall or even crash 1987 style. From my modeling this seems rather unlikely. My best analog for Monday is January 29th this year where the stochastic fell but the market ended up slightly. This is my working E-Wave scenario, which is rather bullish for early next week:



i.e. there should be a "C wave" up following the B down, which would likely exceed the top of the "A wave". On Tuesday the Fed has a chance to say something. This could be a critical juncture for the market. Unfortunately I won't be able to trade at that time.

My Interactive Brokers account was down $603 or 3.53% for the week if I don't count the open position I had over last weekend. If I do count that position then I was up about $400 this week. For the week the market was down 1.9% and the model up 0.2%.

I updated an analysis of the performance in this account relative to the NDX using weekly data:



As you can see from the chart I have a negative beta to the market - actually a beta of -1.6. I'm too bearish - ideally I would have a zero beta as this is meant to be a market neutral strategy. My weekly alpha is 2.6% which is where the regression line crosses the y-axis. This alpha has a t-statistic of 1.59 which is significant in a one-tail test at 5.9%. On average I made 2.1% per week while the NDX went up 0.3% per week. Taking into account volatility the NDX had a Sharpe Ratio of 0.69 while the account had a Sharpe Ratio of 1.37. Here again is the data, which shows why I persist in the face of recent negative performance. I know I can outperform the market with a fairly low probability that my results are just random.

On the net worth front I am down $16,500 already this month. $11k of that is due to investment/trading performance. The rest is mostly the moving bill.

Trying too Hard to Make Money

I'm still trying too hard to make money and end up geting into lower probability trades with too large a position and losing. This week my account has been swinging up and down erratically as I make money and then try to make more and instead lose more. But I feel like things are getting under control. At least I know what I am doing wrong. Alternative investments continue to be hit hard. On a more positive note, the movers came this morning. We had planned on doing a "priority load". First load all my boxes of books and stuff and my custom made desk and then see if another two pieces of furniture would fit in the dimensions of the lift van (the huge crate my stuff will be packed into that will be placed inside the shipping container with other people's lift vans. The guys decided they would and so we are plus one futon on what I thought we'd be taking to Australia. Of course I gave them a tip!

Snork Maiden said that one of her friends was impressed by how easily I walked away from my past - for example quitting my job and giving up on the green card quest. It certainly wasn't easy but I try to rationally decide what is going to make me happiest in the long-run and I think the plan we are now embarking on has more good possible outcomes than not doing it. Maybe my training as an economist helps. Many people seem to do things because that is what everyone else is doing or it is what they have always done up till now. Of course, in many areas of life it makes sense to use "rules of thumb" to make routine decisions. But the big choices in life are worth deeper thought.

Is That a Hedge Fund? Ouch!

Anything that might be a hedge fund, mortgage fund, or have leverage is getting sold. In some cases this is somewhat rational. Case in point: Newcastle. This is a mortgage fund run by a hedge fund company. They do have sub-prime loans and lots of leverage. But subprime loans are a minority of what they have and they have sold off a lot of what they bought in CDOs (but retained some of the worst bits). The majority of their mortgages though are commercial mortgages. Cramer listed NCT in his "dirty dozen" and a Citigroup analyst downgraded the stock yesterday. It's dividend yield has gone up to 16%. Today, the company will report its second quarter earnings. Hopefully, they will give some forward guidance.

Less rational is the selling of the Everest Brown and Babcock fund of hedge funds listed in Australia. This stock is a closed end mutual fund invested in around 20 hedge funds via a total return swap that includes leverage that is equivalent to taking on a one to one margin loan for each dollar invested. The last reported net tangible assets was $A4.07 a share and last night the stock closed at $A3.05. The company has announced that the funds they invest in have no exposure to the subprime market. The yield is 22%.

Roadmap for the Correction

This is my best guess of how to interpret what has happened so far in the SPX and what might happen next, based on my idea that the correction needs to run for a while longer. Until the economy looks really much worse, though, it's hard to see a much steeper decline. I ripped this chart off of Macro Man's blog and then modified it.

PS

I did OK trading today up $300 or so. It all came in the final rally.

July 2007 Report

This is my net worth and investment performance report for July. All figures are in US Dollars unless otherwise stated. This month saw the first negative investment performance in 10 months (in USD terms), bad trading results, and a small decline in net worth.

Income and Expenditure



Expenditure was $2,113 - this month there were no moving expenses. Current non-investment income mainly consisted of a refund from the IRS. I'm no longer receiving a salary or making retirement contributions. Non-retirement accounts lost $1797 but would have lost $3923 if it were not for the continued lift from the Australian Dollar. Retirement accounts gained $288. I've introduced a new entry this month: "retirement tax credits". As I've explained, I measure all investment performance on a pre-tax basis including my Australian supperannuation account. Unlike US retirement accounts the returns on Australian retirement accounts are taxed at source but at a concessional rate. In order to compute the actual gain in my superannuation account after tax to get the change in net worth I need to take out the tax paid. This month the account lost in Australian Dollar terms so the tax adjustment is negative.

Net Worth Performance
Net worth fell by $US356 to $US444,932 and in Australian Dollars lost $A6615 to $A517,784. Non-retirement accounts were at $US244k. Retirement accounts were close to $US201k.

Investment Performance
Investment return in US Dollars was -0.34% vs. a 1.50% loss in the MSCI (Gross) World Index, which I use as my overall benchmark and a 3.17% loss in the S&P 500 index. Non-retirement accounts lost 0.73%. Returns in Australian Dollars terms were -1.48% and -1.91% respectively.



The S&P 500 is barely beating a savings account so far this year.

The contributions of the different investments and trades are as follows:



The returns on all the individual investments are net of foreign exchange movements. Foreign currency gains appear at the bottom of the table together with the sum of all other investment income and expenses - mainly net interest. I can't see any patterns at all in these results - the best gains and worst losses both came from futures trading.

Progress on Trading Goal.

Asset Allocation
At the end of the month the portfolio had a beta of 0.59. Allocation was 34% in "passive alpha", 64% in "beta", 6% allocated to trading, 6% to industrial stocks, 6% to liquidity, and I was borrowing 16%. My Australian Dollar exposure was steady at 62% from 69.5% in January.

Trading Results for July

I lost $3067 in trading in my US accounts. That's 13.61% of the capital allocated to trading. That's the second worst performance since I started recording this data in July 2006. In October 2006 I lost $5952 which was 14.33% at the time. The theoretical model gained 3.22%, which is a weak performance. I tend to perform poorly when the model performs weakly:



The NASDAQ 100 index declined 0.11% in July. The S&P 500 Index feel about 3% and MSCI World Indices fell around 1.5%. Seems like my overall investment return will be only slightly negative for the month in US Dollar terms.

Volatility

I was doing well trading this morning and was up about $400 and then for some dumb reason tried to trade again this afternoon. Things went crazy when American Home Mortgage imploded and I lost About $1000. Bad day to end a bad month of trading. I don't have the final figure yet but it's probably going to be the second worst in the last 13 in both dollar and percent terms and ends a run of 6 profitable months. The only consolation is that it was worse even a few days ago and I did manage to claw some back. These latest losses also were at least when I was trying to trade according to the model more or less. The less is because I really shouldn't try to position myself according to the model in a new position till near or after the close of trading as the model has only been tested based on placing trades at the close (and overnight trades).

Investment returns for the month will also be negative. That's not surprising as the stock market has gone down. And, therefore, net worth is down too.

Some good news today, is that Snork Maiden got her Australian visa approved. It has been such a pleasure working with Australian immigration compared to dealing with US immigration. No lawyers required. Everything can be done online. There are online updates on the state of your application etc. Last night though we got a message that the visa was approved but would be granted on September 25th. We are flying to Australia on the 13th and arriving there on the 15th. So we e-mailed the person who had e-mailed us to inform us of the approval. It probably helped that Snork Maiden's employer had checked with immigration earlier that this entry date would be OK and we attached that e-mail. The same day the message came back that the visa would be valid from the 11th instead. This is just another planet from the experience of people applying for US visas. On the other hand, Australia is extremely tough on illegal immigrants of which there are not many.

Recovery

I fixed the damage caused to my futures account on Friday and then some. HIgh volatility in today's session was very useful for this purpose. I traded NQ and ES on and off. My US stock account is also doing fine mainly due to a rebound in Interactive Brokers. I expected a bounce today based on my modeling, examining historical parallels, and reading blogs etc. The question is whether this is the beginning of a corrective wave that does not exceed the July high in the indices and then there is another wave down in the correction (or more) or whether we now rally to new highs. Based on E-Wave, other chart analysis, and my model output I am leaning to this being a corrective wave followed by a similar size second corrective wave. It's possible to view the action in the SPX and Dow in June and July as an E-Wave "flat correction". This could be a complete correction labeled iv here:



But looking at the stochastics it seems more likely that there is more of iv to come. Wave ii lasted a long time but didn't result in much downmovement. The "Law of Alternation" suggests that there should be more downmovement in this correction. One possibility is a complex correction with 3 waves down complete, 3 waves up to come and then another 3 down (WXY). After that we would need to rally to new highs to complete the bull market since 2002.

Of course since E-Wave is so subjective lots of other scenarios could be equally valid. In the longer term E-Wave often seems more useful after the fact.

This scenario explains why bearishly oriented traders and investors have been wrong for so long. Wave 5, the final wave of the bullmarket, extended tremendously after getting started in late 2004. Every time the bull market has seemed ready to come to an end another wave has appeared. Of course, the most bearish forecasters, such as Robert Prechter, have assumed for most of this period that we were not in a bull market at all. Action in non-US markets such as Australia convinced me that that was incorrect fairly early on.

That Was a Bad Idea

It was a very bad idea to put so much reliance on an essentially untested or minimally tested model. The progress in winning back some profits in the last few days has been reversed. I have now done some more testing of this new idea and while the results are interesting it is far from a panacea. I don't understand why I trusted this model today to the point that I lost a pile of money in the final collapse of the market at the end of the day. Up to that point things were going well, but I was convinced the bounce should continue. And then I guess I froze in disbelief. Very bad behavior. The Australian Dollar has also been falling in the last couple of days. I now have a negative return overall for the month and not just for trading which was a given. The only consolation is I'm not doing as bad as the market is. It's been a good run in the last several months up till now.

Trying a New Way of Using the "Model"

Just thought of a new way of using my model results and so am going to make a bold prediction for tomorrow.

Direction: Up

Predicted rise in the NDX: 7 points IF today's low of 1955 is not taken out.

But if today's low is taken out then still expect a big bounce before the close.

My modeling approach forecasts the stochastic oscillator which measures where price is relative to the recent range. Today I would have been able to forecast where the stochastic ended up pretty precisely. But because the range extended dramatically to the downside the price could be much lower and still above the bottom of the range. There was a 31 point bounce off the bottom to the close. I am thinking that that is not too hard to forecast but where the bottom will be is not possible...

Five Years Ago Today

I moved back to the US from Australia and now we are on the verge of moving back to Australia again. I produced a NetWorthIQ style snapshot of where things were at then and now:



Apart from the sevenfold increase the big difference is how levered I was back then. My debt was 242% of my non-retirement net worth, which was only $22,597. Non-retirement net worth has risen much more than the retirement accounts. Apart from credit card debt I had $38,540 in a margin loan and $12,502 I owed to my mother. I took on the debt to avoid selling all my shares and funds at the bottom of the market. I just about made it through with a positive net worth.

The Australian Dollar was only worth 54 US Cents back then and now it is at 87 US Cents.

The Model Missed This One

But Oscar was calling for an up day too, so I wasn't the only one. I made some money on the long side and then just when I realized that the market was going to really go down hard I had a bad trade losing just over $200 a contract. Could have been a lot worse today. The model is still predicting up for tomorrow and for a few days after that. Anyway, by the end of the day NDX was only down 1.22% which is slightly less than the model's 1.25% stop. So it wasn't that wrong in the end. Was looking to see if there was some way to predict what happened today, but I only found one past instance when the model "failed" in the exact same way - predicting up when the stochastic was above 20 but instead the stochastic fell the next day below 20 which is the oversold zone. So there wasn't anything I really could learn from that. And by the end of the day the model hadn't actually failed - the stochastic ended the day above 20.

I've tried to avoid making any bigger predictions about the market recently as the market has generally confounded any bearish predictions in recent years. Still the move down from the recent highs is a very nice impulse wave in Elliott Wave theory - a five wave move. If there is any validity in E-Wave theory then that won't be the entirety of the decline. After an upside correction we should expect to see at least another five waves down again.

The Returns from Housing

Following up from my recent posts I thought it would be useful to write down a simple equation that really sums up a lot about the decision of whether to buy a house or not: Rate of Return = Rent Yield - Costs/House Price + Rate of Appreciation The return from owning a house is the rent you would otherwise have to pay minus costs that include insurance, maintenance, and property taxes plus the gains in the price of the property. I'm not including mortgage interest here so I can compare the return on a house with the return on other unlevered investments. The investment decision comes down to whether this rate of return is higher or lower than the return on other investments with similar levels of risk (yeah it is more complicated than that as I'm ignoring the correlation with other assets etc.). Rates of return in bubble areas such as most of California, the coastal Northeast US, Sydney Australia, and probably the UK among many others can only be high enough to pass the investment hurdle if the rate of expected price appreciation is high enough. Enough Wealth pointed out in a comment on one of my posts that high end real estate can appreciate in the long-run faster than the rate of economic growth, but it is hard to imagine that the average house can. In fact Robert Shiller's research has shown that the average house in the US has appreciated slower than the rate of economic growth in the long-run. It is very likely that prices have overshot and that future rates of appreciation will not be as high as in the recent past. In order to restore equilibrium house prices have to fall in order to raise the expected future rate of return. This is the housing bubble argument in a nutshell. So what about mortgage interest? It makes sense to borrow money to buy a house if the expected rate of return (assuming no uncertainty in this return) is greater than the interest rate on the mortgage. And this only if you have passed the investment return hurdle. I think this makes sense though I'm kind of thinking out loud :)

Wednesdays

Maybe I should add this to my model? That is a huge effect not to be arbitraged away already. Weird.

Housing Simulation for Canberra

I plugged the actual numbers for our own situation into my housing simulator. These include a 7% mortgage rate current in Australia, Snork Maiden's salary, and our current net worth. I'm assuming a 10% downpayment, a house price of $A500k and rent of $A400 per week. Buying would cost us all of Snork Maiden's salary at first vs. about 40% on rent. It would only make sense if prices appreciated at 7% per year indefinitely. Maybe prices have historically risen at that rate in the recent past, but can they continue to do so? The average Canberra house would cost $A3.8million in 30 years time and rent would be $2800 a week. Adjusted for inflation at 3% these are $A1.6million and $A1200 per week in today's money. In the long-run real GDP per capita growth has averaged 2% p.a. So we can't really expect wages to increase faster than that. How long can house-prices and rent rise at twice that rate?

Renting vs. Buying Simulation

It seems to me that the best way to address the financial aspects of the renting vs. buying conundrum is to use simulations. There are too many variables and complications for most people including me to get a handle on this problem analytically. Of course you need to make a lot of assumptions but these can be adjusted in a "sensitivity analysis" to see what effect each assumption has. My initial assumptions are as follows:



Both the renter and the homebuyer start off at age 30 with a disposable monthly income of $5000 and savings of $40,000. The homebuyer uses all this as a downpayment on a house with a 30 year mortgage. The renter invests the money in a taxable account with an after tax rate of return of 9% and pays rent of $1500 for an identical house (which isn't too far off for some of the bubble areas). House prices and rents rise at 4% per annum and wages at 5% p.a. Initially I assume that the homebuyer spends the rest of their after tax income and the renter spends an identical amount. The renter saves the remainder in the taxable account. Initially the homebuyer can't save any extra money but as the homebuyer's mortgage payments do not increase (but property taxes etc. do) gradually they can afford to make some additional savings which they also put in a taxable account. Both the renter and homebuyer increase their spending at the same rate as wages increase. I run the simulation till the end of the mortgage:



At age 60 the renter has a net worth of $4.74 million and the homeowner $3.88 million. Obviously there are possible assumptions and scenarios which would result in the homeowner ending up ahead in net worth terms. But these assumptions seem pretty typical to me and result in the renter coming out ahead.

Let me know if there are particular scenarios you want me to check out or I can even e-mail you the spreadsheet.

New Trading Strategy Working So Far/"Subprime Woes"

My new trading strategy is to hold a minimal or small position overnight (currently equivalent to 1100 QQQQ shares) and to increase my position only when I am actively looking at the market. The previous strategy was to hold a larger overnight position and only to hold the minimum position during regular trading hours when I wasn't available to trade. This was the so-called "overnight trading. Recently I haven't been feeling confident enough to do this. Well, I did make money today going short in a mostly up-market. So that's a good start.

Some of my investments are now not looking like such good ideas. Specifically (there are others :)), Newcastle and Hudson City Bankcorp. The idea was that these were two of the better real estate investments and I would hedge them by shorting IYR in a "pair trade". The bottom line is the hedge has been insufficient. The main question concerns NCT. Is it likely to implode like the Bear Stearns funds? Or is the selling overdone? Is it a buy, hold, or sell? I don't know.

How Will Moving to Australia Affect My Investment Choices?

There are two main ways that an international move of this sort should affect investment choices:

1. Differences in tax policy - I don't believe in arranging investments to minimize taxes. Rather one should choose investments that maximize net worth (for a given willingness to bear risk). Taxes will affect the net worth outcome but are only one factor. Nevertheless differences in tax policy are important.

2. Differences in accessible investments - For example, as an Australian resident I will again have access to Australian IPOs and adding new investments to Australian mutual funds. I am likely to do both to some degree.

In this post I'll discuss some more about the influences of tax policy on my future investment choices:

Margin interest I'll probably increase my margin borrowing in the long-run as Australia lets you deduct margin interest at your marginal rate whether your investments made any money that year or not. In the U.S. margin interest is directly deductible against investment income. If you didn't do well that year you have to carry the expense forward to following years. So I've been a bit more cautious on using margin. Still there are often cheaper ways of getting leverage than actually using a margin loan. These included levered (geared) mutual funds, options, and futures. So I won't be overdoing it.

U.S. Dividend Paying Stocks As a U.S. resident most dividends are taxed at the Federal rate of 15%. As an Australian resident I will need to pay a 30% with-holding tax in the U.S. I can claim this as a foreign tax credit in Australia but I'll need to pay tax at my marginal rate on the dividend. That is likely to be 30% at first but could be 40% or higher if my income rises. I'll pay lower or similar rates on long-term capital gains (no U.S. with-holding). So I am more likely to choose a low or non-dividend paying U.S. stock over one that pays a high yield.

Australian Stocks Stocks that pay dividends based on Australian sourced profits are highly tax advantaged in Australia. You receive a credit for the tax paid by the company. The company tax is 30%. So if your marginal rate is 30% you pay no tax on the dividend. If your rate is above 30% you pay the difference between the two rates. Things get more interesting when you lever a portfolio. The interest is effectively deducted against the dividends and you end up with excess credits that can offset other taxes. I'll be more likely to invest in higher yielding Australian stocks either directly or through Australian mutual funds. One interesting twist is that listed investment companies (the equivalent of closed end funds) can invest outside Australia but are deemed as earning Australian profits and the dividends that they issue have franking credits attached. The leading example is Platinum Capital, which I already invest in.

From an economic perspective there really isn't any difference between investing through the listed investment company or a mutual fund which passes all earnings through pre-tax. Actually, there are advantages to the mutual fund structure as long-term capital gains are taxed at a lower rate. The LIC pays 30% tax on its profit and then distributes a dividend with a credit but no other concessional tax rate. So the total tax bill to company and investor combined is higher! With leverage though, the LIC's tax credits can offset taxes on other income the investor earns.

However, it is structured though there is double taxation of foreign dividends but not of dividends from actual economic activity in Australia.

U.S. Mutual Funds I think I can still invest in these but all distributions are subject to U.S. with-holding. I should be able to claim that tax back in Australia. There are very complex rules governing investments in foreign mutual funds. This can include paying tax on unrealized gains at the top marginal rate. Generally if you hold less than $A50k in foreign mutual funds you are exempt from the rules. Most U.S. mutual funds now also appear to be exempt. But it's not clear to me yet whether you can pay the lower long-term CGT rate on capital gains distributions from the funds. Given this, I won't be making extra investments in U.S. mutual funds in the near future. Employer sponsored retirement funds are also exempt. I plan to keep my 403b with TIAA-CREF and my employer to avoid any issues.

Individual Retirement Accounts Australia taxes non-employer sponsored foreign retirement accounts as if they had no retirement status at all. Probably next year I will close my Roth IRA. I will need to pay a 30% with-holding tax (but no penalty) on the profits for doing this. But I should be able to claim this back in Australia while if I just transfer the fund units to a non-retirement account without redeeming them paying no CGT in Australia. Actually, it could make sense to cash out the 403b once I'm a non-resident too - I'd pay a 30% withholding tax that was reclaimable in Australia and then 15-20% capital gains in Australia. We could then maybe make an aftertax contribution to an Australian superannuation fund where earnings would be taxed at 15% in perpetuity or just keep it in a non-retirement account. This will need careful analysis. One thing I would need to understand is how distributions from a 403b would be taxed in Australia. I would think that selling the units should be subject to capital gains rather than ordinary income tax rates?

Futures Trading The U.S. taxes futures trading at a concessional rate, while Australia doesn't. But it is more flexible (24/5) and cheaper than trading ETFs so I probably won't be likely to reduce my futures trading.

So the bottom line is there is a mix of things where I'll be cautious until I understand them better and others where a small change is likely to happen over time. No dramatic moves.

Please let me know if I made a mistake in anything!

Buying vs. Renting Again

A very good article on buying vs. renting.

Rule #1: Don't Lose Money

Is a famous saying of Warren Buffett. Actually, it's OK to lose money as long as you don't lose too much. To illustrate this point I simulated the equity curve of my Interactive Brokers account assuming that on each losing trade I only lost half what I actually lost. So I would have made just as many bad trades but recognized my error in half the time. The gains are unchanged:



The current profits in the account would be more than triple what I have now. The average gain per contract traded is still "only" $35, but the win/loss $ ratio is now 1.64. The percentage of trades that win is unchanged at 61%. The t-statistic for trades in NQ is now the unbelievably significant value of 7.48 (currently a respectable 2.12) and the Sharpe ratio of weekly returns on the account is 4.24 (currently 1.42). Obviously lower levels of loss mitigation will lead to results somewhere in between these two extremes. This shows the immense importance of recognizing losing trades fast. The difficulty is that many trades that are down a little eventually win. So maybe this is unrealistic. So I repeated this exercise assuming all losses are the size they really were unless I lost more than $200 per contract. All those losses are truncated at $200 per contract:



The equity curve looks pretty similar. Now profits are around twice their actual level. The average gain per contract traded is $24 and the win/loss $ ratio is 1.08. The t-statistic for trades in NQ is 4.83 and the Sharpe ratio of weekly returns on the account is 3.73. I think this is a realistic goal. Holding onto more winners longer is obviously desirable too, but just cutting losses could be easier. In theory at least.

How Much Does it Cost to Move to Australia?

I just agreed with a moving company to go ahead for an August 3rd pickup of my stuff. The cost: $4175 including insurance against loss for door to door to Canberra. I've also spent $1146 on a one way plane ticket. There will be plenty more costs. Snork Maiden will have similar costs but the moving will be covered by her employer up till $A5000 and her plane fare too. They are also paying for two weeks of accommodation for us when we get there ($A525 a week).

Need to Try Something Different

Today was meant to be a big trading day with lots of news releases, the FOMC minutes, and Google earnings. But I didn't sleep last night and just closed out another trade at a loss. What I'm doing is not working both in practice and psychologically. There is also the stress caused by my whole visa and moving situation and undoubtedly the fact that I am no longer earning a salary is a major influence even though I have plenty of funds. The model is performing very badly this month. But I am doing even worse. At this point my Interactive Brokers account is down another 5% this week so far. Several of my investments have also been falling. The inexorable rise in the Australian Dollar makes my USD net worth look like it's growing, it doesn't look as good in AUD. I think I should take a break for the rest of this week from trading. Rest and get most of the rest of my packing completed. Then when I come back to trading just do day trades, using the model and intraday charts for guidance until I can rebuild my confidence. I can't handle holding these overnight trades at the moment. And do quite small trades to start with. The main thing is to rebuild my confidence in this next period, not lose money, rather than really try to make money. Well that's the plan.

The area circled on this chart is the track record so far in July:



After the initial loss I thought I was getting to grips with things. Until the last couple of days. At least the recent loss was trading according to the model, which turned out to be wrong, which is better than the cause of the initial loss when I was trading against the model. There are also plenty of losses in my Ameritrade account. So this isn't the complete picture.

Equity Curve Generator

Corey linked to this interesting Applet. It seems to have some built in assumption about the variance of the amount won or lost.

Plug in Win/loss ratio of 0.85 and Win per cent of 0.61 to see my performance so far trading NQ futures. If I stick to that I should do OK. This is especially cheering after another dumb trade this evening (in Australian futures). I knew my models weren't any good for trading the Aussie futures, but I still tried to do it instead of just doing a very short-term opportunistic trade based on very short-term technicals, which has worked so far. Within a minute I knew I was wrong, but hung on.... Can't seem to do anything right this month.

Economics of Homeownership

The naive thinking in this kind of article is just poor economics. It's the way most people think though. Yes it's true that the homebuyer's mortgage payment falls in real terms over time and eventually goes to zero while the renter's rent will rise over time. But:

1. Property taxes and maintenance will rise with inflation over time just like rent.

2. As you pay down the mortgage you tie up capital in the house. This capital has an opportunity cost in foregone investment returns. This implicit cost never goes away.

3. The value of the house may rise over time but so will the value of alternative investments.

The bottom line is that there aren't many free lunches out there... A renter does need to invest the cash that would have gone into principal payments in an investment that can in the future pay their rent. Such an investment may be risky but need not probably be very risky in order to keep up.

Home ownership is beneficial if someone enjoys the control of owning their own home (in terms of remodeling etc. and not dealing with a landlord) and/or finds it hard to be disciplined to save the money that would have gone into paying off the mortgage.

Umm

Big down day in the market and I still manage to lose money going long... what is wrong with me? First two trades went OK but the third lost more than the first two. Ameritrade's site is also down now. Old news. Moving guy came today to look at my stuff. At least that went OK. WIll have quote by Friday.

P.S. 7:34PM

I had the right idea - that the market would bounce back. I just gave up much too soon. After the official close there have been huge gyrations in the futures too. People are saying this is options expiry related. Anyway, I am now short NQ (NASDAQ 100) again @ 2059. The model is now officially short. Today it was long.

First Australian Futures Trade

Did my first actual trade of the Australian Share Price Index Futures. Using my Interactive Brokers account and trading on the Sydney Futures Exchange. Sold short at 6385 and closed at 6380. Five Australian Dollars commission each way. Each point is worth 25 Aussie Dollars. So a profit of $A115. Now that 115 dollars is sitting in my account separately from my US dollar balance of more than $17k. You can change it into US Dollars. If you lose they extend a loan to you in that currency. I guess they charge margin interest on that though they don't pay interest on balances less than $10k. I did do some simulated trades a while ago.

Also went short NQ at today's close. An earlier generation model gives a very powerful sell signal on the NASDAQ. There was a buy in October 2002 and nothing till this month using a monthly model. But it has no sell signal in any time frame for the S&P 500 which is weird. Subprime mortgage backed securities really plummeted today. The BBB grades have already fallen. Today was the turn of even AAA rated tranches. This could be a fundamental trigger for a selloff in the stockmarket. On the other hand treasury bonds rose strongly. Flight to quality?

Trying to Model the All Ordinaries and S&P 500

I tried applying the same model I am using for trading the NASDAQ 100 to the All Ordinaries and S&P 500. The results were very poor for the All Ordinaries - buy and hold performed better, while for the S&P 500 the model might add value but better results can be obtained by trading SPX using the trade directions generated by the NDX. I'm not surprised about the All Ordinaries as it is driven to such an extent by what happens in the US markets. Much of each day's move typically occurs overnight Australian time while the US market is open. The stochastic is rather noisy and hard to model. Recently, there has been much less noise... I think the S&P 500 is just not volatile enough relative to the NASDAQ. This is why I started trading the NASDAQ. In future work I might try modeling more than one index simultaneously. I expect there are gains to be had from that.

Housing Preferences

Been taking another look at Australian real estate sites for our desired location. We should be able to pay $A350-$A450 per week in rent ($US1300-$US1700 per month). These are for houses and apartments in what is known as Inner North Canberra. Snork Maiden and I currently pay $US750 and $US600 in rent each. Of course we could pay less if we either went for a smaller apartment or were prepared to live in a more remote suburb. But we want plenty of space - at least two bedrooms and preferably three, to allow each of us to have our own office space and we want to live close to Snork Maiden's work and to stores etc. so we don't need to use a car on a day to day basis if we don't want to. What I noticed was that rents on apartments in new buildings with perceived luxury features such as granite countertops and gyms/pools in the building etc. can go for rents that are higher than older but larger apartments and houses in equally good locations. So this is where we have room to be "frugal" in getting good value of money.

For example, take this one bedroom two year old apartment (In an ideal location IMO almost in the city center just across the street from where I used to live):



or this three bedroom house:



which is one block from a small local shopping center and within walking distance of Snork Maiden's work.

Which would you choose?

Buying a property of this type would cost around $A500k ($US425k) which assuming a real cost of carry of 8% would be about $US2800 per month. There is no mortgage interest deduction in Australia for owner-occupied housing but there isn't any capital gains tax on it either.

Professional Trader?

My first two weeks as a supposedly professional trader (as I'm no longer earning a salary) are not going well. I've lost $3800 or 16% on my trading accounts. If that rate of loss is maintained this would be my worst month in the last year. The dollar loss is less than the worst due to having less capital allocated to trading at present. In my futures account the weekly losses are $1751 and $38 or 9.3% and 0.2%. I guess that trend is slightly encouraging. The model is having a bad month. It's up 1.85% when NDX is up 5.07%. That was the cause of this week's performance. Last week was pure stupidity in trading against the model and then not getting out of the trade fast enough. Stress due to the visa status and job-quitting issues has made it hard to focus. I need from now on to be focused, systematic, and disciplined in my approach or not try to trade.

I Wasn't Paid

today, which is great news. So I am effectively already on unpaid leave from my job. I went to the local immigration office this morning. Luckily there was no wait and I got the form for a change of status to a B Visa. The officer though advised not to resign before receiving the new visa. This can take up to 45 days apparently and looks pretty bureaucratic. Given I am already on unpaid leave and BCIS are unlikely to ever check with all the other things they have go on seems I can just write a letter with a September termination date and keep going as I am. But I am still waiting for my lawyer's response to my findings this morning before going ahead.

Terrminating Green Card Application

Just faxed this letter to Sydney. Hope it does the trick. There is no point in pursuing a green card if I don't intend to stay in the US. For one thing I would have to pay US taxes on my worldwide income. Big hassle. And a big hassle getting completing the last few steps to get the visa.

We met with the immigration lawyer today. After much back and forth discussion she told me to go to the local immigration office tomorrow and ask a couple of questions. If the answers are positive I'll apply for a tourist/business visa and resign my job tomorrow. If the answers are not positive then she'll look at another option. She agreed that there are risks to trying the leaving and re-entering the country option. Snork Maiden headed back interstate to get the medical for her Australian visa done. Did some more bad trades (the model was short on a massive up day) and some more packing...

June Report

I finally have the data together in almost final form to be able to present to you my net worth and investment performance report for June. All figures are in US Dollars unless otherwise stated. This month saw stronger performance than last month, net worth again increased, and investment returns remained positive for the ninth month running.

Income and Expenditure



Expenditure was $3,622 which included a plane ticket to Australia. Current non-investment income consisted of $561 in reimbursements. I was paid two months salary in May already. 403b contributions totaled $3,021 due to delayed deposit of last month's doubled contributions. I stopped contributing to my Roth pending the move to Australia. Non-retirement investment returns were strong at $9698 but more than half of that came from the continuing increase in the Australian Dollar. Retirement investment returns came in at $3299, almost entirely due to the change in the exchange rate.

Net Worth Performance
Net worth rose by $US12,166 to $US445,261 and in Australian Dollars gained $A866 to $A524,391. Non-retirement accounts reached almost $US245k. Retirement accounts rose to $US200k.

Investment Performance
Investment return in US Dollars was 3.00% vs. a 0.26% loss in the MSCI (Gross) World Index, which I use as my overall benchmark and a 1.52% loss in the S&P 500 total return index. Non-retirement accounts gained 4.06%. Returns in Australian Dollars terms were 0.35% and 1.36% respectively.



The contributions of the different investments and trades are as follows:



The returns on all the individual investments are net of foreign exchange movements. Foreign currency gains appear at the bottom of the table together with the sum of all other investment income and expenses - mainly net interest. Stock index trading (NQ/QQQQ and ES/SPY) produced nice results this month while long-term investments lost the most with the weakness in the market.

Progress on Trading Goal
Trading in my US accounts netted $2,691 - a 10.7% return on trading capital. The model gained 4.1% while the NDX rose 0.3%. My goal for the year is to end up with at least as much in my three accounts - regular trading, Roth IRA, and IB - as I've put into them. The accounts have reached $55,233 with $61.5k contributed - so I still need to gain just over $6k. Since the beginning of the year the trading capital gained 82%, the NDX has gained 10% and the theoretical model gained 41%.

Asset Allocation
At the end of the month the portfolio had a beta of 0.49. Allocation was 34% in "passive alpha", 63% in "beta", 5% allocated to trading, 6% to industrial stocks, 6% to liquidity, and I was borrowing 14%. I've brought my Australian Dollar exposure down to 62.2% from 69.5% in January. The goal is to eventually reach 50%.

Powercut

We were going to spend yesterday on packing, dealing with Snork Maiden's visa issues and then maybe getting around to some work on her PhD dissertation due in mid-August. But around 11am there was a powercut and little of those things happened. After figuring out that it was restricted to at most our town and there was power on the other side of the river we decided to take the food from our fridge and have a barbeque in a park (we have electric everything in the apartment). This is the first time we've done that activity together. We did get to Starbucks later to do some "work" (Panera Bread was closed) and then shifted into entertainment mode (as if we weren't in it already). We really liked the movie "Once".

I checked the explanation the IRS sent about my tax refund. I made mistakes on my return and they made mistakes too in interpreting it. I have it figured out now.

Visa Application Lodged

Anyway, yesterday, Snork Maiden finally got her visa application lodged for her work permit (457 Business Visa) for Australia. Her employer already was approved in nominating her, so this was her side the story. Much more user-friendly than the US, everything is online and no lawyers needed. Today she needs to work on setting up an appointment for a medical examination for the visa. Nearest approved doctors are 150 miles away but she'll phone them and ask for advice/recommendation and if necessary travel to them. My employer is worried about paying me on 15th July - seems they need a resignation letter to stop payment but there won't be one till Thursday evening after I meet the immigration lawyer. Thursday is her regular office hours for university clients. Otherwise, completed boxes are gradually piling up around the apartment and the next three days I will be mostly working on that. Last night I also put a trade on (short QQQQ and NQ). So far so good, but will be tracking that too. I'd taken a break from that after losing a pile of money in the first few days of the month, trading against the model.

If the lawyer tells me I need to leave the country I will probably fly out by Sunday or so and go to Israel to visit my mother and brother and family. I lived in Israel myself for several years. Our family is rather international - each of us has multiple passports in different combinations. I have British and Australian, while my mother has Australian and Israeli. My brother has all three. My father when he was alive was British and Israeli. He was born in Germany though, but lost his German citizenship (of course he could have reclaimed it after the Second World War if he had wanted to).

Contingency Plans

Latest development is I will meet the university's immigration lawyer (she also worked for me on all my visas) this coming Thursday and come to a conclusion on what I should do. I actually wrote a resignation letter and gave it to the Dean's secretary on Thursday and then my chairman decided to try to see if we could do something better. I went back to the secretary and took the letter back. Luckily the Dean wasn't in.

I didn't sleep for two nights and was really freaking out. I lost more money on Friday when Interactive Brokers fell 8%. But now Snork Maiden drove down to visit, despite she being even busier, and I've cheered up a lot. Today we will rent a dolley thingy from U-Haul and move everything from my office on campus to my apartment. Then if I need to go to Canada and something goes wrong and I can't get back into the country all my stuff will be in one place ready for her moving company to pick up and take to her town and from there to Aus. Probable anyway that we'll move all of my stuff up there late in August using a U-Haul. This will be after she submits her PhD dissertation but before she defends it. I can help with packing up there then before flying back down here again.

The above post was posted Saturday but there were problems with Blogger.... so I'm reposting it. Sunday I hurt my toe while packing and we had to go the Emergency Room at the local hospital - so lots of drama. Also now I'm thinking of going to Israel next week instead of Canada!

Do I Need to Go to Canada?

In a couple of e-mails with the immigration lawyer over July 4th the conclusion seems to be that I should resign from my job ASAP. The neat solution where I stay on H1B status till September is out. She recommends that I leave the country and come back as a tourist for my final two months here. I should have the plane ticket for Australia very soon to be able to prove that I intend to exit again if necessary. I'm still afraid they'll refuse me re-entry. Snork Maiden thinks that if I don't tell the US Consulate in Australia that I intend to give up on the green card application then I should be able to stay in the US while I'm still seeking a green card. I just e-mailed the lawyer asking whether that's an option or not. Even if I resign in the next couple of days BCIS isn't going to know for a while that my H1B is terminated. But I will need to book a trip to Canada or wherever ASAP if the green-card seeker option is out.

A couple of years ago I told someone that I thought I'd be happier on the day that I resigned my position than on the day I got tenure. Back then, I had a heavy heart when I submitted the tenure file because I didn't want to stay here in this town all my life. When I heard that I got tenure I felt relief that I wasn't fired. But now I'm not happy due to this struggle to try to set up a better transition for both sides, which has failed and my anxiety about the visa issues. So I am feeling a little bitter as well as anxious. So tomorrow I probably will hand in my formal resignation and wait for instructions from my lawyer on what to do next.

If I do need to leave the country should I just take a trip to Canada (very near) or go visit family in the Europe area? Should I fly in and out of Snork Maiden's town (can leave my keys with her then and tell immigration that's my address in the US) or in and out of here where my ticket to Australia is routed from?

Independence Day

It's July 4th and I'm at my office on campus. But strangely enough this is a sign that I am independent and free. To some degree. I don't have a job, Snork Maiden is 150 miles away, and the rest of my family half way around the world. So today is as good a day as any to continue working on sorting and packing stuff for the move to Australia. So far I have been working on recycling, trashing, giving away, or deciding to keep. Haven't actually packed anything yet. But I think that will be next as it is getting harder to decide on what to give away and so I should pack stuff I really want to keep next and eventually zigzag into the grey area. Letting go of things can be hard. There are books that I've had twenty years - they're not useful to me now, probably they are in a library somewhere, so rationally I should let go of them. But when I look at them I remember the times and places were I was using them. This in my mind is connected to the Buddhist idea that "attachment" and clinging is a (or the) source of suffering. We realize that things are impermanent and we need to move on through life but still want to hold onto the past. Many people are too afraid to make changes and don't move on and stay stuck in suboptimal situations. But many who move on suffer from the giving up of the old. I have let go of a lot of things in life and now sometimes don't start new things because I know I'll need to let go. Sometimes this is good as those things are unnecessary and sometimes it's bad because I miss out on things that could be worthwhile. This move to Australia involves giving up many old things and starting new ones too. One part of me wants to be very radical and give up most of my "stuff" as well as my involvement in academia. The other part wants to hold on to the most possible. In the end I am going to compromise somewhere in the middle. My personality type likes to keep options open as well as explore new alternatives - to make radical moves slowly.

Ups and Downs

Feeling a bit down due to doing stupid trades against the model (I know these trades are wrong and stupid and still do them) I went downstairs to go out for a walk and found a check from the IRS for $3006.99. Now this is surprising as I sent them $400.36. I can't imagine how I got my taxes so wrong. Anyway, they include a card "about your refund check" which says they will send an explanation in a few days. If they are right then I will probably need to send an amended return to New York State as I sent them $1259.90! Also odd is why the IRS withdrew $400.36 from my account electronically and then send me a paper check?

Update on Passive and Trading Income

As June 30 is the end of the Australian tax year when mutual funds make major distributions and provide information on the tax treatment of distributions it will take a while to come up with final figures for June. Preliminary results show a return on investment of 2.98% while the markets went down. Using my fund manager's estimated distributions I've come up with an estimate of passive income for the first half of the year together with an update on trading income (all in US Dollars of course):



I don't know if I can replicate these figures for the second half of the year. I expect that passive income will be a lot lower as the takeovers will be lower and probably mutual fund distributions will be too. Dividends are likely to be higher. Anyway, these kinds of numbers give me some confidence about our move to Australia. Snork Maiden will be earning about $A65k (+15.4% retirement contribution on top of that) so our household income will be in the $US120k per year range if these numbers hold up.

Trading the Model: First Annual Report

It's been one year now since I started trying to trade the model - time for an assessment. I didn't trade much this month but did pretty well - a profit of $2691 or 11.95% on capital deployed. When I first started trading the model I had two good months followed by four losing months and now six winning months. The model itself only had one losing month in this past year (May):



The model and the market have similar standard deviations but the model returns far more - a sign of a very high alpha. My returns have been similar to the model but my volatility far higher. After the losing streak I cut back on the amount of capital I was using resulting in lower profits for given rates of return in the second half of the year. Obviously, I am very far from faithfully replicating the model, but as I'll show in the following, I think my performance is improving.



As this chart shows the model returned 102% for the year vs.23% for NDX and my performance of 76%. The model's return is entirely unlevered. Looking at a daily chart:



we can see that some short periods when the model got short correctly added a lot to returns. The only ways the model can add value is by shorting when the market goes down and by stopping out of long positions when the market goes down more than 1.25% in a day. Obviously the model makes mistakes too, but over time they are less important than its correct moves. I don't have daily data for my account, but I can show you trade by trade results for NQ futures contracts since November:



This shows clearly how my trading has been far more erratic than either the market or the model. The following chart compares my monthly returns to the model:



Months below the line show poor performance relative to the model and points above the line relatively good performance. The last three months have been three of the best by this measure. My performance has a beta of 1.67 to the model with a monthly alpha of -4.9%. This means that when the model returns zero I lose nearly 5%. But looking at the very small sample of just the last six months I have a monthly alpha of 5.3%. Relative to the market the results are clearer - I have a beta of -0.97 and a monthly alpha of 7%. This alpha is significantly greater than zero with a probability of 97%. So I do particularly well when the market declines. The model's beta in the last year is around -0.16 with a monthly alpha of 6.4%. So it too has a short bias.

In conclusion, I think I am gradually learning to trade with this model - my results are beginning to be statistically significantly positive and nonrandom.