Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Golden Bear Day

Today was a great day for being a bear. However, I closed all my index shorts towards the end of the day. The market closed at the low of the day and near the low of the last five days and so there is a good chance of a bounce tomorrow though the model is still formally short. Also there is a very nice 5 waves down from Friday's top. I did keep my real estate related shorts (LEH, BZH, IYR, TOL). The Case-Shiller house price index reported today - all cities that they cover are now down year on year. The Fed released the minutes of the last FOMC meeting, which essentially said nothing much. There was also a consumer confidence number which just met expectations. Basically the technicals are pointing down and so the market is going down. I don't know if we are immediately heading to a new low or whether this is wave B of a B wave that started with the August 16th low or what. I'd think we need more time before retesting the August 16th low based on the weekly charts, McClellan Summation, and past experience. But you never know. There's also a chance that we won't retest it but I'd rate that pretty low.

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